The SOTU moment that Republicans hope saves the midterms

Republicans are banking on President Donald Trump having thrown them a critical lifeline in their ongoing battle over immigration policy.

This pivotal moment unfolded during the president’s record-setting State of the Union address on Tuesday night. He called upon lawmakers to rise in agreement with a “fundamental principle.”

“If you agree with this statement, then stand up and show your support: The first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens,” Trump declared. This prompted a wave of Republicans to spring to their feet, while Democrats remained seated, their expressions effectively unreadable.

This stark visual—an overt display of division between the two parties—is a scene Republicans are eager to showcase across media platforms and leverage on the campaign trail. After enduring months of backlash due to Trump’s widely criticized mass deportation strategies, the National Republican Congressional Committee convened on Wednesday to strategize on how to utilize this particular moment in attack ads targeting vulnerable Democratic House members, as shared by a source familiar with the discussions who requested anonymity.

Already, some groups are making their moves: the conservative nonprofit American Sovereignty plans to air a 30-second ad on Thursday featuring this moment, complete with on-screen text alleging that Democrats support “illegal alien criminals.” This ad is part of a broader seven-figure television campaign aimed at critical battleground states such as North Carolina, Michigan, and Georgia.

“Throughout our nation’s history, Democrats and Republicans have engaged in good-faith disagreements regarding the best methods to protect our citizens,” commented David Shafer, a GOP strategist and former chair of the Georgia Republican Party. “However, the Democrats have now made it abundantly clear that protecting American citizens is no longer their primary priority.”

In the wake of the State of the Union address, several GOP candidates in high-profile races quickly amplified this moment on social media, issuing statements condemning Democrats for their seated response.

This instance is potentially critical for Republicans, who find themselves struggling on both the economy and immigration—two issues they once dominated. Recent polling from POLITICO and Public First indicates that nearly half of Americans consider Trump’s immigration tactics excessively aggressive, with 46 percent attributing high costs to the Trump administration.

While some Republicans left the speech feeling doubtful about whether Trump effectively conveyed a forward-looking economic agenda to address American concerns, others were excited about his efforts to reframe the GOP’s immigration stance.

Rather than focusing solely on his controversial mass deportation policies, Trump emphasized two elements that resonate more broadly: border security and the removal of violent offenders. This approach, combined with the dramatic moment contrasting Republicans and Democrats, provides GOP strategists with more options as they gear up for the midterms.

“That was incredibly helpful; it paints a different picture,” remarked Preya Samsundar, a Republican communications strategist involved in various races, including New Mexico’s gubernatorial election and the House special election in Georgia’s 14th district. “It establishes a narrative for why the majority of Americans—regardless of whether they identify as Republican, Democrat, or Independent—originally supported the President’s immigration policies.”

Rep. Buddy Carter of Georgia, running in a competitive GOP primary against incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Ossoff, was quick to criticize Democrats over immigration following the State of the Union. He stated, “Tonight, Democrats—Jon Ossoff included—refused to stand for the American people,” adding, “We witnessed a clear division: Republicans, guided by President Trump, are standing up for our country, while Democrats remain seated, refusing to acknowledge the truth: The state of our union is strong.”

On the flip side, Democratic operatives, such as pollster Brian Stryker, argue that immigration is no longer the “lead weight” it once was for their party in 2024. Recent special election victories, especially in Texas where Hispanic voters returned to the Democratic fold, suggest a shift in momentum on the issue.

“A Democrat with a moderate immigration policy can resonate well right now, whereas two years ago, the assumption was that all Democrats were in favor of open borders,” he noted.

If Republicans manage to regain an advantage on immigration, it could serve as a distraction from their perceived vulnerabilities concerning the economy—if only temporarily. They are wagering that the images of Democrats remaining seated will resonate long after the speech.

“I saw Stephen Miller’s tweet afterwards claiming it was the biggest moment in the history of Congress. He clearly doesn’t know what he’s talking about,” said Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) in response to the White House deputy chief of staff’s late-night social media posts. “To me, the whole thing is disgraceful. It was a stunt, and it was pathetic.”

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer quickly defended Democrats post-speech, asserting that they “agree” on the need to protect Americans and that the president is the one jeopardizing safety with his immigration policies—a reference to the tragic killings of Renée Good and Alex Pretti.

However, the damage may have already been done.

“It’s theatrics, but at the end of the day, it’s a head-shaking moment for Democrats not to stand up,” remarked Ben Voelkel, a Wisconsin-based Republican strategist.

Brakkton Booker, Elena Schneider, and Calen Razor contributed to this report.