Asteroid 2024 YR4 could result in the largest impact on the moon for the past 5000 years
MARK GARLICK/SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY/Getty Images
The asteroid 2024 YR4, previously believed to pose a threat to Earth, now presents a potential risk to the moon. Recent observations suggest that there is a possibility of the space rock colliding with the moon, leading to an explosion that could generate a cloud of debris capable of damaging Earth’s satellites.
Initially discovered in December 2024, astronomers have been monitoring the trajectory of the building-sized asteroid. While early calculations indicated a potential collision with Earth in 2032, subsequent observations have confirmed that 2024 YR4 is unlikely to impact our planet.
However, the probability of a lunar collision has been gradually increasing, currently standing at 4.3 per cent based on the latest observations before the asteroid moved out of telescopic view until 2028. Researchers, including Paul Wiegert from the University of Western Ontario, warn that a collision with the moon could have significant repercussions for Earth’s satellites.
Wiegert’s team estimates that the impact of 2024 YR4 on the moon could create a kilometre-wide crater, the largest lunar impact in the past 5000 years. The resulting debris cloud could lead to a series of satellite collisions, potentially causing disruptions and damage to satellite functionalities.
While the exact extent of the damage remains uncertain, experts like Mark Burchell from the University of Kent emphasize the potential risks associated with debris particles impacting critical components of satellites. This underscores the importance for space agencies to consider strategies for asteroid deflection to mitigate such threats.
NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office acknowledges the need to address near-Earth objects that pose impact hazards not only to Earth but also to the moon. As 2024 YR4 reappears in telescopic view in 2028, there will be a window of opportunity to assess the situation and potentially take preventive measures if the likelihood of a lunar collision increases.
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