Both Nevada senators spurned their party. They were reading the room.

This week, Nevada’s two Democratic senators, Catherine Cortez Masto and Jacky Rosen, took a bold step to end the federal government shutdown, illustrating the evolving political landscape of a state that once seemed solidly blue. Home to a diverse, working-class population heavily reliant on tourism, Nevada is now a battleground for shifting allegiances.

In the ongoing national struggle for party dominance, Republicans are gaining ground in the Silver State.

Cortez Masto and Rosen aligned themselves with a coalition of eight Senate Democrats advocating for a resolution to the shutdown. Their decision was not merely a political maneuver; it was also a pragmatic response to the economic realities facing their constituents. Interviews with over a dozen political strategists, staffers, and elected officials revealed that while some Nevada Democrats were displeased, the senators’ actions were grounded in electoral strategy.

“Nevada isn’t so much a blue state as it is a swing state with a Democratic tilt and a Republican trend,” noted Mike Noble, a pollster specializing in the Southwest. “These senators are astutely gauging public sentiment; political brinkmanship doesn’t resonate well with the moderates.”

The GOP’s foothold in Nevada has been steadily strengthening over recent years. For the first time since 2007, Republicans surpassed Democrats in voter registration this year, largely due to a concerted effort by the Nevada Republican Party. Polls indicate that GOP Governor Joe Lombardo holds a slight lead in his reelection campaign, which is poised to be one of the most fiercely contested gubernatorial races in the upcoming cycle. Republicans are also eyeing the potential to flip three House seats held by Democrats in Nevada. In the 2024 elections, Donald Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win Nevada in two decades, defeating Kamala Harris by a margin of 3.1 points, while Rosen secured her reelection by a mere point.

“Nevada’s political climate has really tightened up,” remarked GOP strategist Robert Uithoven.

Both parties are aggressively courting the working-class demographic in Nevada. In 2024, Trump’s campaign targeted the state’s service, hospitality, and construction sectors with promises to eliminate taxes on tips and overtime—initiatives embedded in the GOP’s “Big Beautiful Bill.” His campaign also made substantial investments to reach out to Latino voters, who comprise one in five registered voters.

Meanwhile, Democrats are banking on the sluggish economy, GOP-supported healthcare cuts, and aggressive deportation policies during Trump’s tenure to regain the trust of anxious Nevadans. “When someone promises not to tax your tips, that resonates,” emphasized Alexis Hill, Chair of the Washoe County Commission and a contender in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. “As Democrats, we need to amplify that economic message and steer clear of corporate rhetoric.”

With an economy heavily tied to tourism and comprised mainly of hourly wage hospitality workers, Nevada has encountered a significant downturn in travel this year following a dramatic post-pandemic rebound. This, along with a sharp decline in construction jobs, has raised alarms among economists and local officials, who closely monitor the health of the economy through tourism metrics.

The state’s substantial dependence on federal assistance makes it particularly vulnerable to political shifts. The recent government shutdown, which froze the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), adversely affected 15 percent of Nevadans reliant on such benefits—one of the highest rates in the nation. Additionally, disruptions in air travel led to significant delays at Harry Reid International Airport in Las Vegas, with 198 delays recorded on a recent Saturday.

Ted Pappageorge, the influential secretary-treasurer of the Culinary Union, commended the senators for “clearly advocating for working-class individuals,” while emphasizing the urgent need to “resume government functions and restore benefits.”

“Ultimately, it boils down to who will stand by the working class,” he stated. “The Democratic party has been adrift lately, and voters have taken note.”

Both Cortez Masto and Rosen expressed their support for ending the shutdown due to its detrimental impact on workers. Cortez Masto, who previously voted to end the shutdown over a month ago, defended her recent decision, highlighting the strain on small businesses and workers. Rosen articulated a sense of urgency, mentioning that she reached a breaking point as she witnessed the dire consequences of withholding SNAP benefits and crippling the tourism sector by halting air travel.

“How can we maintain our stance when people are forced to scavenge for food because Donald Trump eliminated their SNAP benefits?” questioned an anonymous Rosen aide. “At some point, you end up harming the very people you aim to assist by perpetuating the Trump-inflicted suffering.”

Rosen is set for reelection in 2030, while Cortez Masto is up in 2028.

Scott Gavorsky, the GOP Elko County chair, predicted that the senators would have faced significant voter backlash had they chosen to prolong the shutdown, particularly in rural areas that have shifted rightward, helping Lombardo capture the governorship in 2022. “People have long memories here,” he remarked.

However, the senators are already encountering criticism. Some Nevada Democrats are frustrated by their decision to diverge from the caucus, especially after a month of party unity. Democratic State Assemblymember Selena La Rue Hatch reported receiving numerous concerns from constituents in her swing district in Washoe County, which includes Reno, regarding whether the party is genuinely opposing an overreaching administration.

“The overwhelming feedback I’ve received is shock, dismay, and concern that we’ve capitulated. What are we gaining from this?” she expressed.

A Democratic state party strategist, who requested anonymity to speak candidly, described the agreement with Republicans to vote on extending Affordable Care Act tax credits—central to the Democrats’ negotiations during the shutdown—as a silver lining.

“At the end of the day, this isn’t merely about political strategy; it’s about alleviating pain,” the strategist stated.

Nevada’s economy has been particularly susceptible to downturns, experiencing the highest unemployment rates in the nation during both the 2008 recession and the 2020 pandemic shutdown. Once lauded as one of the fastest-growing economies from 1970 to 2008, the state’s trajectory shifted abruptly as Trump’s rise mirrored Nevadans’ lingering economic pessimism. When Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak imposed a shutdown on the state’s casinos for 78 days during the pandemic, unemployment soared to 28 percent in April 2020.

“That sense of security was stripped away,” Woods explained. “It transformed the state into a battleground.”

With the 2024 midterms approaching, Republicans are intensifying their focus on Nevada, aiming to capture three seats, including that of Democrat Susie Lee, who represents a significant portion of workers on the Las Vegas Strip.

Yet, Trump’s success in Nevada was largely fueled by economic discontent, and recent polling indicates that Nevadans’ satisfaction levels are still quite low. An October poll from Noble Predictive Insights revealed that 50 percent of respondents believe the state is in worse shape now than four years ago, while only 24 percent feel it has improved. Their primary concerns center around affordable housing and inflation.

“The electorate is evidently more motivated by economic worries than ideological divisions at this point,” concluded Mike Noble, the pollster.