Starship ready for launch
Getty Images
The significance of SpaceX’s Starship, innovations in origami design, and Sam Altman’s longevity startup’s new funding—these topics and more are covered in this week’s edition of The Prototype. To subscribe, sign up here.
SpaceX has finally filed for its much-anticipated IPO on Wednesday, sparking discussions on various futuristic initiatives, including lunar mass drivers, orbital data centers, and Mars colonization. Expect more insights on these topics in the coming weeks.
While the speculative elements of SpaceX’s IPO capture the public’s imagination, the real focal point is Starship, currently poised for launch in Texas. Initially, this newsletter was to center on its scheduled test flight earlier this week. However, due to delays, the launch is now expected to occur a few hours after this newsletter is sent out.
The Starship is SpaceX’s advanced heavy-lift rocket, intended to surpass the Saturn V rocket used in the Apollo missions to the Moon, with the added benefit of being fully reusable. According to SpaceX’s public filing, the company has invested over $15 billion into this project.
Beyond the financial commitment, Starship is pivotal to SpaceX’s vision of being valued at trillions of dollars, a figure that far exceeds its current revenue of $18 billion (with losses nearing $5 billion). The next generation of Starlink satellites are too large for current rockets and require Starship for deployment. Similarly, proposed orbital data centers and NASA’s lunar missions depend on Starship.
Despite these plans, SpaceX faces significant delays and is years behind schedule. Several test flights have resulted in “rapid unscheduled disassembly”—a euphemism for explosions—but recent tests have shown improvement.
As SpaceX prepares for its stock market debut, the upcoming Starship test is sure to attract significant attention. The company’s prospectus clearly states that any setbacks in Starship’s development could hinder its growth strategy, which includes deploying advanced satellites, achieving global satellite-to-mobile connectivity, and orbital AI computing.
Discovery of the Week: Curved Origami Structures
Many activities, from camping to space exploration, require carrying materials for shelter or other uses, which can be cumbersome. Flexible and lightweight materials are easier to transport, but they often lack strength, and origami-based portable structures tend to be rough rather than smooth.
Researchers at McGill University may have discovered a promising solution. Their recent paper outlines a new material that uses a combination of cable and origami folding techniques to transform flat materials into curved structures. The cables can be adjusted to switch the surface from flexible to rigid and back.
Co-author Damiano Pasini stated in a press release that “Our approach opens new avenues for the design of deployable and adaptive load-bearing curved structures.” Potential applications include emergency shelters, space structures, and medical implants.
Sam Altman-Backed Retro Biosciences Is Expanding Its Longevity Research
Joe Betts-LaCroix
Retro Biosciences
Retro Biosciences, an AI-driven longevity startup supported by Sam Altman, has received additional funding at a valuation of $1.8 billion. The total amount raised was not disclosed, but 4P Capital led the investment.
The company’s mission is to extend healthy human lifespan by a decade. It has one drug in clinical trials aimed at enhancing autophagy, a biological process that slows down with age and involves the body’s cleanup of damaged cells. This drug development progressed from concept to human trials in just 15 months.
Retro Biosciences is also preparing two other treatments for human trials: a cellular therapy to replace aging brain cells called microglia to address Alzheimer’s disease, slated for trials in 2026, and a therapy to replace old or missing blood stem cells in collaboration with the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute, set for clinical testing in 2027.
CEO Joe Betts-LaCroix confirmed that all these programs are fully funded. The new capital will be used for “additional discovery,” as the company explores which aging-related challenges to tackle next. “There’s a bunch of things we want to work on,” he said.
The Hot Take: Biological AI Needs Data
Each week, I gather investors’ perspectives on technological trends within their sectors. This week, the insights are from Jory Bell, a general partner at Playground Global. Bell concentrates on deep biotechnology startups such as Ultima and Strand Therapeutics. Recently, the firm announced a new $475 million fund for investment in deep tech startups.
Jory Bell
Playground Capital
What tech is being overhyped right now?
Generative AI for binder design—a process used to create synthetic drugs—is currently overhyped. While necessary, it falls short of driving significant progress. To truly impact medicine development, AI must be integrated much deeper into the process to avoid hitting Amdahl’s Law and reverting to traditional methods.
What should more people be talking about today?
Despite receiving some attention, the role of artificial intelligence in unraveling biology’s complexities deserves more focus. The scale and quality of data required for training AI in this field are often underestimated. While changes are underway, they are not happening fast enough. Notably, Alphafold—a breakthrough AI—was trained on a relatively small protein database, highlighting the need for data on a much larger scale. Companies like Manifold face challenges in educating labs about the data inputs necessary for success, even as the potential to cure diseases becomes increasingly feasible.
What are we all going to be talking about in five years?
In the next five years, true bio-AI companies are expected to emerge, becoming the Genentechs of this century.
On My Radar
Space Developments: NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman anticipates that China will conduct a crewed mission around the Moon next year, akin to Artemis II. The agency also announced a major reorganization to streamline its operations.
AI Advancements in Science: Google has introduced new AI tools for scientists through its Gemini suite. Meanwhile, OpenAI claims its model has disproved a geometry conjecture by Paul Erdős.
AI Challenges: The ArXiv preprint server plans to ban authors using AI-generated fake citations. Legal professionals face similar scrutiny for employing AI-generated citations. Waymo has halted freeway services for its self-driving cars due to safety concerns, like entering construction zones and flooded roads.
Quantum Computing Support: The federal government is increasing its investment in quantum computing, offering $2 billion in research grants to gain equity stakes in companies.
What’s Entertaining Me This Week
Previously, I praised the Netflix series Department Q. This week, I’m reading The Keeper of Lost Causes by Jussi Adler-Olsen, the first novel in the series that inspired the show. The library wait was long, but the book offers an engaging comparison to the series, with some setting and case detail changes. The TV adaptation stays true overall, and the book is compelling in its own right.
