A Look at the Day Ahead in European and Global Markets
The euphoria from this week’s mix of market tailwinds appears to have run its course, with investors left searching for the next catalyst. That could come later in the day from U.S. retail sales and Walmart’s earnings.
Asian stocks drifted and futures pointed to a mixed opening in Europe on Thursday, as investors sobered up to the fact that there remains much uncertainty over the outlook for the global economy and U.S. President Donald Trump’s chaotic trade policies.
Key for markets will be results from Walmart, a bellwether for the U.S. retail industry, for an indication on whether the Arkansas behemoth is truly best placed to navigate the uncertainty from Trump’s tariffs.
Walmart is among a handful of large companies that have not either pulled or slashed their forecasts. The company last month reaffirmed its annual forecast, saying “nothing in the current environment changes its strategy”.
Should that change, investors will no doubt be alarmed.
The results come alongside U.S. retail sales data for the month of April, where expectations are for a flat reading on a monthly basis.
Together, the releases will offer clues on the health of the U.S. consumer, and upbeat numbers could narrow the chances of a recession in the world’s largest economy, which would in turn be a boon for stocks.
Also on the market’s radar is a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, where the focus will be on any hints he may give regarding the outlook for U.S. monetary policy.
So far, the hard data has given Fed policymakers little to go on as they try to assess how Trump’s sweeping tariffs and ongoing trade negotiations will affect prices and the economy. And it is likely Powell will reiterate his patient approach on rates.
Ahead of the U.S. releases, preliminary first-quarter growth figures for the UK and euro zone are also due, though investors are likely to look past those numbers given they pre-date Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.
In currency markets, the dollar remained volatile against the Korean won, sliding for a second straight day on news that South Korea’s deputy finance minister discussed forex with a U.S. Treasury official earlier this month.
The moves in the won were reminiscent of an unprecedented surge in the Taiwan dollar just a few days ago, again stoking speculation that a weaker dollar could be part of Trump’s trade deal with other countries.
Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:
– UK preliminary GDP (Q1)
– Euro zone flash GDP (Q1)
– U.S. retail sales (April)
– Walmart earnings
– Fed Chair Powell speaks
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