A recent study conducted by the Center for Immigration Studies raises a provocative question: Is the number of illegal immigrants in the United States on the decline?
The authors provide a preliminary estimate indicating that the population of illegal immigrants may have decreased by one million since the beginning of the year, possibly as a reaction to President Trump’s election and intensified enforcement measures. However, it’s crucial to approach these findings with a healthy dose of skepticism.
Key findings:
- According to data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics reveal a decline of 601,000 foreign-born individuals in the labor force from January to May 2025.
- Our analysis of raw data indicates a total decrease of 957,000 in the foreign-born population, encompassing both labor force participants and those outside it, marking one of the most significant reductions over a four-month span in the past thirty years, albeit not entirely without precedent.
- This decline occurred exclusively among non-citizens; the number of naturalized U.S. citizens remained stable during the same period.
- We estimate that as of May 2025, there are approximately 14.8 million illegal immigrants in the U.S., which is one million less than our January estimate.
Nevertheless, the authors caution that important caveats surround these statistics:
1) While the drop in non-citizens is statistically significant, the overall decline in the foreign-born population is not. 2) Given the recent uptick in enforcement actions, it’s plausible that the observed decline results, at least in part, from a hesitance among immigrants to participate in surveys or identify as foreign-born, rather than an actual reduction in their numbers. 3) Lastly, some necessary administrative data for estimating illegal immigrant populations is still unavailable, rendering our May figures merely preliminary.
Even proponents of the administration’s aggressive deportation strategy seem to concede that these numbers might only be explicable through self-deportation, as official deportation figures are far too low to account for a significant impact on the overall illegal immigrant population.
In my examination of various labor market time series, I found no evidence supporting the notion of mass self-deportation. In fact, the labor force has experienced an unusual growth rate of 1.6% over the past year:
This monthly survey data tends to be somewhat erratic, so I also reviewed the more stable monthly payroll employment data, which shows job growth exceeding 100,000 per month throughout 2025—a sign of a robust economy. If a million illegal immigrants had indeed self-deported, one would expect a sharp decline in overall employment figures.
It’s conceivable that a surge of unemployed domestic workers could have filled the void left by departing farmworkers and housekeepers. However, the unemployment rate actually rose from 4.0% to 4.2% between January and May 2025, contradicting that scenario.
The most plausible explanation for these survey results seems to be that illegal immigrants are increasingly hesitant to respond to government surveys. And who could blame them? There have been reports of immigrants arriving for what they believed to be routine immigration hearings, only to unexpectedly find themselves facing deportation:
Phoenix immigration attorney Nera Shefer reported that some of her clients arrived in court ready to celebrate when federal lawyers dropped their cases, only to leave in handcuffs instead.
“It used to be a reason to celebrate when your case was dismissed,” she lamented. “Not anymore. Now, the government seizes the opportunity to reprocess you under new regulations. That’s the reality.”
