On April 24, Kenyan pharmacist Joseph Njer Airo inspects boxes of antiretroviral drugs labeled “USAID,” from the last donation before the funding cuts.
Michel Lunanga/via Getty Images
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Michel Lunanga/via Getty Images
The Trump administration is formally shutting down the United States Agency for International Development today, after cancelling 83% of its programs earlier this year.
The administration says the agency has misspent billions in funds and “has little to show since the end of the Cold War.”
That argument clashes with a new study published Monday in the medical journal, the Lancet. The study estimates that USAID programs have saved over 90 million lives over the past two decades. The researchers also estimate that if the current cuts continue through 2030, 14 million people who might have otherwise lived could die.
“Is [USAID] a good use of resources? We found that the average taxpayer has contributed about 18 cents per day to USAID,” says James Macinko, a health policy researcher at UCLA and study co-author. “For that small amount, we’ve been able to translate that into saving up to 90 million deaths around the world.”
Since USAID was formed in 1961, it’s funded a wide range of programs, from giving school lunches to children in Haiti to distributing HIV medication across sub-Saharan Africa. While many studies have analyzed narrower slices of USAID’s portfolio, including maternal mortality and child health, no peer-reviewed research had attempted to take stock of the agency’s overall impact.
As the Trump administration started cutting programs, Macinko and researchers from Europe, South America and Africa got to work assessing just what USAID’s impact has been.
“What we really tried to draw out was, how did the funding from USAID influence a set of outcomes?” says Macinko. “We were most interested in looking at mortality, to really be able to quantify the impact of these investments.”
The team analyzed demographic and death data from 133 different countries that received aid between 2001 and 2021. The team conducted a study comparing deaths in countries that received varying levels of USAID aid, considering factors like population, income, education, and more to estimate the impact of the aid. They found that high levels of USAID funding were linked to a 15% reduction in deaths overall, with a significant 32% reduction in children under five. The most substantial reductions were seen in deaths from HIV/AIDS, malaria, and neglected tropical diseases. Unfortunately, the Trump administration’s cuts to foreign aid have halted many USAID programs, potentially leading to between 8 and 19 million deaths by 2030. The study provides a comprehensive look at the impact of USAID and highlights the potential consequences of funding cuts. Other countries and organizations also contribute to foreign aid, making it challenging to isolate the specific impact of USAID. However, the study emphasizes the importance of bipartisan support and concerted effort in saving lives through aid programs. The findings underscore the human cost of policy decisions on funding for lifesaving programs.
