On January 6, 2021, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton rallied a fervent crowd of President Donald Trump’s supporters, many on the brink of breaching the U.S. Capitol, declaring, “We will not quit fighting.” Fast forward five years, and Paxton’s fighting spirit positions him as a formidable challenger to a 24-year Senate incumbent.
It’s been a winding road for Paxton. As Texas’ chief legal officer, he transformed into a darling of the far-right, leveraging a barrage of lawsuits to champion their most pressing causes—from amplifying religious influence in educational institutions to attempting to nullify the 2020 election results. He has positioned himself as a staunch adversary to both the Obama and Biden administrations, filing over 100 lawsuits on issues ranging from immigration to environmental regulations. His office remains active in investigating alleged election irregularities, particularly in Democratic strongholds like Houston.
On Tuesday, the MAGA grassroots that have propelled him to prominence will reach a pivotal moment: Paxton is well-positioned to outpace John Cornyn in the GOP primary for his Senate seat, despite being weighed down by considerable political baggage and the onslaught of millions in attack ads.
This bare-knuckle primary is likely headed for a runoff, extending the party’s internal strife over generational shifts.
For Texas’ far-right, Paxton’s trajectory illustrates the burgeoning influence of their movement, which has compelled Republican leaders to adopt increasingly conservative stances. For Cornyn, this may signal the twilight of his lengthy Senate career and the diminishing presence of establishment Republicans within the party.
“Ken Paxton embodies more than just a MAGA attorney general; he represents the very essence of the grassroots MAGA movement,” stated Steve Bannon, former senior adviser to Trump, who has been broadcasting from a rented ranch in North Texas in the days leading up to the election. “His resilience stems from the knowledge that he has fought valiantly for years. The people trust him because they know his heart, and he’s a fighter.”
Cornyn Faces Serious Challenges
The MAGA movement has proven ruthless in safeguarding its own while simultaneously targeting Republican adversaries. Paxton has withstood an impeachment from the GOP-led state House, a federal securities fraud investigation, and a plethora of ethics complaints. Just three months into his Senate campaign, Paxton’s wife filed for divorce, alleging infidelity. His opponents—including Cornyn, who has deemed Paxton too unethical for public office—have relentlessly highlighted his scandals.
And yet, he remains the frontrunner.
Paxton has consistently led in polls, even before his campaign kick-off, despite concerted efforts from Washington Republicans to bolster Cornyn’s standing.
“Ideally, we want a saint as our elected leader, and we hope and pray for that day,” remarked Bo French, former chair of the Tarrant County Republican Party and current candidate for the Texas Railroad Commission. “But until that day comes, we need fighters for our cause. Among Republican primary voters in Texas, Paxton is seen as a warrior.”
Cornyn is acutely aware of the strong currents working against him, acknowledging that the demographics of primary voters differ sharply from his usual base. Many Texas Republicans remain dissatisfied with the senator for his support of a bipartisan gun control package following the tragic Uvalde school shooting that claimed the lives of 19 children and two teachers. Cornyn was notably booed onstage at the Texas GOP convention in 2022.
“If only the most radical individuals turn out for the primary… that will pose a significant challenge,” Cornyn remarked in a CBS interview on Saturday. His primary rival, Rep. Wesley Hunt, is also courting the far-right, asserting on X that Cornyn’s remarks reveal he has “lost touch with the people you’re supposed to represent” and that “your disdain for Texas voters is precisely why your career is ending.”
Trump has yet to endorse anyone in this race, complicating any MAGA support Cornyn might hope to secure—or that could propel Paxton over the edge. At a recent event in Corpus Christi, Trump indicated he had “pretty much” decided whom to support but withheld the name.
Democrats see Paxton’s myriad controversies as a potential vulnerability in the general election, a sentiment echoed by many national Republicans, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who is eager to keep Cornyn within the GOP fold.
Kendall Scudder, chair of the Texas Democratic Party, argued that Paxton threatens Republicans at every level. “Every top-tier Republican in the state is deeply unpopular, and they will be led by Ken Paxton,” he remarked. “That sets the stage for intriguing contests in various races.”
The MAGA vs. Establishment Battle: Years in the Making
Paxton has endured years of legal and personal scrutiny yet has continued to emerge victorious.
Texas Republicans have repeatedly re-elected both Cornyn to the Senate and Paxton as attorney general, effectively supporting the leaders of both factions within the party. However, recent elections have illustrated the increasing prominence of the MAGA faction.
Paxton’s electoral successes have been bolstered by substantial contributions from Texas megadonors like Tim Dunn and the Wilks brothers, as well as his staunchly conservative base. In 2022, he faced a challenge from Land Commissioner George P. Bush—the grandson of former Presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush.
Bush attempted to persuade conservative voters with promises to restore integrity to the attorney general’s office amidst Paxton’s ongoing securities fraud investigations and bribery allegations. Paxton’s allies contend that Cornyn is employing a similar strategy.
Voters appeared to favor Paxton’s combative style, as evidenced by his decisive two-to-one victory over Bush in that year’s runoff, a clear indication that the MAGA wing was gaining ground at the expense of the traditional establishment.
In 2022, Paxton agreed to pay restitution and undertake community service to resolve the securities fraud case stemming from allegations of misleading investors in a tech startup. The Justice Department opted not to prosecute Paxton for the remaining bribery charges in the waning days of the Biden administration, ultimately leading to his impeachment in the GOP-dominated Texas House, followed by a Senate acquittal.
As scrutiny mounted within the Texas Republican Party, Paxton portrayed himself as a martyr—victimized by baseless probes threatening not only his career but also the integrity of the MAGA base. His acquittal post-impeachment further solidified his likeness to Trump in the eyes of far-right supporters.
This relentless onslaught invigorated his base. State Rep. Gary Gates, a Republican, experienced the backlash firsthand when he publicly reversed his vote to impeach Paxton after facing pressure from constituents. “A certain faction of his supporters was quite upset,” Gates recounted, representing a suburban district outside of Houston. “You have to navigate that political reality.”
Paxton often boasts of being among the few Republicans to attend Trump’s campaign launch at Mar-A-Lago in 2022, a time when many within the party had distanced themselves following the violent insurrection at the Capitol.
“When you attempt to undermine someone like him, who has consistently fought for our values, and the entire system is weaponized against him, the people remain loyal,” stated Aaron Reitz, a former deputy in Paxton’s office who is now campaigning to succeed him. “I hope the establishment wing of the GOP learns a similar lesson from their attempts to take down Trump: they do not control this party. The grassroots, the people, are in charge, and they must reconsider their spending priorities.”
The Path to Paxton’s Current Position
Paxton’s robust support base is partly rooted in his lawsuits against frequent targets of the right—high-profile cases that made local headlines from Beaumont to Amarillo. Over his decade as Texas’ chief legal officer, Paxton has overseen the Lone Star State’s evolution into a hotbed for ultra-conservative initiatives, from defending abortion restrictions to warning against the alleged imposition of Islamic law in Texas.
At a recent campaign gathering in the Houston suburbs, amidst the backdrop of a “safari ranch” populated with peacocks, zebras, and goats, Paxton recounted his courtroom victories to a group of around 75 supporters. He reminisced about the inception of his career, recalling his decision to run for attorney general during his initial term in the state legislature, driven by the belief that former President Barack Obama posed “an epic threat” by relying heavily on executive orders to bypass Congress.
In his inaugural AG race, Paxton capitalized on the Tea Party insurgency to defeat an establishment Republican endorsed by former President George W. Bush. He humorously informed his audience that he sued Obama 27 times within the 22 months they overlapped in office.
After Obama’s departure and Trump’s ascension, Paxton redirected his focus from the White House to Silicon Valley, suing Google (“for their questionable practices”), Facebook (“who generously contributed to us”), Twitter (“before Elon took over”), and Pfizer (“for misleading about the vaccine”).
Paxton then became fixated on probing voter fraud allegations, establishing himself as a key player in Trump’s unsuccessful attempts to overturn the 2020 election results. He even petitioned the Supreme Court to invalidate election results in Pennsylvania and other battleground states—only to have the justices dismiss his case, ruling that Texas lacked standing.
When Biden was inaugurated, Paxton resumed his assault on the federal government. Following Trump’s re-election in 2024, Paxton expressed feeling adrift, stating, “I felt like I had completed my missions. Twelve years felt sufficient.”
“I surveyed the political landscape,” Paxton shared with the crowd, “and I spotted a figure: John Cornyn.”
Adam Wren contributed reporting.
