” data-caption=”A line chart showing the governing parties’ vote share as a function of disaster relief spending per capita in Japan.” data-credit=”Courtesy of Daniel Aldrich” srcset=”https://grist.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/japan-disaster-votes.png?quality=75&strip=all 1600w, https://grist.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/japan-disaster-votes.png?resize=1200%2C675&quality=75&strip=all 1200w, https://grist.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/japan-disaster-votes.png?resize=330%2C186&quality=75&strip=all 330w, https://grist.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/japan-disaster-votes.png?resize=768%2C432&quality=75&strip=all 768w, https://grist.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/japan-disaster-votes.png?resize=1536%2C864&quality=75&strip=all 1536w, https://grist.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/japan-disaster-votes.png?resize=160%2C90&quality=75&strip=all 160w, https://grist.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/japan-disaster-votes.png?resize=150%2C84&quality=75&strip=all 150w” sizes=”(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px” height=”900″ width=”1600″ loading=”lazy” decoding=”async”>
The disaster effect – Grist
A line chart showing the governing parties’ vote share as a function of disaster relief spending per capita in Japan.
Courtesy of Daniel Aldrich
The research, published in the Journal of Urban Economics, found that the more money that flowed into a community after a disaster, the greater the incumbent party’s chances of winning the next election. The effect was stronger in areas with a history of low voter turnout and in regions with high levels of disaster damage, where the public was more likely to perceive the aid as a sign of the government’s effectiveness. And, Aldrich noted, the same trend seems to hold in the United States.
“After a disaster, people are looking for help,” Aldrich said. “If they see the government as being effective, helping them, they are more likely to support the government in the next election.”
Can we break the cycle of disaster aid becoming political patronage? Maybe — Aldrich’s research offers a few solutions. He suggests exploring the use of non-election years to distribute aid to disaster-affected areas, and creating independent bodies to oversee disaster relief funding. And he argues that the U.S. should invest more in disaster preparedness, which could save money in the long run and minimize the need for post-disaster aid, thus reducing the opportunity for political manipulation.
After all, we know disasters are going to happen. We can’t prevent them. But we can be ready for them when they do.
Just climate
Disasters are not just natural phenomena; they are political events. They shape voter behavior and influence election outcomes. As we face more frequent and intense disasters due to climate change, it’s crucial to understand how disaster politics work and how they can be used to build a more resilient and just society. Aldrich’s research sheds light on the power dynamics at play in the aftermath of disasters and offers solutions to prevent disaster aid from becoming a tool for political manipulation. By investing in disaster preparedness and creating oversight mechanisms for relief funding, we can ensure that communities are better equipped to withstand and recover from disasters, without falling victim to political patronage.
Let’s learn from history and use that knowledge to create a more just and resilient future for all.
Disaster spending and incumbent-party vote share have shown a positive correlation from 1996 to 2017, according to recent data analysis. As disaster spending increased during this time period, so did the incumbent-party vote share. This trend suggests that voters may be more likely to support the party in power when they perceive the government as effectively responding to disasters.
The data highlights the importance of disaster response and recovery efforts in shaping public opinion and influencing electoral outcomes. When the government allocates resources and implements policies to address the impacts of natural disasters, voters may view the incumbent party more favorably and reward them with their votes.
One possible explanation for this trend is that voters appreciate the government’s efforts to provide assistance and support during times of crisis. Effective disaster response can demonstrate leadership, competence, and a commitment to the well-being of the population, which can resonate with voters and influence their voting decisions.
The findings also underscore the significance of disaster preparedness and mitigation strategies in shaping political outcomes. Investing in resilient infrastructure, early warning systems, and emergency response capabilities can help minimize the impact of disasters and enhance public confidence in the government’s ability to protect and support its citizens.
As we continue to face increasing challenges from climate change and extreme weather events, the relationship between disaster spending, incumbent-party vote share, and public perception will remain a critical area of study. By understanding the dynamics of this relationship, policymakers can better anticipate and respond to the needs and expectations of voters, ultimately strengthening democratic governance and ensuring effective disaster management.
