The United States may be on the brink of experiencing negative net migration for the first time in over half a century, as President Trump intensifies deportation efforts targeting undocumented immigrants.
As detailed in a report from The Washington Post, a cohort of analysts and economists foresee a situation where the number of individuals leaving the U.S. surpasses those entering.
The article articulates:
Experts at two prominent Washington think tanks predict that President Donald Trump’s stringent immigration policies will catalyze this shift: from the near-total closure of the southern border to intimidation tactics aimed at international students and the revocation of legal status for numerous recent arrivals. A surge in deportations, fueled by recent workplace raids that provoked protests in cities like Los Angeles, is also a contributing factor.
This potential net outflow of immigrants could exacerbate inflation—an existing concern linked to Trump’s tariff strategies. It may also rekindle the labor shortages that plagued the nation during the pandemic. In the long term, this trend could influence fiscal policy, as a decrease in immigrant tax contributions could undermine entitlement programs, such as Social Security, according to economist Wendy Edelberg.
“For the year as a whole, we think it’s likely [immigration] will be negative,” Edelberg noted. “It would certainly mark the first instance in over 50 years.”
Edelberg and her colleague Tara Watson at the center-left Brookings Institution are collaborating with Stan Veuger from the conservative American Enterprise Institute on a forthcoming paper, expected to be published later this month. Their findings suggest an increased likelihood of negative immigration trends in 2025 compared to their previous forecasts from December.
For the first time in more than 50 years, U.S. immigration could go net negative in 2025—driven by sharp drops in legal inflows & increased deportations, say @BrookingsInst and @AEI economists. w/@LaurenKGurley https://t.co/EwLK9dK4Dy
— Andrew Ackerman (@amacker) June 15, 2025
This projection is likely to be welcomed by many conservatives who are not only anxious about the rising tide of illegal immigration but also the perceived unsustainable rates of legal migration.
In recent years, legal immigration has surged, largely driven by an uptick in work visas (such as H-1B and H-2A), increased refugee admissions, and a surge in green card approvals resulting from backlogs.
In the fiscal year 2023, over 1 million green cards were issued—among the highest totals in decades—while temporary visa admissions also reached new heights. Meanwhile, the Biden administration expanded humanitarian parole programs and family reunification pathways, contributing to a significant rise in legal immigration avenues alongside record numbers of illegal crossings.
