Donald Trump has effectively handed Marco Rubio a pivotal opportunity regarding Venezuela—a move that could shape or shatter Rubio’s aspirations for the presidency in 2028.
Having swiftly become the administration’s foremost authority on Venezuelan matters, Rubio stood confidently behind Trump as the president boldly proclaimed, “we’re going to run the country.” He made the rounds on Sunday news programs, detailing the operation that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, and subsequently defended the actions in congressional briefings.
In an amusing twist, photoshopped memes of Rubio donning a sash in Venezuela’s national colors—a ceremonial adornment typically worn by the country’s presidents—have begun to circulate. Rubio himself has joined in on the lightheartedness, taking to X recently to humorously dispel “rumors” of his candidacy for the “currently vacant HC and GM positions with the Miami Dolphins.”
However, the stakes are significantly higher than a football gig; the American presidency could hinge on this Venezuelan affair.
“Venezuela could either elevate him to the presidency or bar him from ever attaining it,” said Mark McKinnon, a seasoned political advisor and former aide to President George W. Bush.
POLITICO revealed in November that Rubio had privately expressed support for JD Vance should he decide to run for president in 2028, a sentiment Rubio later confirmed to Vanity Fair.
“If JD Vance runs for president, he will be our nominee, and I’ll be one of the first supporters,” Rubio stated to Vanity Fair, a detail his aides highlighted when approached for comments on this story.
Nevertheless, skepticism abounds among political strategists. Rubio has a history of changing his mind about running for office.
“He’s quietly accumulating internal GOP support, based on what I hear from my contacts within the Republican Party,” remarked Buzz Jacobs, a senior advisor from Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign. “As it stands, could Marco Rubio enter the presidential race and be genuinely competitive, even against the vice president? The answer is undeniably yes.”
Rubio has dedicated much of his political career to criticizing Venezuela’s socialist government, closely tied to the regime in Cuba, which is significant given his parents’ background.
“Their experiences with the horrors of socialism and communism are embedded in his DNA,” noted Cesar Conda, Rubio’s former Senate chief of staff. “It shapes his worldview.”
Once a rival to Trump during the 2016 presidential race, having labeled Trump a “con artist,” Rubio has since aligned himself closely with Trump’s policies, adapting his rhetoric and positions in a manner that would make any chameleon proud. He now collaborates with America First advisors, pushing the Trump administration’s assertive foreign policy agenda.
Initially considered for the vice presidency in 2024, Rubio found himself instead at the State Department. Surprisingly, he has adopted many positions that once seemed off-limits for him, including halting refugee pathways and cutting funding for democracy and human rights initiatives—causes he once championed. These choices have helped him maintain Trump’s favor, even earning him the role of acting national security advisor.
While Trump has often shown a propensity to cultivate relationships with autocrats, he has consistently viewed Maduro unfavorably. Recently, Trump has made it clear that he perceives Venezuela as a potential reservoir of oil and other natural resources ripe for U.S. exploitation. Rubio has long characterized Maduro as a villain who has obstructed democracy.
In recent months, both Trump and Rubio have emphasized the necessity of addressing Maduro, accusing him of leading a drug cartel responsible for American fatalities. Their wish has been granted: Maduro is now in U.S. custody in New York.
However, the future of Venezuela remains uncertain. Many of Maduro’s associates continue to hold power, despite Trump’s assurances that they will comply with U.S. directives. Recently, Trump told the New York Times that the U.S. might be involved in running Venezuela for an extended period.
“I recognize that in our current society, everyone desires immediate results. They expect things to happen overnight,” Rubio remarked to reporters following a Senate briefing on Wednesday. “But that’s not how this will operate.”
Congress members were not informed of the Maduro operation beforehand, leading to significant frustration over what they perceive as a lack of transparency.
Senator Tim Kaine (D-Va.) stated that Rubio’s briefing “raised more questions than it answered.”
“It’s time to allow the public to understand what’s at stake,” urged Kaine, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Venezuela is unlikely to experience a quick resolution; the country spans roughly twice the area of California, with a devastated economy, diverse geography, and a population of 30 million rife with armed groups. The Maduro loyalists left behind harbor their own internal conflicts and some command military forces.
Despite Trump and Rubio’s admonitions to the remaining regime members to comply with U.S. demands, the potential for a collapse of the Venezuelan state looms large.
Moreover, the implications of this situation may extend beyond Venezuela. Rubio and Trump have signaled to other nations, including Colombia and Mexico, that they must align with U.S. interests.
“If I were in Havana and part of the government, I would be at least a little worried,” Rubio commented in a Saturday press conference shortly after the Venezuelan operation.
Potential chaos could alienate Rubio from critical GOP voting blocs, including anti-interventionist conservatives who remain skeptical of Rubio’s neoconservative inclinations, as well as Republican Latino voters in Florida, who are divided between those yearning for regime change in their ancestral lands and those frustrated by the ongoing instability in the region.
Additionally, there’s the broader public sentiment, with a significant portion of Americans preferring that the U.S. avoids repeating the costly invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan. According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, 72 percent of Americans express concern that the U.S. will become “too involved” in Venezuela.
As Rubio steps into the spotlight, Vance, a potential contender for the 2028 nomination, has largely steered clear of the Venezuelan situation. His spokesperson claimed that Vance’s absence from the improvised Mar-a-Lago command center during the operation was due to concerns that a “late-night motorcade movement could alert the Venezuelans.” Vance was reportedly “deeply integrated” into the planning and execution of the Venezuelan strikes and Maduro’s arrest.
Rubio must also contend with practical considerations: if he intends to run for president, he’ll need to secure funding, develop a campaign infrastructure, and undertake all necessary preparations as the GOP primary approaches.
This is particularly challenging while occupying the role of Secretary of State, a position that traditionally avoids the partisan fray of domestic politics. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton distanced herself from the Obama administration for over a year before officially launching her presidential campaign.
Rubio may need to exit the administration within the year to allocate sufficient time for campaign logistics, as the jockeying for the 2028 presidential race will commence early next year.
While foreign policy typically doesn’t dictate the outcome of most U.S. presidential elections, candidates from John McCain to Hubert Humphrey have suffered due to their party’s international interventions. Yet, the early phase of Trump’s second term has been notably marked by foreign policy, and any Republican vying for the presidency in 2028 will likely confront the repercussions of Trump’s bold global initiatives.
“The MAGA base is fiercely loyal to Trump and is keenly observant of any perceived disrespect towards him,” commented Alex Gray, a former National Security Council official from Trump’s initial term.
There are also factions within the GOP—particularly among the Cuban and Venezuelan diasporas—who staunchly support aggressive actions against those regimes, regardless of the consequences. GOP strategist Mike Madrid noted that many Latino Republicans are impressed by Trump’s reliance on Rubio, saying, “Whenever Trump needs an adult in the room, he seems to turn to Marco’s leadership.”
However, Madrid and other party strategists remain cautious about making predictions regarding the GOP primary at this juncture. After all, the unfolding situation in Venezuela is but one of multiple potential quagmires stemming from Trump’s foreign policy pursuits.
For Rubio, “what may seem like the president endorsing him as a competent successor could very well turn into him bearing the brunt of the unpopularity stemming from the president’s actions in the coming years,” Madrid cautioned. “The odds of that happening are higher than not.”
