The ongoing affordability crisis that shook global politics last year continues to send shockwaves through some of the world’s largest democracies, wreaking havoc on the fortunes of incumbents and eroding long-standing political alliances.
Recent international polling by POLITICO reveals that voter discontent over persistent financial pressures remains a formidable political force. In five major economies, the POLITICO Poll shows that cost-of-living challenges persistently echo throughout the political landscape:
- In the United States, Donald Trump has returned to the political forefront on a wave of economic populism, yet a staggering 65 percent of voters feel that the cost of living has worsened over the past year.
- In the United Kingdom, voters ended 14 years of Conservative rule in 2024, with 77 percent asserting that their financial situation has deteriorated.
- In France, President Emmanuel Macron faces historically low approval ratings, with nearly half — 45 percent — of adults claiming the country is lagging behind its economic peers.
- In Germany, following a protracted economic struggle, former Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition crumbled last year, leaving 78 percent of respondents feeling the cost of living has worsened.
- In Canada, a post-pandemic affordability crisis sparked significant public discontent leading to the resignation of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau earlier this year, with 60 percent of adults indicating that the cost of living has reached an all-time high.
The findings from POLITICO and Public First’s inaugural joint international poll underscore the uphill battle many leaders face as they attempt to navigate the intertwined crises of economic and political discontent. Five years post-COVID, as the world grapples with competing conflicts and the rapid rise of AI, sizeable portions of the populace across the U.S., Canada, and Europe’s leading economies perceive the cost of living as one of the most pressing issues of our time.
However, as leaders attempt to address these affordability concerns, a prevailing sentiment suggests they could be doing more — yet they choose not to. This has left incumbent governments in a precarious position, struggling to mitigate the rising tide of economic anxiety while simultaneously managing the political backlash, which has opened the door for opposition parties to capitalize on economic messaging.
“It’s a tough sell for incumbents to campaign on these platforms,” remarked Javier Carbonell, a policy analyst at the European Policy Centre. “Currently, both center-left and center-right parties are viewed as the status quo and thus bear the brunt of public discontent.”
Widespread Pessimism About Rising Costs
Across the five surveyed countries, a pervasive sense of economic decline looms large.
In France, 82 percent of adults report that the cost of living has worsened over the past year, paralleled by 78 percent in Germany, 77 percent in the U.K., and 79 percent in Canada.
A significant majority in all five nations go even further, claiming that the current cost-of-living crisis is unprecedented.
Moreover, the poll indicates that many respondents view affordability not merely as a personal issue but as a systemic problem. For instance, majorities across these countries attribute affordability challenges to soaring prices rather than insufficient wages.
In the U.K., about two-thirds of adults believe the economy has deteriorated, surpassing the 46 percent who feel their personal financial situation has worsened. This trend is mirrored in France, Canada, and Germany, suggesting widespread economic anxieties that extend beyond individual circumstances.
While the European Union’s economy is projected to grow by 1.4 percent in 2025, Germany’s economy has weakened in recent years and is expected to stagnate this year. France’s efforts to tackle cost-of-living issues have resulted in a ballooning national debt, now nearing $4 trillion USD.
In the United Kingdom, these findings emerge amid sluggish economic growth, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer struggling to convince voters that his center-left Labour Party can alleviate living costs.
In Canada, deep-rooted anxieties are corroborated by federal inflation data, with Statistics Canada recently reporting a 2.2 percent increase in the consumer price index for November, nearly hitting the central bank’s target of 2 percent.
Economic Sentiments Influencing Politics
The voters’ economic perceptions are profoundly influencing political dynamics.
In 2024, Trump campaigned on economic issues without the burden of directly managing the economy. However, in recent months, public sentiment has begun to sour on his economic stewardship, emphasizing the challenge of convincing voters of progress amid ongoing cost-of-living concerns.
This sentiment of falling behind is particularly pronounced among European respondents in the POLITICO Poll, with nearly half of adults in Germany, France, and the U.K. asserting that their nations are “generally falling behind other comparable economies.”
This widespread pessimism has led many to disengage from the political process, as they see little prospect for change. For others, it has spurred a search for alternative political solutions.
“There’s a growing demand for anti-establishment politics,” Carbonell noted.
In Germany, Chancellor Friedrich Merz centered his campaign on economic revitalization, yet since assuming office, he has been preoccupied with geopolitical challenges, including the ongoing trade war and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This has provided ammunition for critics — including the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which is currently polling in the lead. The AfD has accused Merz, whose approval ratings have plummeted, of neglecting domestic economic needs, dubbing him the “foreign policy chancellor.”
In France, the government is considering retracting some measures enacted to address cost-of-living issues, a move that could be politically fraught given the populace’s acute focus on rising costs. Such decisions may embolden both right- and left-wing anti-establishment parties that are leveraging these concerns against the faltering political center.
David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data and a veteran pollster in Canada, has long monitored affordability issues and found them to resonate deeply with survey respondents.
“This is not merely a background worry; it’s a dominant reality that shapes Canadians’ perceptions of government efficacy, leadership, and policy priorities, alongside concerns about Trump, trade, and global instability,” he remarked regarding POLITICO’s November poll findings.
Affordability Will Dominate Upcoming Elections
Affordability issues are poised to play a central role in elections worldwide next year, with preliminary messaging already surfacing. In the U.S., Democratic candidates from New York to Georgia have largely framed their 2025 campaigns around lowering living costs, with both parties intending to spotlight this issue in the midterms.
“For now, affordability remains a cautionary tale for the Carney government,” Coletto explained. “However, the intensity of public sentiment, coupled with seasonal pressures and fragile household finances, means this issue is unlikely to fade into obscurity anytime soon.”
Starmer’s government, currently struggling in the polls and facing local elections in 2026, has recently shifted its focus to a more explicit affordability agenda.
The U.K. government is also exploring measures such as freezing train fares, reducing energy costs, and increasing the minimum wage in a bid to address the affordability crisis. However, a record-high taxation level confirmed in the recent budget could undermine its economic messaging.
In Germany, the affordability issue may gain traction as voters in five federal states prepare for elections to select new state parliaments next year. In Berlin, the far-left Left Party is looking to adopt strategies from New York’s affordability-driven campaign led by Zohran Mamdani as a template for its electoral efforts in September.
With local elections looming in France as well, and a presidential election on the horizon in 2027, these affordability challenges are sure to remain at the forefront of political discourse, particularly in major urban centers grappling with intense pricing pressures.
In Paris, the outgoing center-left administration has received praise for enhancing the city’s green initiatives and pedestrian access, yet more efforts are needed to address affordability, noted David Belliard, a member of the outgoing administration and the Green Party’s mayoral candidate.
“We’ve dedicated ample time to combating existential threats,” Belliard said, “but perhaps not enough to ensuring that people can meet their monthly expenses.”
Contributions to this report were made by POLITICO’s Matt Honeycombe-Foster from the United Kingdom, Victor Goury-Laffont from France, Nette Nöstlinger from Germany, and Nick Taylor-Vaisey from Canada.
