As tensions between China and the United States continue to escalate, the lack of in-person meetings between experts and officials from both countries has become a concerning trend. The restrictions imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic have made it difficult for meaningful communication to take place, further exacerbating the existing distrust and misunderstandings between the two nations. The decline in face-to-face interactions has created a self-reinforcing cycle, with many experts who used to travel frequently between the two countries now hesitant to do so.
Both official “track I” meetings and unofficial “track II” meetings play a crucial role in maintaining stable relations and open channels of communication between China and the United States. However, the current lack of opportunities for dialogue is hindering progress in key areas such as arms control and diplomatic negotiations.
During a recent visit to China, discussions with Chinese experts centered around the implications of Donald Trump’s re-election on US-China relations. Here are four key points that emerged from those conversations:
Improving Communication between Countries
Effective communication between the United States and China is essential for addressing issues such as arms control and trade disputes. The breakdown in communication channels has raised concerns that military confrontation may become the default mode of interaction between the two nations. It is crucial to rebuild and maintain official and unofficial dialogues to prevent further escalation of tensions.
While President Trump’s administration has taken a tough stance on China, recent gestures such as restarting the trade war with smaller tariffs and reaffirming the One China Policy indicate a willingness to engage in diplomacy. However, there are concerns that some members of the new administration may lack a deep understanding of Chinese perspectives, highlighting the need for genuine and constructive dialogue.
Challenges in US-China Arms Control
The prospects for progress in arms control between the United States and China are slim. China advocates for arms control through international treaties and insists that reductions in US and Russian nuclear arsenals must precede any negotiations. The disparity in the size of nuclear stockpiles between the three countries poses a significant obstacle to reaching a comprehensive agreement.
Chinese experts emphasize the importance of addressing the concerns of both Russia and the United States before engaging in trilateral arms control talks. While China’s nuclear arsenal is smaller than that of the US and Russia, recent expansions are seen as a response to evolving security threats rather than a shift in nuclear strategy.
Risks of Nuclear Proliferation
The failure to make progress on North Korean denuclearization and rising tensions in regions like the Korean Peninsula and the Middle East have raised concerns about nuclear proliferation. The Trump administration’s policies have contributed to uncertainties regarding US commitments to allies and non-proliferation efforts.
Chinese experts express apprehensions about the potential for South Korea to acquire nuclear weapons, citing ambiguous signals from the Trump administration. The role of the US in maintaining extended nuclear deterrence and its impact on regional stability are subjects of ongoing debate.
Taiwan as a Flashpoint
The Taiwan Strait remains a critical flashpoint in US-China relations, with the risk of conflict looming over the region. Chinese military activities and provocative actions from US politicians have heightened tensions, underscoring the need for careful diplomacy and crisis management.
Chinese experts caution against unilateral actions that could destabilize the status quo in Taiwan, emphasizing the importance of upholding diplomatic agreements and avoiding confrontational gestures. The potential for misinterpretations in nuclear scenarios underscores the urgency of clear communication and mutual understanding.
China’s Focus on Stability
Chinese perspectives on the second Trump administration reflect a mix of cautious optimism and pragmatism. While Beijing anticipates challenges in dealing with the new administration, efforts to strengthen bilateral communication and cooperation are seen as essential for maintaining a baseline of stability in US-China relations.
Rebuilding trust and fostering dialogue across various domains is critical for addressing complex issues such as arms control, non-proliferation, and regional conflicts. By prioritizing stability and predictability, both China and the United States can work towards diffusing tensions and promoting mutual understanding.
