On a notable Tuesday evening, fans tuning in to watch “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” in over 60 markets across the U.S. faced disappointment as the program was conspicuously absent from their local ABC stations. This marked Kimmel’s long-awaited return after a weeklong suspension implemented by Disney. Despite the local blackout, the incident seemingly propelled viewers to alternatives, with many flocking to YouTube where ABC later uploaded Kimmel’s monologue around midnight ET. This monologue quickly became the show’s most-watched video of the year, underlining the show’s robust online following despite its traditional broadcast hurdles.
The refusal of both Sinclair and Nexstar to air Kimmel was ostensibly a protest over statements he made regarding Charlie Kirk, a controversial figure. Instead of airing Kimmel’s show, these stations opted for news programming in the late-night slot. At the heart of the matter is a quietly brewing political conflict, as FCC Chairman Brendan Carr has expressed an intention to investigate alleged “news distortion” against Kimmel’s show while seemingly backing efforts to curb progressive programming on local TV. Critics have accused Carr of using his position to silence voices he disagrees with, particularly against the backdrop of the Trump administration’s ideals.
As the boycott persists, eyes turn toward Sinclair and Nexstar: when will they allow “Kimmel” to return to their lineups, and which side stands to lose more both in reputation and revenue—Disney and ABC or Sinclair and Nexstar?
In a statement on Wednesday, Nexstar revealed that they are “continuing to evaluate the status of ‘Jimmy Kimmel Live!’ on our ABC-affiliated local television stations” and that the program would remain preempted during this evaluation. They emphasized productive discussions with the Disney executives aimed at ensuring the show “respects the diverse interests of the communities we serve.”
Currently, it remains uncertain how long “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” might be sidelined from Sinclair’s 38 ABC affiliates and Nexstar’s 32 ABC channels. Nexstar has been noncommittal beyond Wednesday’s deadline, while Sinclair reaffirmed its commitment to ongoing discussions regarding Kimmel’s potential return. A representative from Disney has, however, opted to remain silent on the matter.
Interestingly, the financial repercussion for Disney, Nexstar, and Sinclair appears to be minimal. As per Matt Dolgin, a senior equity analyst with Morningstar, even an extended blackout lasting an entire year would amount to negligible losses—only a few million dollars for Disney, which reported nearly $91.4 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2024. Dolgin further mentioned that Nexstar and Sinclair collectively see less than $10 million in annual ad revenue from broadcasting “Kimmel.”
Dolgin remarked, “Disney will be fine either way,” pointing out that the critical relationship between Disney and these station owners far outweighs the immediate monetary effects. He also noted the impending 2026 expiration of existing affiliate agreements, making renewal crucial for a sustainable future. ABC boasts owned-and-operated stations in four of the largest U.S. markets: New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Philadelphia, with Tegna-owned WFAA serving the Dallas-Fort Worth area, providing Disney with a solid foothold in major markets.
Among the ABC affiliates operated by Nexstar and Sinclair, only Sinclair’s WJLA in Washington, D.C. and KOMO in Seattle reside within the top 20 U.S. markets. “Kimmel’s ratings are suspected to be lower in the smaller, typically more conservative-leaning markets where Nexstar and Sinclair’s ABC affiliates are located,” said Dolgin. Each of the station groups has affiliates across various regions.
Should Sinclair and Nexstar prolong the blackout, they run the risk of alienating viewers. Viewers may express their dissatisfaction with the missed content or perceive the blackout as a violation of First Amendment freedoms, warns Prof. Danilo Yanich from the University of Delaware, who specializes in media industry research. The implications of these actions could reverberate through their respective audiences, potentially swaying public sentiment against them.
Complicating negotiations further, Sinclair previously stated that any potential return of Kimmel requires an apology directed at Kirk’s family as well as a donation to Turning Point USA, Kirk’s founded organization—conditions that seem unlikely to be agreed upon between Kimmel and Disney.
If Disney were to opt against renewing ABC affiliation deals with Nexstar or Sinclair, analysts categorize it as a “nuclear option.” However, a transformative move by the FCC to increase or eliminate the 39% television station ownership cap could lead to further consolidation, altering power dynamics in future negotiations.
Despite possible scenarios where Disney could be severely impacted by non-renewal of these agreements, the general consensus remains that their stability is not at existential risk. Disney could still reach audiences through its streaming platforms such as Hulu and Disney+, which could eventually encompass all ABC programming—a pivot that may counterbalance the relatively minor losses from traditional broadcasting.
In contrast, the revenue streams for Nexstar and Sinclair largely hinge on broadcast portfolios, with significant chunks of their advertising revenue reliant on their ABC affiliations. Analysts highlight that over 27% of Sinclair’s total advertising income derives from ABC affiliates, denoting a substantial risk should their partnership falter.
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