As the Democratic Party looks toward the upcoming elections, many within its ranks are banking on the emergence of a “blue wave” to restore their standing with frustrated voters and reclaim some control in Washington. However, recent indicators suggest that optimism may be misplaced, presenting a series of cautionary signs instead.
Polling data indicates that Democrats are still struggling to connect with voters who shifted right in 2024, compounded by widening gaps in fundraising, a surge of contentious primaries, and a congressional map being redrawn by Republicans to complicate Democratic victories.
“I don’t see a blue wave,” said Matt Taglia, senior director of Emerson College polling, a nonpartisan organization that frequently conducts political surveys. “It’s more like a blue trickle.”
Nonetheless, as Democrats take proactive measures during the August recess, they are attempting to ignite a blue wave by capitalizing on backlash against policies enacted under a Republican trifecta. They have employed various strategies, targeting issues such as President Donald Trump’s management of the Jeffrey Epstein files, tariffs, and potential economic fallout stemming from a megabill.
The stakes are particularly high for Democrats, as a wave election could help stymie Republican efforts in Congress and pave a smoother path toward the 2028 presidential election and beyond. While some party members concede that momentum is currently lacking, they remain confident it will materialize by early 2026.
“There’s a lot of angst about the Democratic Party writ large. I totally hear that. But you have evidence of people on the Democratic side pretty motivated to come out and vote,” noted Neera Tanden, president and CEO of the left-leaning think tank Center for American Progress and a former domestic policy advisor to President Joe Biden. “I think the midterm election will be about who is angrier.”
Courtney Rice, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, reinforced the commitment to fostering a wave election next year: “It’s clear that Democrats are on a path back to the House majority come 2026.”
However, Republicans are skeptical about the Democrats’ prospects for overcoming their challenges by 2026.
“Vulnerable House Democrats are sitting on our turf,” stated Mike Marinella, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “They’re getting blown out of the water in the money race, they’re eating their own in messy primaries, the Democrat Party’s approval ratings are at rock bottom, they are consistently on the wrong side of wildly popular issues, and they’ve completely lost touch with hardworking Americans.”
The polls don’t yet look good for Democrats
Despite a significant decline in Trump’s approval ratings, approximately 63% of voters express negative views toward Democrats, marking a three-decade low for the party, according to a recent Wall Street Journal poll. Furthermore, in separate surveys conducted by Emerson College and YouGov, Democrats lead by a mere 2 percentage points in a generic matchup against Republicans.
This suggests that Democrats are struggling to leverage what they claim is Republican mismanagement of economic and foreign policy. In 2017, leading up to the Democrats’ substantial blue wave in 2018—during which they gained a net of 41 House seats—the party had a 6-point lead in the generic ballot, Taglia pointed out.
However, the blue wave dream is not yet extinguished. With Election Day still 15 months away, about a quarter of voters remain undecided on the congressional ballot. The impacts of the megabill and other salient policies, such as mass deportations, may not be felt until the campaign season, presenting an opportunity for Democrats to win back voters who veered right in 2024.
“If we get to March of next year and we still see Democrats at 2 or 3 points up in the generic ballot, that is alarm bells for them,” Taglia warned. “They’re going to want to be at least 4 points up. For their ideal result, probably more like 6 points … Then you’re starting to look a little bit like a blue wave.”
Redistricting could bite into Democrats’ opportunities
Recently, Texas Republicans unveiled a new congressional map, which, if implemented, would create five additional red-leaning districts. These changes, driven by Trump, could significantly impede Democrats’ plans to reclaim the House.
In response, Democrats are striving to rebuild relationships with voters in four newly established majority-Hispanic districts in Texas that shifted right in 2024.
“Donald Trump and Texas Republicans are playing a dangerous game, and we’re ready to defeat now-vulnerable Republicans next November,” asserted CJ Warnke, spokesperson for House Majority PAC, Democrats’ leading House super PAC. “We’re bringing the full weight of our operation to the Lone Star State to make this backroom deal backfire and take back the House in 2026.”
Republicans are also looking to carve out additional red districts in other states. Given the razor-thin margins that determine control of the House, these redistricting maneuvers could greatly hinder Democrats’ chances of retaking the chamber.
Some Democratic governors, like California’s Gavin Newsom and New York’s Kathy Hochul, have hinted at retaliatory gerrymandering campaigns ahead of the midterms. However, the feasibility of these efforts remains uncertain, as these states have delegated redistricting authority to independent commissions, unlike Texas. Consequently, they may have to rely on voter referenda or court orders to regain this power, with a deadline looming in early 2026.
Tanden expressed optimism that California could counter Texas’ gerrymandering by 2026, stating, “If someone was like, ‘while Trump is president we’re going to get rid of the commission,’ people would be down with that.”
Democrats are facing down messy primaries
House Democrats are currently confronting a landscape of crowded primaries across the board.
Some party members fear that prolonged disputes over intraparty tactics and contentious issues, such as Israel’s conflict in Gaza, could splinter voter support and deplete resources that would be better utilized in the general election.
Infighting over the prospect of challenging incumbents has caused upheaval within the Democratic National Committee, leading to former Vice Chair David Hogg losing his position amid backlash over his proposal to primary “asleep at the wheel” Democrats.
Democratic leaders are increasingly concerned that divisive primaries could derail the party’s efforts to retake the House, prompting House Majority PAC to threaten intervention in primaries if deemed necessary for reclaiming control.
Conversely, Republicans have sought to streamline their candidate pool. Trump recently urged several ambitious Republicans to withdraw from the race to avoid prolonged infighting, while Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated he is prepared to intervene in primaries to avoid nominating candidates likely to lose in November.
Despite these concerns, some Democratic strategists argue that these primaries could serve to energize their base ahead of the general election against Republicans.
Democratic media consultant Julian Mulvey remarked, “You may think that you’re saving energy, resources, but if you’re not putting forward your best fighters and they’re not able to sharpen up their attacks, sharpen up their defenses, you’re not actually helping Democrats.”
Others contend that the Democratic primaries are not shaping up to be the kind of ideological battles that could alienate voters before the general election. There are few candidates who stray significantly from the median voter, minimizing the risk of creating rifts, according to Democratic strategist Ian Russell: “It means you don’t have a bunch of wounds that need to be healed in the party.”
Democratic fundraising is still lackluster
In terms of financial resources, Republicans have generally outpaced Democrats in fundraising this year, particularly in key House battlegrounds.
Recent campaign finance reports revealed that the Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House GOP super PAC, raised over $32.7 million in the first half of the year—approximately $11.5 million more than its Democratic counterpart, House Majority PAC.
This disparity highlights the increasingly fraught relationship between Democrats and their donors, who have become disillusioned by infighting among party leadership and inconsistent messaging. Historically, House Democrats have dominated fundraising efforts due to strong online contributions.
Democrats remain hopeful that they can catch up by early next year, as the GOP has front-loaded fundraising through joint committees that consolidate funds for numerous candidates. However, this approach tends to rely on large national donors, potentially making it less sustainable for individual campaigns.
For Republicans targeted by the DCCC, around 30% of their fundraising in the first half of the year came from joint committees, while only about 4% of fundraising for DCCC-targeted House Democrats came from similar sources, according to a POLITICO analysis.
Tanden expressed optimism that “there will be a fair amount of resources for Democratic units,” pointing to Roy Cooper’s recently announced bid for the North Carolina Senate, which broke fundraising records within its first 24 hours.
Warnke, the House Majority PAC spokesperson, countered that no amount of money can overcome the negative perceptions stemming from GOP policies.
“Republicans’ tariffs are raising prices on American families, and they are hiding from their constituents because of their deeply toxic budget,” he said. “No amount of money will salvage their chances at reelection.”
Jessica Piper contributed to this report.
