Vance Commands GOP Landscape in New Hampshire, While Democrats Face Off
In a striking preview of the 2028 presidential primary landscape, Vice President JD Vance is making a bold statement in New Hampshire, securing a commanding 56 percent support among potential GOP candidates. Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, California Governor Gavin Newsom and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are neck and neck, each garnering 23 percent in a recent poll conducted by Saint Anselm College.
Vance’s dominance is particularly telling, as no other Republican contender managed to breach the double-digit mark. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis trails significantly with just 8 percent support, followed by a host of familiar names including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and former Rep. Liz Cheney. Notably, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who previously enjoyed 43 percent of the primary vote in 2024, is also in the mix, alongside Vivek Ramaswamy, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Sen. Ted Cruz.
On the Democratic front, Buttigieg, who previously placed second in the 2020 New Hampshire primary, shares the spotlight with Newsom. Following them are Illinois Governor JB Pritzker at 9 percent and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) at 7 percent. Meanwhile, former Vice President Kamala Harris, who narrowly won the state last election, finds herself lagging behind the frontrunners with just 6 percent support.
In the race behind Harris, we see Senators Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)—who has previously conquered the state’s Democratic primary but is not anticipated to run again—and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), who finished third in 2020. Rounding out the Democratic contenders are Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. This survey, executed online from August 26-27, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points.
It’s noteworthy that nearly all leading Democratic figures have made recent visits to New Hampshire, engaging in party fundraisers or campaigning for local candidates—rituals that presidential hopefuls typically embrace in the state known for its first-in-the-nation primary status. Buttigieg’s enduring popularity in New Hampshire is a testament to his campaign efforts in 2020, while Newsom’s star is rising among Democratic activists as he vocally challenges the Trump administration’s policies, particularly concerning redistricting.
Conversely, the absence of prominent Republican names in New Hampshire since the last election raises questions. However, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) made a recent appearance, launching her gubernatorial bid shortly thereafter, hinting at a possible shift in strategy among GOP contenders as they look toward the future.
Conclusion
This early polling snapshot underscores the shifting dynamics within both parties as they gear up for the 2028 primaries. Vance’s overwhelming support among Republicans suggests a consolidation around his leadership, while the Democratic race remains competitive, with several candidates striving to consolidate their bases in a rapidly evolving political landscape. As we move closer to the primaries, the stakes will only rise, offering a fertile ground for both parties to test their messages and strategies.
