PASSAIC COUNTY, New Jersey — As the New Jersey governor’s race heats up, Passaic County emerges as a critical battleground. This area, pivotal for President Donald Trump’s unexpected success with Latino voters—who favored him in 2020, marking a historic GOP first in decades—serves as a litmus test for the Latino electorate’s loyalty to the Republican Party in 2024, particularly in the absence of Trump himself on the ballot.
However, a crucial question looms: Will Latino voters actually turn out?
With Election Day fast approaching, concerns mount regarding the effectiveness of campaigns led by Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli in engaging the vibrant yet swing-prone Latino communities within this northern New Jersey enclave. Local strategists and leaders have voiced their worries to POLITICO, noting a palpable lack of enthusiasm in Passaic County, where outreach efforts directed toward Latino voters appear to be falling short.
“They haven’t been proactive enough,” lamented a Democratic strategist from Passaic, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to provide an honest assessment.
Within Passaic, Latino leaders and organizers are increasingly aware of a troubling reality: this critical bloc of voters may opt out of voting altogether this year. Historically, like many minority groups, Latino voters demonstrate lower engagement levels during off-year elections.
“I’m asking you, please, do not stay home,” urged Passaic Mayor Hector Lora during a rally for Sherrill in Paterson last Sunday. “New Jersey is watching Passaic County, and the nation is watching New Jersey,” echoed local councilmember Christine Tiseo at the same event.
The signs of dwindling enthusiasm are hard to miss. A stroll down Main Avenue, which links Passaic to Clifton and Paterson, reveals a conspicuous absence of campaign posters or early voting notifications. The primary library in Clifton, designated as an early voting site, has been under construction for months, its temporary closure marked by large black-and-white signs. Early voters must navigate to a rear entrance to access the polling location.
“How the hell do you expect these people to vote?” Jeannette Mestre, a Clifton resident, exclaimed to POLITICO while attending Sherrill’s event.
The most visible campaign activity in recent days has come from canvassers with Make the Road New Jersey, who have committed months to campaigning for Sherrill and engaging thousands of residents to encourage voting. During their third door-knocking excursion in Passaic—where Trump garnered 52 percent of the vote last year—two canvassers pointed out the stark lack of visibility from either candidate’s campaign.
“It feels like they’re literally trying to discourage people from voting,” remarked Lori Gonzalez, a volunteer with Make the Road. She estimated that out of 60 voters her group connects with, around 40 might not make it to the polls. During Thursday’s rainy canvassing efforts, a pattern emerged: while determined voters—typically younger individuals who had already made voting plans—expressed support for Sherrill, many others were undecided or outright unwilling to participate.
This trend is reflected in broader voting statistics: Passaic County’s early voting turnout stands at a mere 13.4 percent for Democrats, significantly lagging six points behind the state average, with mail-in ballot requests similarly trailing. These figures underscore the anxieties felt by Latino strategists and local officials regarding the community’s lack of motivation to vote.
“We fought hard in the primaries, but now there’s an evident apathy,” noted a local Democratic leader regarding Sherrill’s campaign. “I wish we had seen more engagement in the Latino communities—where people feel valued. While I believe they care, the campaign isn’t effectively communicating that. [Sherrill’s] just hopping from event to event in a vast state.”
The Democrats posit that many voters in Latino strongholds like Passaic County experienced election fatigue in 2024; ineffective messaging led them to either select Trump as a change agent for their finances or simply abstain from voting. Regaining Passaic would not only mitigate Republican gains but also equip Democrats with a tested narrative for the midterms.
Republicans, on the other hand, are banking on the belief that their success with Latino voters last year transcended Trump’s influence and signals a broader realignment of Latino and working-class voters nationwide, united by shared values. “Latinos are waking up to the realization that current policies have failed them, and the Democratic Party has taken them for granted,” Ciattarelli shared with POLITICO from his campaign bus after a rally in Clifton last Saturday.
Ciattarelli’s campaign has actively engaged in Latino parades and established connections with Latino churches and small businesses, as noted by Kennith Gonzalez, head of the campaign’s Hispanic outreach. In contrast, Sherrill’s campaign has emphasized building alliances with local Latino leaders and organizations to disseminate her message more effectively, according to campaign vice chair Patricia Campos-Medina.
Yet, regardless of each campaign’s approach, many potential voters remain overlooked, according to Rafael Collazo, executive director of the UnidosUS Action PAC. “It’s difficult to quantify, but a significant number of Latino voters aren’t adequately reached by either side’s networks,” he remarked.
Despite substantial investments in Spanish-language advertisements and media outreach, local leaders and strategists assert that Sherrill’s campaign has not sufficiently engaged with the nuanced needs of hyperlocal Latino communities. One anonymous Democratic strategist candidly expressed that Sherrill’s approach resembles a suburban campaign applied statewide: “It’s as if they’ve taken a suburban strategy and tried to implement it across the entire state.” This concern about enthusiasm surrounding Sherrill’s campaign has been echoed in previous POLITICO reports.
Immigration issues are also surfacing as a potential flashpoint in this election. Residents of Passaic, when discussing the election, consistently cite immigration—specifically, the specter of ICE raids and deportations—as their primary concern. While the county is approximately 42 percent Latino, specific cities like Passaic boast Latino populations nearing 70 percent, with significant concentrations of Puerto Ricans, Dominicans, and Peruvians. Ciattarelli has been careful in his alignment with MAGA while moderating some of his stances on immigration, though recent polling indicates a decline in Trump’s appeal among Latino voters.
“This is the first substantial temperature check since the last election,” Carlos Odio, a Latino analyst and pollster with Equis Research, noted, underscoring the significance of Passaic as a site for evaluating shifts from 2020 to 2024.
As canvassing efforts ramp up in these final days, Ciattarelli’s team will be door-knocking in Paterson and nearby Woodbridge, while Make the Road continues its outreach for Sherrill in Passaic through Tuesday. Sherrill is also slated for a get-out-the-vote rally in Clifton this Saturday.
Ultimately, the campaigns will discover if their efforts truly resonated with Latino voters come Tuesday. For her part, Sherrill is making an earnest appeal, at least. In a Paterson high school gymnasium filled with supportive Latino volunteers, she addressed the crowd with passion.
“Necesito su voto, familia,” she implored in Spanish: I need your vote.
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