RFK Jr.'s CDC Is Poised To Restrict Vaccines Even Further

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The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) immunization advisory committee, recently impacted by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is set to gather this Thursday to tackle a pivotal agenda item affecting national health and the pharmaceutical sector: childhood vaccinations against diseases such as hepatitis B, measles, chickenpox, and COVID-19.

Traditionally, the meetings of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) have been somewhat low-profile, but since 1964 they have played a critical role in formulating immunization guidelines that significantly influence public health policy. These recommendations are usually adopted by states to create vaccine mandates for schools and are also followed by insurers to decide which vaccines they will cover. Global efforts in vaccination programs have resulted in saving 154 million lives over the past fifty years, with over 100 million being children, according to a study published in The Lancet.

“ACIP isn’t ACIP anymore. It’s essentially an extension of our Secretary of HHS, who has been an anti-vaccine advocate for the last two decades.”

Since his appointment, Kennedy has aggressively championed anti-vaccine policies at the federal level. The upcoming meeting is poised to be a defining moment for U.S. immunization legislation. Kennedy has already proposed a no-bid contract to Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute to ‘investigate’ debunked links between vaccines and autism and has appointed members to the committee who have expressed opposition to COVID vaccines, including Retsef Levi and Robert Malone, both of whom have disseminated claims against vaccines that are contrary to mainstream scientific consensus.

Some reports suggest ACIP may restrict future COVID-19 vaccine recommendations to individuals over the age of 75 and others with specific preexisting conditions, as previously highlighted by The Washington Post.

As Dr. Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, noted, “We should be very concerned because ACIP isn’t what it used to be; it now appears to be an extension of our Secretary of HHS, who has a long-standing anti-vaccine agenda.”

This development places pharmaceutical companies in uncertain territory; the vaccination market is substantial, with Grand View Research estimating it reached $88 billion last year. The U.S. commands a major share of this market, and the safety and regulatory assurances that have historically characterized vaccine production may now be in jeopardy.

“Although vaccines may not constitute a significant portion of pharmaceuticals’ annual revenue, any unjustified changes could lead to unforeseen declines,” noted Rajiv Leventhal, a healthcare analyst at eMarketer.

On a related note, shares of leading COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers fell sharply recent Friday when health officials from the Trump Administration began probing unverified claims of child fatalities linked to vaccines. Moderna, which saw its stock soar to $200 billion at the pandemic’s zenith, suffered a severe drop of 7% that day, primarily due to its reliance on mRNA vaccines. In contrast, Pfizer has a more diversified product range; the COVID-19 vaccine revenue, which was $5.4 billion last year, constituted less than 10% of its total $64 billion earnings, leading to only a 4% drop in stock price. Smaller firms like Novavax experienced a similar decrease amid ongoing anti-vaccine sentiments.

At least 14 states, including New York and New Mexico, have independently established their own pro-vaccine policies for COVID-19 vaccinations.

The spread of conspiracy theories and misinformation regarding mRNA vaccines—claiming they alter genetic material or include tracking microchips—has fueled public skepticism. Investors’ reactions are unsurprising given this sustained narrative against vaccines, exacerbated by Kennedy’s advocacy through Children’s Health Defense.

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Since assuming leadership at HHS, Kennedy has halted a contract with Moderna valued at up to $760 million for developing an mRNA vaccine against potential pandemic influenza and also cut approximately $500 million in funding for mRNA vaccine research. In August, the FDA imposed further restrictions on COVID-19 vaccination eligibility, creating confusion among individuals seeking to be vaccinated ahead of a potential surge in cases this fall. With fragmented vaccination policies emerging, 14 states, including New York and New Mexico, have enforced their own favorable policies for COVID-19 vaccines, while Florida has indicated plans to abolish its vaccine mandates without a thorough review of effects relating to this decision.

Certainly, a more significant concern lies in the ongoing childhood vaccinations against preventable diseases including measles, chickenpox, and hepatitis B. The childhood immunization initiatives in the United States are hailed as a significant triumph in public health. They have effectively eliminated measles since 2000 in the U.S. and reduced hepatitis B infections by 99%, rendering whooping cough a rarity. Despite a strong consensus among American adults—79% supporting childhood vaccination requirements for school attendance, there has been a noticeable decline in vaccination rates, as reported by the CDC.

A minor reduction in vaccination rates could lead to catastrophic public health outcomes; even a 10% drop could mean millions of hospitalizations and tens of thousands of deaths among children, as shown in a recent study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association. Recent immunization rate declines have already precipitated significant outbreaks of measles and whooping cough this year.

The current array of state-specific COVID-19 vaccine policies is likely to expand to other vaccinations, as noted by analyst Leventhal. ACIP might refrain from establishing clear directives, effectively empowering individual states to set their policies. Alternatively, it could release recommendations that diverge significantly from established science, prompting states to adhere to their public health agencies or other medical organizations. “What could emerge is a fragmented landscape of vaccine policy across the nation,” Leventhal cautioned.

“They might argue that other nations do not use the chickenpox vaccine, so why should we?”

Compounding the ambiguity are concerns surrounding insurance coverage. Once the acting CDC director Jim O’Neill approves ACIP’s recommendations, vaccine provision under Medicare, Part D, and Medicaid must occur at no charge for individuals qualifying under those guidelines. However, if ACIP’s recommendations fall short of medical consensus, subsidies from insurers, particularly government programs, might diminish, leaving millions of children without free access to crucial vaccines. Despite assurances from the largest health insurers’ association to provide coverage for vaccines recommended as of September 1, this may not align with local political interests, potentially resulting in inconsistent coverage for essential immunizations.

Since taking office, Kennedy has directed ACIP to reevaluate the CDC’s hepatitis B vaccination guidelines and has frequently echoed discredited assertions linking vaccines to autism. The CDC’s website specifically highlights the absence of any such links. Earlier this year, the ACIP meeting saw member Martin Kuldorff present a widely disapproved report claiming a connection between the MMRV vaccine—which protects against measles, mumps, rubella, and chickenpox—and childhood seizures; this subject is back on the agenda for discussion this week. Furthermore, HHS has ceased including expert opinions from medical associations in vaccine discussions, limiting the opportunity for vaccine manufacturers to present updated data on COVID-19 vaccines.

As we approach the CDC’s vaccine advisory committee meeting this week, uncertainty looms. Offit remarked, “Literally anything could unfold. They could discourage hepatitis B vaccinations or doubt the effectiveness of the RSV vaccine… They might even suggest that since other countries neglect the chickenpox vaccine, we should too.”

This story was updated on September 18 @ 10 a.m. to incorporate the insurers’ association’s pledge to continue covering recommended vaccines as of September 1.