Securing a first-place finish in the primary along with President Donald Trump’s endorsement might seem like a guaranteed victory in a strongly Republican state. However, this path is less certain when entering a GOP runoff in South Carolina in 2026.
On Tuesday night, Sen. Darline Graham achieved her first electoral victory as a newcomer to politics, advancing to a runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman. The real challenge begins now.
Consider the case of Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, who, despite receiving Trump’s endorsement and leading after the initial round of voting in June’s gubernatorial primary, ultimately lost to Attorney General Alan Wilson in the runoff. Wilson’s surge also earned him an unusual dual endorsement from Trump in the race’s final days.
“The long and short of it, [Graham’s] got a pretty low ceiling,” a national GOP operative, who wished to remain anonymous, told POLITICO before the race.
In a showdown with Norman, Graham can more convincingly claim to be the sole Trump-aligned candidate. Norman has occasionally been a challenge for Trump from his position in the Freedom Caucus on Capitol Hill and drew Trump’s ire when he endorsed former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley for president in 2024.
“I asked for the president’s endorsement, didn’t get it. Anybody would want the endorsement, but he chose who he did, and that’s fine,” Norman remarked to reporters during his election night gathering. “South Carolina’s going to decide the next senator.”
Trump’s level of support for his preferred candidate could be crucial in helping Graham secure a runoff victory. Despite his standard Truth Social posts and a telerally on election eve, Trump has yet to indicate publicly whether he will join Graham on the campaign trail during the two-week runoff.
Another potential strategy for Graham’s victory draws from Wilson’s success in his runoff: he quickly united support from several of his primary opponents, securing endorsements from Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) and Norman.
Endorsements from former Gov. Mark Sanford and rising GOP Rep. Russell Fry, who lost in the first-round Senate primary, will be vital in the brief two-week contest between Graham and Norman.
Evette has not yet endorsed a candidate in the Senate race, nor has Wilson. His advice to the runoff candidates is to concentrate on the issues rather than attacking each other.
“I don’t think negative campaigning is going to make you look better, and it’s not going to get you more votes,” Wilson told POLITICO, noting that he will join both candidates on the campaign trail before the Aug. 25 runoff.
