In the world of volcanic forecasting, predicting when a volcano will erupt is a challenging and often elusive task. Scientists have long sought to find patterns and signs that could help them anticipate when a volcano might blow its top, but the science is far from exact. One such case is the Axial volcano, a submerged seamount near Oregon in the Northern Pacific Ocean.
One year ago, scientists made a bold prediction that Axial volcano would erupt before the end of 2025. However, as 2026 approaches, the volcano remains quiet. In a new study presented by geophysicist William Chadwick of Oregon State University’s Hatfield Marine Science Center, a revised forecast suggests that an eruption at Axial may occur sometime in 2026.
Chadwick’s analysis combines seismic and seafloor inflation data around Axial seamount, offering a potential method for predicting future eruptions. This new analysis builds on previous research that identified a pattern of seafloor inflation and deflation, linked to underground magma movement, as a precursor to eruptions. This pattern was observed in 2015, leading to a successful prediction of an eruption that year.
Axial seamount serves as an ideal testing ground for eruption forecasting due to its frequent eruptions, extensive monitoring instrumentation, and remote location that poses no threat to human populations. The volcano’s activity has been closely monitored since 1997, with a network of underwater sensors and submarine fiber-optic cables delivering real-time data on ground movements and seafloor changes associated with magma activity.
While the initial prediction for an eruption in 2025 did not come to fruition, Chadwick’s ongoing research aims to refine eruption forecasting techniques and better understand the complex processes leading up to volcanic activity. By learning from past experiences and incorporating new data sources, scientists hope to improve their ability to predict when a volcano like Axial may erupt in the future.
As researchers continue to study and monitor Axial volcano, the quest for accurate volcanic forecasting methods remains an ongoing challenge. The dynamic nature of volcanic activity and the complex interactions between magma, tectonic plates, and geological processes make predicting eruptions a complex and ever-evolving field of study. Through continued research and analysis, scientists hope to unlock the secrets of volcanic behavior and improve their ability to forecast eruptions with greater accuracy. The year 2025 has come and gone, and scientists are still grappling with the enigmatic nature of predicting eruptions at the Axial Seamount off the coast of Oregon. The previous eruption in 2015 caught researchers by surprise, as the pattern of inflation and deflation that had been used as a basis for forecasting proved to be unreliable. Despite the increase in volcanic activity at Axial since 2015, there is still no clear threshold that triggers an eruption.
One potential new approach to eruption forecasting involves analyzing both seafloor deformation and seismic data simultaneously. Before the 2015 eruption, there was a significant increase in quake activity as the ground swelled upward. Scientists observed about 10,000 quakes per centimeter of seafloor inflation and a rapid inflation rate of 70 centimeters per year leading up to the eruption. While there was a brief period of intense quake activity in 2024, it did not result in an eruption, and the inflation rates were much lower.
Based on the data from 2015, researchers hypothesize that reaching 500 earthquakes a day could be a trigger for the next eruption. Current rates of inflation and seismicity suggest that this threshold could be reached sometime in 2026. Additionally, some scientists are exploring eruption forecasting based on physics, using computer models to predict moments of geological failure and anticipate volcanic activity.
In an effort to improve eruption prediction, researchers are incorporating real-time data from the Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI) into their models. The success of these efforts relies on the continued operation of the OOI, which has faced funding cuts under the Trump administration. Despite these challenges, the OOI has secured support to keep the array running through the summer of 2026.
Despite the ongoing research and advancements in eruption forecasting, public interest in the Axial Seamount’s volcanic activity has surged. Stories about the 2025 eruption prediction have circulated, with some exaggerating the potential danger posed by the volcano. As scientists continue their work to improve eruption forecasting, they are aware that more attention and concern may come their way if the new predictions prove to be accurate.
Overall, the quest to predict volcanic activity at the Axial Seamount remains a complex and evolving challenge. With new approaches and technologies being developed, researchers are hopeful that they can improve their ability to forecast eruptions and provide valuable insights into the geological processes at play beneath the ocean’s surface. The world is constantly evolving, and with it, so are our technology and innovations. One of the most exciting and rapidly developing areas is artificial intelligence (AI). AI is a branch of computer science that aims to create machines that can perform tasks that typically require human intelligence, such as speech recognition, decision-making, and visual perception.
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