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American Focus > Blog > Economy > A US recession doesn’t seem so likely any more
Economy

A US recession doesn’t seem so likely any more

Last updated: May 16, 2025 12:50 am
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A US recession doesn’t seem so likely any more
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The White House Watch newsletter offers valuable insights into what Trump’s second term means for Washington, business, and the world. As the director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute points out, the impact of Trump’s trade war on the US economy has been a topic of concern. The recent decision to cut tariff rates on Chinese imports has brought some relief to investors and economists, leading to a more optimistic outlook for the economy.

The writer emphasizes that while Trump’s trade policies initially raised concerns about a possible recession, his recent actions indicate a willingness to de-escalate the conflict with China. This shift in approach has been well-received by the markets, with the potential for trade deals to be resolved and a more positive outlook for economic growth.

Despite the positive developments, the writer acknowledges that challenges remain, particularly in terms of the impact of tariffs on consumer prices and business competitiveness. The uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade policy continues to be a concern for businesses and investors, which could hinder economic growth in the long run.

While the writer remains cautiously optimistic about the US economy’s resilience and Trump’s willingness to pivot when necessary, the overall impact of the trade war is still a cause for concern. Avoiding a recession may be a short-term success, but the long-term consequences of Trump’s trade policies could have lasting effects on the economy.

In conclusion, the writer highlights the importance of monitoring the economic data and staying vigilant against potential risks. By staying informed and adapting to changing circumstances, the US economy can navigate through the challenges posed by Trump’s trade war and strive towards sustainable growth.

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