Global forecast for 2025 sees temperatures falling back below 1.5°C

The Met Office, the UK’s national weather and climate service, has forecasted that the average global surface temperature for 2025 will range between 1.29°C and 1.53°C above the pre-industrial average. This prediction indicates a slight cooling compared to 2024, which is on track to be the first year to surpass 1.5°C.

According to Nick Dunstone from the Met Office, the observed global temperatures in recent years have been warmer than initially forecasted, with 2024 likely to be near the upper end of the temperature range predicted by the Met Office.

The anticipated decrease in surface temperature for 2025 is attributed to the transfer of heat from the atmosphere to the oceans, driven by the La Niña phenomenon. However, this cooling trend does not signify an end to global warming, as the overall heat content of both oceans and atmosphere continues to rise due to escalating carbon dioxide emissions.

Dunstone explains that most climate prediction models, including those of the Met Office, predict a weak La Niña event in the near future. During La Niñas, cooler waters surface in the Pacific and disperse, leading to a net heat transfer from the atmosphere to the oceans. Conversely, El Niños result in the opposite effect. The El Niño in 2023 played a role in the record-high temperatures of that year, which were surpassed in 2024. However, factors such as the Tonga volcanic eruption in 2022, rapid reductions in aerosol emissions, and changes in cloud cover may also have contributed to the warming trend.

Dunstone emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying causes of recent global warming trends to enhance the accuracy of future climate predictions.