Highlights
This article is also available as a YouTube podcast.
With decades of experience in the justice system, including six years in law enforcement and multiple university degrees, I have found that there are few universally agreed-upon reasons or precise explanations for why crime happens.
When reporters seek explanations for crimes, such as domestic violence and murder cases, or inquire about current crime rates, the answers are often complex and multifaceted.
Understanding the data is one thing, but providing straightforward answers is another.
It is crucial to recognize that crime does not lend itself to simple explanations.
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Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention and Statistics for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of Criminology and Public Affairs at the University of Maryland, University College. Former police officer. Retired federal senior spokesperson.
Advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Produced successful state anti-crime media campaigns.
With 35 years of experience directing award-winning public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies, I have been interviewed thousands of times by national news outlets, focusing on crime statistics and research. I created the first state and federal podcasting series and developed an innovative style of proactive public relations for the government.
Certificate of Advanced Study from The Johns Hopkins University.
Author of “Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization,” available on Amazon and other bookstores.
Crime in America.Net – “Trusted Crime Data, Made Clear.”
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A comprehensive overview of crime in recent years is available at “Violent and Property Crime Rates In The U.S.”
Note
This article uses the term reported crimes. Research from the USDOJ indicates that most crimes are not reported to law enforcement.
Opinion
This article discusses common questions from journalists, policymakers, and the public, highlighting the complexities in answering them. Understanding data differs from providing clear, precise answers.
Economists often regard their field as the leading social science. However, it is frequently criticized as “the dismal science” due to its complex explanations.
Criminology may well take over this title from economics. The multitude of competing theories and solutions for crime can be overwhelming.
No Easy Answers
When asked to explain crimes (e.g., domestic violence and murder cases), I recognize the absence of simple answers. Knowing every detail of a criminal’s life is necessary but not always feasible.
Having access to hundreds of criminals’ psychological, social, and medical histories, I still cannot offer definitive reasons for their actions. I’ve interviewed numerous offenders.
While I can partially grasp why they commit crimes, the reasons might stem from factors not recorded in their files. It could be something as simple as an unexpected opportunity.
I spoke to an inmate who justified his assault on a woman by saying, “if she was stupid enough to come on my street and ask for directions, she deserved to get what she got.”
Although I might know about his absent father, maternal abuse, and mental health and substance issues, how does that lead to a sexual assault on someone seeking directions?
Most criminals are opportunists, committing crimes based on unexpected chances rather than meticulous planning.
Reporters also ask about “teen takeovers.” For decades, young people have been taking over parks, malls, and other public spaces. Boredom, socializing, and showing strength are some possible reasons, though some gatherings may have criminal undertones.
Explaining crime is challenging as experts offer numerous theories, understandings, and advocacies. Beyond factors like gender (males commit most crimes), age (crime is common among the young), and socioeconomic status (low-income areas have higher crime rates), there is little consensus on causes and solutions.
Do GLP Drugs, Overdose Deaths And Wildfires Explain Crime?
Below are some examples of emerging crime understandings.
There are countless crime theories. Here are recent examples, showing the various possibilities writers consider when addressing new trends.
“GLP-1 Drugs Reduce Crime-Linked Behavior“
Recently, reported crimes have decreased. Why is that?
A new hypothesis suggests that GLP-1 drugs significantly reduce drug and alcohol use and impulsive behaviors, which are strongly linked to criminality.
A national survey published in the journal Criminology found that current users of GLP-1 medications were significantly less likely to escalate impulsive feelings or alcohol use into violent crime compared to former users.
Do we have a chemical solution to crime? Will the widespread use of GLP drugs lower crime rates? There are countless biological theories of crime.
Wildfires: Studies show that wildfire smoke significantly raises crime rates, particularly violent and drug-related ones. Wildfire smoke has been linked to a 0.49% increase in overall crime, 0.88% rise in violent offenses, and 1.35% uptick in drug-related crimes. Could improved firefighting reduce crime?
Overdose Deaths: Another explanation for fewer reported crimes is the exceptionally high overdose mortality among chronic substance users, nearing two million deaths, which may have impacted crime rates. It is reasonable to question whether overdose-related deaths removed enough high-rate offenders to affect local crime rates. However, this possibility has received little empirical study.
Given the strong connection between drug and alcohol use and criminal behavior, and the fact that a small number of criminals are responsible for most offenses, overdose deaths “may” have contributed to lower reported crime.
Older Explanations
Other explanations include an aging population (older individuals commit fewer crimes), a decline in marriage (studies show marriage reduces criminal activity), extensive histories of child abuse and neglect among offenders, poor decision-making skills (likely due to child abuse and neglect), proactive police strategies, incarceration rates (a preferred strategy in multiple nations), cultural norms that tolerate or glorify violence, and the declining use of alcohol all contribute to crime and disorder.
The question is the extent of influence. The challenge is determining which factors have the most significant impact and which solutions society is willing to embrace.
Many advocate for addressing crime’s root causes, but there is no consensus on which causes apply. Poverty is often mentioned, but no society has successfully eradicated it.
Crime Statistics
Not only is there no straightforward explanation for crime and widely accepted solutions, but there is also disagreement about whether crime rates have increased or decreased.
The FBI reports a decrease in violent and property crimes beginning in 2023 (3 percent) and 2024 (4.5 percent). The latest data from the FBI’s website indicates a continued decline.
From The Hill: “Nobody believes Patel crime statistics.” Bannon, a former adviser to President Trump, said “nobody believes” crime statistics from the FBI and its director, Kash Patel.
According to the USDOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics, the 50-year-old National Crime Victimization Survey, considered the premier method for counting crimes in America, reported a 44 percent increase in violent crime rates in 2022. Rates remained almost unchanged for 2023 and the most recent full report for 2024.
You can interpret USDOJ data to argue any case about crime. Different sources permit varying interpretations.
Conclusions
Reporters, most of your questions about crime lack clear answers.
Why did someone with mental health issues and a history of drug use, angry at the world, kill his wife and her children? The answer requires an in-depth examination of his background, but even then, it may remain elusive. Was it due to childhood abuse or an argument that escalated into rage?
Regarding crime policies, advocates claim they can prove their approaches work, but these are often opinions influenced by political biases. They don’t truly know because no one does.
Currently, the only strategy supported by over 1,000 studies from the National Academies of Sciences indicating success is proactive policing. Among criminal justice interventions, proactive policing has one of the strongest research literatures.
However, there are advocates with impressive credentials who want proactive policing significantly reduced or ended. They seek fewer prisons, no monetary bail for everyone, and a more compassionate justice system.
Politicians will claim their strategies are effective because reported crime is down in their city. Yet, reported crime is down in 80 percent of American cities according to recent data.
For those seeking answers to crime, I recommend including individuals with extensive real-world experience in the justice system. Relying solely on left-leaning sources (which produce 80 percent of crime policy content) will result in politically biased answers from people with excellent academic backgrounds but little to no real-world justice system experience.
Few crime-related organizations are nonpartisan. Almost every organization studying crime has its own philosophical assumptions and policy preferences, even when striving for objectivity.
It is up to reporters, policymakers, and the rest of us to view public pronouncements about crime and justice with skepticism. There are few easy answers or explanations. Nonpartisan sources are exceedingly rare. Mayors will assert that their strategies work without independent, methodologically sound research or replication in other locations.
It’s time for reporters and others to understand that there are no easy answers when it comes to crime.
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Most Dangerous Cities/States/Countries at Most Dangerous Cities.
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National Offender Recidivism Rates at Offender Recidivism.
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