The next destination on President Donald Trump’s quest for retribution is Kentucky.
Following the recent removal of several Indiana state lawmakers and Sen. Bill Cassidy, the White House is strategically positioned to potentially unseat Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s GOP primary on Tuesday.
This marks one of the final stages in Trump’s ongoing campaign to discipline Republicans who have opposed him. Massie’s transgressions include opposing Trump’s key tax-and-spending plan and taking strong stances against the war in Iran, as well as advocating for the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files.
“Trump is coming in as the leader of the party and he has every right to flex his muscle,” remarked Shane Noem, who remains neutral in the race and serves as the chair of the Kenton County Republican Party in Massie’s district. “The question remains: Will the ‘Average Joe’ Republican lean into the party, or will they lean into an outsider who’s been in the party for 14 years?”
The future of the Kentucky libertarian represents a significant test of Trump’s influence over the GOP on Tuesday. In Georgia, a Trump-supported gubernatorial candidate is poised for a runoff, while Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who rejected Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election, is polling in third. Meanwhile, in Alabama, Trump’s endorsement of Rep. Barry Moore in the Senate primary has elevated him to a leading position.
The president’s support has been a critical factor in GOP primaries, energizing his base. A POLITICO poll conducted by Public First from May 9 to 11 found that nearly half of Republican midterm voters would prefer a candidate endorsed by Trump, compared to a candidate without his endorsement but not opposed by him (28 percent), or a candidate he actively opposes (9 percent).
Trump and his allies have recently succeeded in targeting his adversaries, spending over $9 million to remove five state lawmakers in Indiana who opposed his redistricting efforts. In Louisiana, Trump’s social media influence supported Rep. Julia Letlow early in the race and State Treasurer John Fleming in the final hours.
Massie, however, has been a significant target for Trump and his team. Trump’s endorsement of former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein has rallied local GOP forces against the maverick Kentucky conservative. Spending in this race has reached over $32 million, the highest in House primary history, as tracked by AdImpact. Trump’s political allies and pro-Israel groups have invested over $16 million against Massie. Trump campaigned with Gallrein in March, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth promoted him at a recent district event.
Polls indicate a narrowing race as it approaches its conclusion, with one survey showing Massie leading Gallrein by slightly more than 1 percentage point, while two others show him trailing by 7 and 8 points.
Trump’s supporters are optimistic following his victories in other red states. Chris LaCivita, his former campaign manager and leader of the anti-Massie super PAC MAGA KY, recently posted on X about an upcoming victory, responding to a meme showing Trump hitting Cassidy with a golf ball.
When asked for comment, the White House highlighted Trump’s Truth Social post praising Gallrein as a “WINNER WHO WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN” and calling Massie “a totally ineffective LOSER who has failed us so badly.”
Massie is a more challenging target than others Trump has faced. His libertarian-conservative views resonate with his northern Kentucky district, where voters appreciate his principled stances. He has support from key figures in the America First movement, like Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Lauren Boebert, who rallied with him recently, despite Trump’s threats of a primary challenge, which expired as the filing period closed.
Despite the looming threat, Massie confidently embraces the challenge. “I’m glad he’s in with both feet,” Massie told POLITICO after leaving the Capitol for the campaign trail. “This will be his biggest loss ever as far as endorsements go.”
Following Cassidy’s defeat, Trump labeled Massie the “worst Republican Congressman in History” on Truth Social. Massie countered on ABC, asserting his lead and calling his opponents “desperate.”
Massie seeks to persuade voters they can support both him and Trump by arguing he aligns with the president “nearly all of the time.” He attributes disagreements—such as on the Epstein files, spending, and foreign interventions—to shifts in the administration’s core values, not his own.
“Massie’s sitting to the right of Trump, and Trump’s never really tried to take out somebody who’s to the right of him before,” commented Tres Watson, a GOP strategist from Kentucky not affiliated with either campaign.
Massie’s opposition to interventions in Iran and longstanding resistance to U.S. aid to Israel have sparked a debate over what “America First” means, as some Republicans, especially younger ones, diverge on Middle Eastern conflicts.
“This is a congressional race, but it’s also somewhat of a national movement, and it would be bad for Republicans’ prospects in the midterms if I lose,” Massie said. “Not just because they’ve wasted $10 million of Republican mega donor money on a seat that’s going to be red anyway. It’s going to be because those people will be like ‘why am I even voting Republican?’ … they’ll stay home.”
A victory on Tuesday, Massie claimed, would provide him “antibodies” against the president’s political machine. Demonstrating that resisting Trump’s influence is feasible may serve as a model for other Republicans who challenge the president, although few remain in Congress.
A loss for Massie, especially after Cassidy’s defeat, would underscore a looming issue for the GOP: diminishing space for dissent within the party, even as Trump progresses through his presidency.
“There used to be room for effective, mild-mannered wonkish types because they got stuff done and industry and voters appreciated it,” noted a Republican strategist involved in the Alabama Senate race for a Moore opponent. “Now it’s just different.”
