For Iowa Democrats, the end of a decade-long drought in political victories may be on the horizon.
The past 18 months have been turbulent for Iowa’s economy, largely reliant on agriculture, which has been disrupted by tariffs. Democrats point to Medicaid cuts from the previous year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act as devastating to rural health facilities, leading to several clinic closures. The war with Iran has further driven up costs for crucial farming supplies like fertilizer and diesel.
This situation presents an opportunity that Democrats believe could sway voters in their favor during the midterms, potentially leading to significant statewide wins for the first time since the Obama administration. They are optimistic that the candidates nominated during Tuesday’s primaries will bolster support for Democrats in down-ballot races.
“When visiting rural areas, the word ‘betrayal’ is commonly heard,” shared Josh Turek, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, in a POLITICO interview following his primary victory. “We’re seeing record farm foreclosures and rising farm suicide rates. Trump signs and flags are disappearing because people feel betrayed.”
Some Republicans are also raising concerns.
“If voters lack confidence in Republican candidates and officials regarding the economy’s future, they won’t vote for them in November,” noted Drew Klein, an Iowa regional vice president for Americans for Prosperity. “This is what will determine the upcoming election.”
Democrats view economic concerns as a potential advantage across rural America. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently conducted polling that indicates economic dissatisfaction among rural voters, as detailed in a memo shared first with POLITICO.
For the first time since 1968, both the Senate and governor’s seats are available in Iowa simultaneously. Democrats believe their slate of nominees is well-suited to seize this opportunity.
“We’re enthusiastic about this, and it’s the first time I’ve felt this way in a long while,” stated Patty Judge, a former Iowa agriculture secretary and the last Democratic lieutenant governor before losing in 2010.
Democrats in Iowa and the DCCC are also heavily targeting three of the state’s four House seats — positions they claimed during the 2018 wave election.
Turek, a Paralympic gold medalist, secured an easy victory in the Senate primary, earning support from national Democrats who endorsed him. He is set to run statewide with Rob Sand, a promising figure in the party who faced no opposition in the gubernatorial primary.
However, achieving victory in Iowa remains challenging for Democrats, considering their party’s negative reputation in many rural areas. It’s been years since a Democrat has been elected as governor (2006), to the U.S. Senate (2008), or to the U.S. House (2020), with the state last voting Democratic in a presidential election in 2012.
Republicans acknowledge the unfavorable environment but contend that Democrats will not prevail due to the state’s shift to the right during the Trump era.
“It’s a steep challenge for Democrats,” remarked David Kochel, a seasoned Republican strategist with extensive experience in Iowa. “Though many factors are in their favor, this is a state where Trump won by 13 points.”
“Democrats abandoned Iowa years ago, and their candidates still haven’t learned,” said Emily Tuttle, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “Iowans seek representatives who advocate for them, not those who lecture or condescend. This is why Republicans are poised for victory in Iowa this November.”
Democratic optimism centers on their top candidates: Sand will challenge Republican Zach Lahn, who won his primary with less than 40 percent of the vote against Trump-endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa).
Sand, an enthusiastic hunter and the only Democrat elected statewide, has garnered respect in conservative Iowa for his independent and fiscally moderate approach. “People know and trust him,” said Emma O’Brien, Sand’s deputy campaign director. “He has challenged the Democratic Party when he disagrees and acknowledged the other party when they do what is right.”
Democrats are counting on Iowans seeking change after a decade under Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds. According to Morning Consult data, she has been the least popular governor in the country for two years, with 49 percent of Iowans disapproving of her performance as of February 2026.
“She has controlled the legislature throughout, yet people’s lives are not improving,” said Sue Dvorsky, a former Iowa Democratic Party chair. “Our healthcare, water quality, and schools are deteriorating. Every measure of a community’s health is declining.”
Reynolds’ spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.
In the Senate race, Turek is set to compete against GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson, with early polls indicating a tight contest. Democrats are targeting seats held by Republican Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the 1st District and Zach Nunn in the 3rd District, and they believe Hinson’s open seat in the 2nd District could also be competitive.
“Rather than advocating for Iowans, [Republicans] prioritize themselves, special interests, and party leaders,” said Katie Smith, a DCCC spokesperson. “After years of broken promises and failures, Iowa families are desperate for change and ready to reject these swamp creatures.”
Democrats claim that strong candidates at the top of the ballot will boost state legislature and local races.
“This feels different,” said Sarah Trone Garriott, the Democratic challenger to Nunn, elected to the state Senate in 2022 and 2024, speaking to POLITICO on Tuesday before her primary win. “I was one of the few Democrats to win in those years, which was lonely. This feels promising.”
Iowa Democrats have recently experienced glimpses of hope. In 2025, they won four out of six special elections for the state legislature, breaking the Republican supermajority in the state Senate.
Democrats link Medicaid changes from the previous year’s reconciliation bill to rural health clinic closures. In Iowa’s 1st District, a medical center ceased its labor and delivery services due to government funding challenges, while the 3rd District saw clinics shut down specifically over “expected Medicaid cuts.”
Farmers, traditionally leaning Republican, largely supported Trump. “[Trump] is not favorable for farmers, but they’ve supported him,” noted Tom Miller, a Democrat and Iowa’s attorney general for 40 years.
However, Iowa’s farmers have suffered under Trump’s tariffs and trade conflicts, compounded by rising fuel and fertilizer costs.
Last autumn, some farmers informed former state Rep. Christina Bohannan — the Democratic nominee in the 1st District facing Miller-Meeks for the third time — that they delayed purchasing fertilizer due to tariff-induced high costs. “Then the war with Iran caused fertilizer prices to spike even more,” Bohannan explained. “Our farmers are struggling significantly.”
Aaron Heley Lehman, president of the Iowa Farmers Union and a fifth-generation farmer, cautioned against assuming rural voters’ allegiance to any party. “People are experiencing a lot of pain without seeing action matching promises,” Lehman stated. “The extent of hardship among Iowa farmers is considerable.”
