The Man Who Would Be King of Saudi Arabia (with Karen Elliott House)

Karen Elliott House: Thank you for having me.

Karen Elliott House: Absolutely. Historically, crown princes in Saudi Arabia were merely placeholders, waiting for the king’s demise. However, MBS is far from being a mere figurehead. His father, King Salman, ascended the throne in January 2015 following King Abdullah’s death, which was unexpected given his position in the line of succession. MBS, who was deeply involved in his father’s administration as the Defense Minister’s assistant, wasted no time in instigating significant changes upon his father’s ascension.

Karen Elliott House: I’ve been visiting Saudi Arabia for nearly five decades. Historically, the Al Saud family established the kingdom in 1744 with the help of Muhammad Abdul Wahhab, the founder of Wahhabism. Interestingly, under the current King and Crown Prince, they’ve recently claimed that the first Saudi state was founded in 1727, a narrative shift that emphasizes their autonomy from Wahhabism. This rebranding seems to align with their efforts to reduce Wahhabi influence in Saudi society.

Since their inception, the Al Saud rulers have faced numerous violent challenges from within their own ranks. They lost power in 1824 due to internal strife and regained it only to be overthrown again in the 1880s by the Ottomans, who deemed them excessively rigid in their religious practices. It was MBS’s grandfather who ultimately reestablished control over Arabia after a protracted conflict, declaring the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 1932. This family has been at the helm ever since.

Karen Elliott House: To add a personal touch, Abdulaziz, the founder of the modern Saudi kingdom, fathered 44 sons with 22 wives, using marriage to tribal leaders he had overthrown as a means to forge alliances and solidify his rule.

Karen Elliott House: That would be Abdulaziz, the architect of the 1932 kingdom.

Karen Elliott House: Arabia has never been colonized in the same way as other Middle Eastern countries. While the British provided support to King Abdulaziz to consolidate his power, they ultimately had to contend with local dynamics, including removing King Hussein’s family from power in Mecca. This historical backdrop fosters a unique sense of pride among Saudis, as they do not see themselves as a product of colonialism like their neighbors.

Karen Elliott House: I’ve had the opportunity to interview him seven times in formal settings, along with several informal encounters at events. As a journalist, I seize every chance to engage with him. Many of these interviews lasted between two to three hours, totaling around 16 to 18 hours of conversation.

Karen Elliott House: Initially, when King Salman took the throne, MBS was merely his father’s Defense Chief of Staff. However, he quickly convened four ministers to reorganize his father’s government, demonstrating his drive and urgency. He was not yet crowned Crown Prince but evidently had his father’s backing. MBS was determined to streamline governance, eliminating bureaucratic councils and demanding immediate results from his ministers. He swiftly became Deputy Crown Prince.

In 2016, MBS unveiled his Vision 2030 Reform Agenda, aimed at decreasing Saudi Arabia’s reliance on oil and diversifying the economy. This included a radical shift in social policies, such as sidelining the religious police and allowing women to drive—changes that were met with significant public approval. The Ritz-Carlton incident was a pivotal moment in his campaign against corruption. MBS summoned numerous prominent figures to the hotel under the pretext of combating graft, revealing a starkly different approach to governance.

Karen Elliott House: Exactly. The Ritz-Carlton incident not only shocked the nation but also instilled a sense of trepidation among the elite. While many viewed these changes favorably, they also served as a stark reminder of the new power dynamics under MBS. The fear of repercussions for corruption became palpable, leading to a chilling effect on many who had previously operated with impunity.

Karen Elliott House: MBS aimed to engage the religious authorities in a dialogue about their roles, but he effectively curtailed their power by restricting the religious police’s ability to enforce public morality. While some clerics adapted to this new reality, others found themselves sidelined or imprisoned. This strategic maneuvering allowed MBS to consolidate power while simultaneously modernizing societal norms.

Karen Elliott House: I believe MBS genuinely views these reforms as beneficial for Saudi Arabia’s future. His Vision 2030 initiative aims to modernize the economy, and empowering women is central to that vision. By allowing women to drive and work, he’s addressing long-standing restrictions imposed by the religious authorities. MBS recognizes that to unleash economic potential, he must liberate the talents of half the population, which is a compelling argument for reform.

Karen Elliott House: My first trip to Saudi Arabia was in 1978, and while the country was conservative, it was not as strictly religious. I remember attending a mixed-gender party without the stringent dress codes that later became common. Over the years, especially after the events of 1979, the country embraced a more conservative stance, intensifying religious observance. Today, however, some women opt for more colorful abayas, reflecting a gradual shift in societal norms.

Karen Elliott House: The shift has been stark. Following the 1979 events, which triggered a wave of conservatism, women were increasingly required to cover themselves, leading to a cultural shift that reinforced traditional norms. Today, while some women still wear black abayas, there’s a noticeable variation in style and color, indicating a growing acceptance of individual expression.

Karen Elliott House: He was educated within the kingdom, attending Riyadh School and later King Saud University’s Law School. This educational background has equipped him with a nuanced understanding of Islamic law, which may embolden him to challenge traditional clerical authority.

Karen Elliott House: Saudis tend to be reserved, often accepting the ruler’s decisions without public dissent. However, younger generations, who form a significant portion of the population, welcome these changes as they aspire for a lifestyle akin to what they see internationally. While older generations may be more resistant, many young Saudis are excited about the potential for greater personal freedoms and economic opportunities.

Karen Elliott House: The government is grappling with “Saudization,” aiming to increase the number of Saudis in the workforce while simultaneously seeking skilled talent for a transitioning economy. This duality creates tension, as many young graduates struggle to find meaningful employment that matches their qualifications. There’s a concern that over the next two decades, discontent could grow among those who feel left behind.

Karen Elliott House: There have been some successes, particularly in tourism, with initiatives to develop attractions similar to those in neighboring countries. Projects like Riyadh Boulevard and Al-‘Ula aim to draw visitors and provide entertainment options for Saudis. However, major projects like Neom have faced setbacks due to practicality and financial constraints, leading to a reevaluation of goals.

Karen Elliott House: Yes, indeed. The kingdom’s economic model relies heavily on high oil prices, and with current rates hovering around $60 per barrel, there’s pressure to adjust expectations and spending. Global shifts in energy markets are complicating their plans.

Karen Elliott House: Indeed, the geopolitical landscape poses additional challenges for MBS. Tensions with Iran are an ever-present concern, and the Crown Prince has sought to stabilize the region. However, the recent unrest and uncertainty in Iran further complicate matters, making it crucial for him to navigate these waters carefully.

Karen Elliott House: Jamal Khashoggi was a well-known Saudi journalist whose death in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018 sent shockwaves through the international community. Despite MBS not being directly blamed, the CIA indicated that the operation likely had his approval. The murder starkly contradicted MBS’s reformist image, leading to significant backlash.

Karen Elliott House: It seems plausible that MBS underestimated the international backlash. Khashoggi was perceived as a threat due to his connections and views, and it’s possible that the operation was initially intended to detain him rather than to kill him. The brutal execution only intensified global condemnation and tarnished MBS’s reputation.

Karen Elliott House: I believe MBS sees the value in establishing relations with Israel, but the recent conflict complicates matters significantly. His public stance remains that normalization hinges on the establishment of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. However, the reality is that MBS must balance his ambitions with the prevailing sentiments within his country, where many young Saudis oppose any rapprochement with Israel.

Karen Elliott House: I expect that MBS will adopt a more cautious approach as he maneuvers through both domestic and international pressures. The health of King Salman also plays a critical role in his stability as a leader. With public sentiment against normalization and the volatile regional landscape, MBS is likely to tread carefully.

Karen Elliott House: MBS has the potential to be transformative if he remains receptive to diverse perspectives. However, the economic challenges ahead could hinder his ambitions. The next five years will be pivotal, as it will be essential for him to transition from grand announcements to tangible results. The question remains whether he can navigate these complexities effectively, earning both domestic and foreign trust.

Karen Elliott House: Thank you for having me; I appreciate the opportunity.