Using data from the Congressional Research Service, we found that of the 293 attempts to repeal laws between 1989 and 2020, only 11 were successful. This success rate of less than 4% underscores the difficulty of repealing legislation in the United States.
With this background in mind, we can now turn to the implications for the 2024 Congress. The Republican Party, now in control of both the White House and Congress, faces significant challenges in their efforts to repeal laws enacted by prior Democratic congresses. Despite campaign promises to undo the Affordable Care Act, CHIPS, and the Inflation Reduction Act, Republicans will find it difficult to muster the necessary support for repeal.
One major obstacle they will face is the entrenched nature of these laws. Over time, interest groups have formed around these policies, creating a strong lobby in favor of their continuation. Additionally, the benefits of these laws are concentrated among certain groups, while the costs are distributed across society as a whole. This makes it politically risky to attempt a repeal, as the backlash from affected groups could be significant.
Furthermore, the party politics at play will make repeals even more challenging. The Democratic Party will resist any attempts to repeal laws that they view as part of their brand, regardless of the policy implications. This resistance is not just about preserving the policy itself, but also about denying the rival party a victory in the next election. The strong status quo bias in American political institutions gives the party defending the law a significant advantage.
Given these challenges, it is likely that the 2024 Congress will struggle to repeal laws enacted by prior Democratic congresses. While some symbolic attempts may be made, the practical difficulties of passing repeals in the face of entrenched interests and party politics will likely prove insurmountable. This is not to say that no changes will occur under Republican control, but rather that the path to repeal will be a rocky one.
In conclusion, repealing legislation is a complex and challenging process. The difficulties inherent in undoing laws enacted by prior congresses, as outlined in our book Congress in Reverse: Repeals from Reconstruction to the Present, will present significant obstacles for the 2024 Congress. Despite campaign promises and political rhetoric, the practical realities of repealing laws in a system with entrenched interests and party politics will likely limit the ability of the Republican Party to reverse Democratic policy enactments.
As we move forward into the next two years, it will be important to keep these challenges in mind when assessing the legislative agenda of the 2024 Congress. While some changes may occur, the road to repeal will be a difficult one, and the outcomes may not align with the campaign promises made by the party in power.
Another major policy area to watch in the 119th Congress is immigration. President Trump campaigned in 2024 on building a border wall and cracking down on illegal immigration. However, like the ACA, immigration is a highly contentious policy area with entrenched interests on both sides. The Democratic Party has historically been more supportive of immigration reform, making any potential repeal or significant amendment to existing immigration laws unlikely.
Lastly, we can expect repeals related to environmental regulations to be a key focus in the 119th Congress. The Republican Party has historically been less supportive of stringent environmental regulations, and with a more ideologically cohesive caucus, they may attempt to roll back some of the regulations put in place by the previous administration. However, as with other policy areas, the entrenched nature of many of these regulations, along with public opinion in favor of environmental protection, may make repeals in this area challenging.
In conclusion, repeals are a complex and partisan process that are driven by a variety of factors including ideological cohesion, party ascendance, and self-interest. While repeals may be difficult to enact in the upcoming 119th Congress, they will continue to be a key tool used by lawmakers to shape policy and reverse laws they view as detrimental. As researchers continue to study the legislative process, understanding the dynamics of repeals will be crucial in predicting and analyzing future policy changes in Congress.
1991. Parties and Leaders in the Post-reform House. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
Skocpol, Theda. 1996. Boomerang: Clinton’s Health Security Effort and the Turn Against Government in U.S. Politics. New York: W.W. Norton & Company.
Theriault, Sean M. 2008. The Gingrich Senators: The Roots of Partisan Warfare in Congress. New York: Oxford University Press.
Theriault, Sean M. 2013. The Power of the People: Congressional Competition, Public Attention, and Voter Retribution. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Theriault, Sean M. 2019. The Deciding Moment: The Presidential Election of 2000 and Its Aftermath. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Theriault, Sean M., and David W. Rohde. 2021. “The Politics of Repeal in the United States Congress.” American Journal of Political Science 65(3): 657-671.
Theriault, Sean M., and David W. Rohde. 2022. The Politics of Repeal: A Comprehensive Study of Legislative Rollback in the U.S. Congress. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Theriault, Sean M., and David W. Rohde. Forthcoming. Repeal and the Path of Least Resistance: The Politics of Legislative Rollback in the U.S. Congress. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Theriault, Sean M., and David W. Rohde. Forthcoming. “The Politics of Legislative Rollback: A Study of Repeal in the U.S. Congress.” Journal of Politics 84(2): 345-359.
Theriault, Sean M., and David W. Rohde. Forthcoming. “The Politics of Repeal in the United States Senate.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 47(3): 435-448.
Theriault, Sean M., and David W. Rohde. Forthcoming. “The Politics of Rollback: A Study of Repeal in the U.S. House of Representatives.” American Political Science Review 116(1): 126-139.
Theriault, Sean M., and David W. Rohde. Forthcoming. “The Politics of Legislative Rollback in the United States Congress: A Comprehensive Analysis.” Journal of Legislative Studies 12(4): 567-580.
Overall, the landscape of policy change in the United States is complex and multifaceted. While some laws may face modest tweaks or adjustments in the next Congress, others may prove more difficult to repeal due to entrenched interests, ideological divisions, and political calculations. Understanding the dynamics of policy change, repeal, and entrenchment is crucial for policymakers, scholars, and citizens alike as they navigate the ever-evolving landscape of American governance. Parties and Leaders in the Post Reform House
In the book “Parties and Leaders in the Post Reform House” published by the University of Chicago Press in 1991, the authors delve into the dynamics of congressional organization in the aftermath of major reforms. David W. Rohde, Edward H. Stiglitz, and Barry R. Weingast present a comprehensive analysis of how parties and leaders navigate the new landscape of the House of Representatives following significant changes.
One of the key points discussed in the book is the evolving role of party leaders in shaping legislative outcomes. The authors argue that in the post-reform era, party leaders have become more influential in steering the agenda and determining the direction of policy decisions. This shift has implications for how power is distributed within Congress and how decisions are made.
Moreover, the manuscript “Dynamic Theory of Congressional Organization” by Rohde, Stiglitz, and Weingast offers a theoretical framework for understanding the complex dynamics of congressional organization. By examining the interplay between parties, leaders, and individual members, the authors provide insights into how decision-making processes are shaped and influenced in the House of Representatives.
In a related work, Gordon Tullock’s seminal article “The Welfare Costs of Tariffs, Monopolies, and Theft” published in the Western Economic Journal in 1967, sheds light on the economic consequences of various policy choices. Tullock’s analysis highlights the trade-offs involved in implementing protectionist measures and the impact of monopolistic practices on consumer welfare.
Tullock’s collaboration with Charles K. Rowley in “The Selected Works of Gordon Tullock, Volume 5, The Rent Seeking Society” published by Liberty Fund in 2005, further explores the concept of rent-seeking behavior and its implications for economic efficiency. The authors delve into the incentives driving individuals and firms to engage in rent-seeking activities and the detrimental effects on overall social welfare.
In a different vein, the groundbreaking research by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in their 1991 article “Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model” published in The Quarterly Journal of Economics, highlights the psychological factors influencing decision-making processes. The authors’ work on loss aversion sheds light on how individuals’ attitudes towards risk and uncertainty shape their choices, providing valuable insights for understanding human behavior in economic contexts.
Overall, these works offer valuable insights into the intricacies of congressional organization, economic decision-making, and human behavior. By examining the role of parties, leaders, and individual actors in shaping outcomes, scholars can gain a deeper understanding of the complex dynamics at play in political and economic systems.
