Minnesota: The Elusive Prize for Republicans in the Trump Era
Minnesota has long been the elusive white whale for Republicans during the Trump presidency, and 2026 might just be the year they finally seize the opportunity — provided President Donald Trump and one of the most ardent purveyors of conspiracy theories about the 2020 election don’t derail their efforts.
Republican optimism is on the rise as they eye the possibility of unseating Democratic Governor Tim Walz, who is vying for a third consecutive term, a feat never accomplished in Minnesota’s gubernatorial history. However, Trump’s increasingly incendiary rhetoric against Walz and the state’s Somali community, coupled with MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell entering the gubernatorial race, could jeopardize the party’s chances of regaining influence in the state, according to some strategists.
“When the president storms in with a flamethrower and unleashes that kind of rhetoric, it suffocates any opportunity for the Republican candidate to present themselves thoughtfully and offer constructive suggestions,” remarked Michael Brodkorb, a former deputy chair of the Minnesota GOP who has since thrown his support behind the Democrats. “The president’s words effectively box them in.”
Since Trump narrowly lost Minnesota by less than two points in 2016, Republicans have clung to the belief that they can once again be competitive in this historically blue state. However, their attempts have been thwarted, as seen by Trump’s 7-point defeat in 2020 and a 4-point loss in 2024. Meanwhile, Walz won comfortably in 2018 and 2022.
Despite this, Republicans see a glimmer of hope in capitalizing on scrutiny surrounding Walz’s handling of state benefits and his prominent role as the Democratic vice presidential nominee, which has put him under the national spotlight for Republican attacks.
At the same time, Trump’s portrayal of some Somali immigrants involved in federal fraud cases as emblematic of the entire Somali community threatens to backfire, as insiders worry this divisive strategy may alienate potential voters.
Dustin Grage, a Minnesota Republican strategist, expressed concern about Lindell winning the nomination. “If that happens, we’d be cooked,” he said, humorously adding, “I might just pack my bags for Florida. A Lindell nomination would likely lead to a significant loss.”
Conversely, Trump’s close allies maintain that Minnesota remains a competitive battleground. House GOP Whip Tom Emmer, a prominent Minnesota Republican and Trump supporter, asserted that he has discussed the governor’s race with Trump and believes that any of the 13 Republicans vying for the party’s nomination could take down Walz. “Honestly, we should be able to beat Tim Walz with a dog,” Emmer quipped in an interview with POLITICO.
The White House has opted not to comment. However, at a recent rally in North Carolina, Trump praised Lindell and expressed his belief that Lindell “deserves to be the governor of Minnesota.”
Walz faces a challenging road to reelection, especially considering the historical precedent that no Minnesota governor has won three consecutive terms. His tenure has been complicated by investigations into fraudulent activities involving public funds, which have tainted his administration. In 2022, federal prosecutors charged numerous individuals for illegally pocketing $250 million from a federally funded child nutrition program managed by the Minnesota Department of Education during the pandemic.
The scale of these fraud allegations was so significant that the Justice Department labeled it the “largest Covid-19 fraud scheme in the United States,” prompting a state audit that criticized the Walz administration for not effectively managing its oversight responsibilities.
In September, federal prosecutors charged eight individuals for defrauding a Minnesota housing and health benefits program, while additional charges followed in December against six more individuals involved. One defendant from the earlier pandemic fraud case later pleaded guilty to attempting to embezzle $14 million from a program providing services to children with autism.
The probes into benefits fraud have now expanded to include billions of dollars in questionable billings across 14 public programs supported by Medicaid.
In response to a request for comment, Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party Chair Richard Carlbom stated that Walz is running for reelection with a focus on issues that matter to everyday people. “While the GOP clown-car primary is mired in infighting and loyalty tests for Donald Trump, Minnesota families are struggling with rising grocery prices, escalating healthcare costs, and massive tax breaks for billionaires,” Carlbom said. “Minnesotans can see the stark contrast — a governor dedicated to working families versus Republicans prioritizing loyalty to Trump and a Washington agenda that benefits the wealthy.”
In recent weeks, Trump has intensified his efforts to connect Walz to the misuse of government programs while employing inflammatory language directed at the governor and the Somali community. In a Thanksgiving social media post, he labeled Walz as “seriously retarded” and claimed Somali refugees were looking to “prey” on Minnesotans. At a rally in Pennsylvania, he continued to disparage the Somali community while discussing “the great big Minnesota scam with one of the dumbest governors ever in history.”
Emmer, who has had discussions with Trump regarding the governor’s race since July, believes the president recognizes Walz’s vulnerabilities. “I think Trump is aware that Tim Walz is at his weakest point in his political career,” Emmer commented.
Former Minnesota House Speaker Kurt Daudt, also a Republican, pointed to the fraud investigations as a significant liability for Walz in his bid for a third term. “If you can argue that after eight years in office, you haven’t resolved these issues or delivered on your promises, it becomes easier to advocate for new leadership,” Daudt said.
However, Brodkorb cautioned that Trump’s rhetoric regarding fraud could inadvertently reshape the narrative in a way that does not favor Walz’s Republican challenger. “Minnesotans are open to discussing immigration policy and how to address public program abuses, but the president’s blanket statements — like declaring that ‘everyone in the entire Somali community is garbage’ — complicate that conversation,” he noted.
Emmer defended Trump’s forthrightness, asserting that his approach has drawn necessary attention to state issues. “If he hadn’t been so blunt and direct, these matters might not have received the coverage they warrant,” Emmer argued.
The barrage of attacks directed at Walz, including those from Trump allies, focused inquiries from Cabinet officials, and an immigration crackdown in Minneapolis, underscores the governor’s growing national profile following his campaign as the running mate of former Vice President Kamala Harris in the last presidential election.
Walz’s emergence as a vocal critic of a potential second Trump administration has only intensified the feud between the two. Following a tragic incident involving a Democratic lawmaker, Trump stated he wouldn’t “waste time” engaging with the “whacked out” governor.
While Walz’s national visibility makes him a prime target for the GOP in the 2026 midterms, strategists caution that Trump’s heavy involvement in the race could backfire, given Minnesota’s political landscape. “Having Donald Trump actively campaigning for a particular Republican might not be advantageous; however, it could certainly elevate the focus on Tim Walz and his record,” Daudt explained.
Should Trump choose to endorse Lindell — who has been a key figure in promoting false claims about the 2020 election — Republicans are concerned that this could pave a clearer path for Walz’s reelection. “If Lindell is the candidate, the election will inevitably center around him, making it significantly easier for Walz to position the campaign as a referendum on Trump,” Daudt asserted.
Trump, who continues to assert that the 2020 election was rigged, highlighted Lindell’s efforts to overturn the election results at the North Carolina rally, expressing sympathy for Lindell’s struggles. “He was just a guy who said, ‘This election was so crooked, it was so rigged.’ He fought like hell,” Trump told his supporters.
Lindell’s campaign has yet to respond to requests for comment.
Some Republicans in Minnesota hope that the party will rally around a more moderate candidate capable of effectively addressing Walz’s weaknesses. However, Emmer emphasized that candidates must focus on securing the endorsement of the engaged party activists who play a crucial role at the party’s nominating convention next year. “To win this race, you must secure an endorsement,” Emmer stated. “Once you are the endorsed Republican candidate, you’ve effectively won the primary in August, positioning yourself for victory in the governor’s race.”
