A SpaceX rocket booster is on track to hit the moon at several times the speed of sound
While there is no immediate danger, this crash highlights that space junk is increasingly expanding out of lower-Earth orbit
A piece of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is set to collide with the moon’s surface at supersonic speed in August, potentially creating a crater. This event underscores the increasing threat of space debris extending beyond lower-Earth orbit, as NASA and other space agencies intensify efforts to send humans back to the moon.
Independent astronomer Bill Gray, who develops software to track celestial objects, identified the rogue booster. Originally launched in January 2025, the rocket carried lunar landers from private companies Firefly Aerospace and Japan’s ispace. While the booster was expected to disintegrate upon reentry into Earth’s atmosphere, it instead entered a 26-day orbit, reaching up to 310,000 miles from Earth and intersecting with the moon’s path. Gray calculated that the booster will hit the moon on August 5 at 2:44 A.M. EDT, traveling at approximately 5,400 miles per hour.
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Gray first noticed the impending collision last September. While accounting for gravitational forces from Earth, the sun, and the moon was straightforward, solar radiation pressure added complexity. This tiny but cumulative force from solar photons hitting the booster introduces uncertainty regarding the exact impact location, which Gray estimates could vary by a few dozen kilometers. The most likely impact area is near the Einstein Crater on the moon’s western edge, making the event difficult to observe from Earth.
Previously, Gray predicted a similar event in 2022, when a Chinese rocket component collided with the moon, forming dual craters. These incidents highlight the danger space debris poses to future lunar missions. Despite space’s vastness, Gray asserts that such collisions are inevitable.
Gray emphasizes that while this crash doesn’t pose an immediate threat, it signals the transfer of the space junk problem from Earth to the moon. With plans from the U.S. and China to establish lunar human presence in the near future, real risks could develop, warns John Crassidis, a professor at the University at Buffalo. He advises caution as more human-made objects orbit the moon, potentially forming a debris field.
“Philosophically, we shouldn’t bring Earth’s problems to the moon or other celestial bodies,” Crassidis says, warning of potential future issues. SpaceX has not responded to requests for comment.
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