Moderate Democrats are voicing concern after significant defeats in New York’s primaries, fearing they are on the brink of losing the party’s ideological battle, which could impact its electoral prospects.
Progressive candidates achieved a clean sweep of three solidly Democratic House seats in New York City, a significant triumph that resulted in the ousting of two incumbents, including the influential chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Following a series of progressive victories in earlier primaries, moderates have expressed concerns that the left’s success may just be beginning.
The progressive faction is targeting even larger objectives in key battleground primaries that will influence control of Congress and governorships in pivotal swing states. Moderates are particularly worried that a series of progressive primary victories could jeopardize the party’s chances of defeating Republicans this fall.
Additionally, moderates are concerned that as progressives continue to win, they are moving closer to the mainstream, thereby reshaping the Democratic Party.
“Centrist Democrats, normie Democrats, need to realize we’re the insurgents, and they’re the new establishment,” remarked Liam Kerr, a co-founder of the moderate-aligned WelcomePAC. “It’s a long-term structural problem more than it is any one particular win.”
Progressives have dominated the Democrats’ spring primaries, securing a series of victories in both safe and competitive districts, disrupting House and Senate Democrats’ strategies. Candidates like Randy Villegas and Matt Dunlap defeated the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s preferred choices in battlegrounds in California and Maine. Meanwhile, populist insurgent Graham Platner displaced Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s chosen recruit in Maine, Gov. Janet Mills, before voting even began, although his poll numbers declined due to personal scandals.
With New York’s results behind, upcoming races in Colorado, Michigan, and Wisconsin will test whether the progressive movement can maintain its momentum.
“It’s happening in New York, it’s happening in Michigan. I think we’re seeing it happen across the country now, that folks are sick and tired of being sick and tired,” stated Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and engaged in a contentious three-way primary. “So, certainly we’re going to harness that.”
Colorado is first, where Democratic Socialist Melat Kiros is presenting a strong challenge to long-serving Democratic incumbent Diana DeGette in a secure seat. In the state’s contested 8th District, progressive-leaning Manny Rutinel is up against establishment-backed Shannon Bird. The winner will face freshman GOP Rep. Gabe Evans.
Even if these progressive candidates do not succeed, establishment Democrats worry that President Donald Trump and the GOP will effectively associate their centrist nominees with the party’s most radical members, forcing them to address progressives’ controversial remarks and positions, such as defunding the police or abolishing prisons entirely.
“These races might have some impact on 2026 if Republicans weaponize the craziest ideas of these candidates against mainstream Democrats running in blue districts,” noted Matt Bennett, a co-founder of the moderate think tank Third Way.
The Blue Dogs, a centrist coalition of House Democrats and campaign allies, share these concerns.
Phil Gardner of Blue Dog Action emphasized the necessity for moderate Democrats in swing districts to confront Republican attacks directly and distance themselves from the left wing of their party.
“The reason they do that is because it works,” Gardner explained regarding GOP efforts to link moderates to progressives. “Candidates running in these competitive seats should not rely on just anti-Trump sentiment or the Democratic brand, because you’re basically putting your destiny in the hands of forces far outside your control.”
Some on the left are growing increasingly frustrated as the establishment marginalizes them.
“Having party leaders not make the newest and most exciting members of the party feel like they belong is counterproductive for a party that wants to keep growing,” said progressive strategist Rebecca Katz, whose firm Fight Agency collaborates with El-Sayed and Platner, among others.
Nevertheless, establishment Democrats are racing to secure primary victories in critical battlegrounds. In Michigan, where El-Sayed is leading in new polls, establishment Democrats are spending millions to support Rep. Haley Stevens and counter El-Sayed’s rise. Additional support is also arriving for El-Sayed.
In Wisconsin, another key battleground with significant races, panic over democratic socialist state Rep. Francesca Hong’s momentum in the crowded gubernatorial primary has led some in the party to rally around moderate Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez. One Democrat even withdrew and endorsed Rodriguez to consolidate the center-left vote.
“True leadership means stepping aside and making sure that we coalesce around someone who can win in November,” Democrat Missy Hughes declared at a press conference shortly after suspending her campaign.
In an interview, Hong expressed that the centrist approach is no longer effective.
“I agree, we should coalesce around a leader that can win in November. And I think that I’m that leader,” Hong told POLITICO. “The strategy of running moderates — we’ve lost the House, the Senate and the executive office. … Using the old playbook and looking at the results, I would hope that the course correction is to run some different plays.” However, Republicans are eager to exploit Hong’s past hardline positions and statements, including calls to defund the police. She has attempted to address these concerns, stating: “there’s no way I’m going to cut public safety, I want to deliver it,” she said in a recent video.
While leftist wins in secure seats are prominent, there have been several victories for centrists in other Democratic primaries in key battlegrounds. The Democratic establishment’s candidate triumphed in the New York battleground seat to face GOP Rep. Mike Lawler, and moderate Rebecca Bennett won the primary to challenge GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr. in a crucial New Jersey battleground. Some moderate wins occurred even as GOP groups sought to boost left-leaning candidates in Texas and Nebraska.
In Senate races, moderate candidates like Roy Cooper in North Carolina ran unopposed. Texas’ James Talarico and Iowa’s Josh Turek overcame their more-progressive rivals.
“In most of the flippable seats, you still do have electable Democrats, either winning the primaries, or there was just never really a primary to begin with, and people sort of coalesced,” Gardner noted.
Schumer told reporters that every faction within the Democratic Party is gaining momentum.
“You’re seeing centrist energy in Virginia, Iowa, and New Jersey, progressive energy in New York City,” Schumer said. “We’re going to harness it all to win in November. Because all Democrats are united in the mission of taking back the Senate and defeating Trump.”
Following their victories, some progressives quickly called for unity and pledged support for moderate colleagues this fall.
“I’m going to go help some frontliners win their races,” said Brad Lander, who defeated Rep. Dan Goldman by over 30 points. “I hope some moderates will come help Randy Villegas and other progressives win theirs.”
The possibility of progressives capturing a battleground seat in November carries significant implications for the party’s direction.
“We love the statistic that [progressives have] never flipped any seats. We love to say, ‘look at the polling,” said Kerr, the co-founder of the centrist WelcomePAC. “But we haven’t been scared enough. We’ve been high on our own supply of data while they’ve been organizing.”
Beyond this year’s midterms, a larger contest looms in 2028, where an open presidential primary will shape the party’s future.
“It is vital that Democrats do not mistake the radicalism of a very small electorate in very blue places with the desire of the larger Democratic Party to move sharply to the left,” Bennett said. “Those things are not the same, and Democrats running for president must resist the urge to believe what they see on social media and the siren song of the DSA and the activist left.”
