TAMPA, Florida — Florida Republicans are set to chart a new course as they prepare for the upcoming primaries on Tuesday, following Governor Ron DeSantis’ departure from office. The state, once a pivotal swing region, now firmly aligns with the GOP.
The path to the primaries has not been entirely smooth for the party, which has held sway over state governance since the late 1990s. DeSantis has refrained from endorsing any successor, including his chosen lieutenant governor. Leading gubernatorial candidate Rep. Byron Donalds has chosen not to debate his Republican opponents, while President Donald Trump has distributed endorsements selectively, bypassing several crucial congressional contests.
During the campaign, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, a Republican gubernatorial contender, unsuccessfully filed a lawsuit to remove James Fishback, an investor known for his provocative actions, from the ballot. Donalds’ adversaries have focused on his past criminal record from his college days and his stock trading activities during his time in Congress. Meanwhile, negative advertising has flooded several open races, with GOP candidates accusing their opponents of ties to China and Democrats.
Tuesday’s election day will conclude a fractious period for a party renowned for disseminating conservative values and strategies nationwide. As the primaries approach, Donalds and other Republicans are eager to leave internal disputes behind, pivoting their campaign focus toward anticipated November adversaries.
“The internal fighting isn’t as much fun,” stated Evan Power, Chair of the Republican Party of Florida, who is also campaigning for a congressional seat in North Florida. Speaking at a Donalds event in Crawfordville, he remarked, “Tuesday’s the primary night, and we get to stop fighting Republicans and we get to start fighting Democrats again.”
Yet, there are concerns about the future. This election marks over a decade since neither DeSantis nor Trump is featured on the ballot. Voter turnout might be lower than usual, with one GOP consultant, speaking anonymously, predicting it could fall to below 30 percent, a decrease from previous cycles.
Donalds leads the race for governor, bolstered by an early Trump endorsement and substantial fundraising. However, his relationship with DeSantis has not always been amicable, and he has faced criticism from rivals like Fishback, who have used racially charged rhetoric against him. If Fishback secures second place, it could cast doubts on party cohesion.
When asked by POLITICO about his concerns over polls showing Fishback in second place, Donalds replied at a rally, “To quote Charles Barkley, ‘When you’re in second place, you’re just a first loser.’”
Donalds referenced DeSantis’ own primary battle in 2018, asserting that Republicans are seasoned in navigating contentious primaries, which occur frequently within the party. He added, “Once the primaries conclude, we’ll refocus,” emphasizing a commitment to preserving Florida’s conservative identity.
Donalds has been pursuing the governorship for over a year, launching his campaign soon after Trump’s endorsement and maintaining a rigorous schedule. Initially, many Republicans, including Florida first lady Casey DeSantis, were potential contenders, but only a few high-profile candidates, including Fishback, posed significant competition.
In a conversation with POLITICO, Fishback criticized Donalds and other gubernatorial hopefuls such as Paul Renner and Collins for failing to address Florida’s affordability crisis while in office. He asserted, “I’m the outsider in this race.”
When questioned about supporting Donalds post-primary, Fishback was confident in his victory, citing previous polling inaccuracies in other states’ races. He stated, “I will unite the Republican Party as the nominee and never support a Democrat.”
Donalds’ competitors, Collins and Renner, have aimed to position themselves as the natural successors of DeSantis’ legacy, yet neither secured his endorsement.
Collins highlighted his appointment as lieutenant governor by DeSantis and the governor’s initial praise of him as the “Chuck Norris of Florida politics” to emphasize his connection. However, tensions arose between DeSantis’ team and Collins, leading to public disputes.
Initially, DeSantis was critical of Renner’s gubernatorial bid, labeling it “ill-advised,” despite Renner’s legislative achievements in pushing conservative policies. Recently, DeSantis has expressed a more favorable view, suggesting Renner would make a “good” governor, attributing his earlier hesitance to strategic considerations.
Wilton Simpson, Florida Agriculture Commissioner, noted that the ongoing infighting among Republicans might deter voter participation. “It’s sad,” he remarked after attending a Donalds rally in Plant City, “there’s so much turmoil in politics today, and it’s unfortunate we don’t see higher turnout.”
On Tuesday, Florida Republicans could significantly influence whether the GOP retains control of the House in November. DeSantis’ efforts to modify the state’s congressional map could potentially shift up to four seats. However, GOP Rep. Cory Mills, facing a House Ethics Committee investigation, might become a Democratic target if he prevails over three Republican challengers in Florida’s 7th District.
The outcome of several open congressional seats remains uncertain. The contest to succeed Donalds in Southwest Florida has been dubbed the “carpetbagger primary” due to candidates relocating from other states, with two having previously served in Congress representing different areas.
Trump has limited his influence in this year’s primaries to endorsing incumbents. He has, however, supported Catalina Lauf for Donalds’ current seat and Sydney Gruters for the seat vacated by Rep. Vern Buchanan.
Kimberly Leonard reported from Miami.
