Good news for Democrats in Pennsylvania, as they have surpassed their needed ballot firewall of 400,000 votes before election day. The latest numbers show that 1,742,908 votes have been cast in Pennsylvania, with Democrats leading the way with 973,363 votes returned, compared to 572,481 for Republicans and 197,064 for Independents.
Independents are expected to break for Harris by about a 70/30 margin, meaning that the Democratic firewall is expected to be closer to 500,000 votes. While Republicans have increased their vote by mail percentage and turnout, much of their vote is coming from smaller rural counties where there is less overall vote. This could potentially result in Republicans cannibalizing their election day vote in these areas.
The state does not seem to be breaking for Trump like he had hoped. More Democrats are returning to vote on election day as they traditionally did before COVID, and there is more Democratic vote outstanding potentially on election day than there is for Republicans. This puts Trump in a position where he would need to put up significant numbers on election day to secure a victory in Pennsylvania.
As we head into election day, Kamala Harris is in a much better position than Donald Trump in Pennsylvania. It remains to be seen what will happen on election day, but with the current numbers and trends, Trump would need a substantial turnout to overcome the Democratic advantage in the state.
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