Moderate Democrats Make Strides Amid Party Fractures
Moderate Democrats are experiencing a notable resurgence.
In the heart of conservative territory, centrist candidates are flipping seats and coming alarmingly close in special elections throughout deep red Iowa. Rahm Emanuel, the former mastermind behind a House takeover by Blue Dog Democrats, has his sights set on a presidential bid for 2028. Meanwhile, influential Democrats like Gavin Newsom and Chuck Schumer are steering away from the progressive wing — with Newsom taking a stand against trans athletes participating in women’s sports, and Schumer distancing himself from radical left demands to shut down the government.
“Moderates are having their moment,” observed Jonathan Kott, once a senior adviser to the centrist former Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia. “People are starting to see that our 2024 losses stemmed from a multitude of factors, but pandering to every liberal group and fighting over issues affecting just 1 or 2 percent of the electorate was a strategic misstep.”
Recent public opinion polls reveal that the Democratic Party is grappling with a significant image crisis. An NBC News survey indicated that over half of independents view the party unfavorably — only 11 percent of independents hold a positive view of Democrats. This discontent appears to be prompting Democrats to pivot in a bid to reconnect with these voters.
Internal polling reflects this shift toward moderation. A recent survey conducted by Navigator Research in key congressional battlegrounds found that a substantial 69 percent of voters believe Democrats are “too focused on being politically correct,” while 51 percent described the party as “elitist.”
“This is a reaction to the drastic leftward shift we saw post-Trump’s 2016 victory, particularly after the murder of George Floyd,” remarked Matt Bennett, vice president of the centrist group Third Way. This organization has been vocal about limiting “far-left candidate questionnaires,” criticizing the disproportionate influence of progressive staffers and groups on policy and messaging, and urging accountability for the failures of Democratic governance in major cities.
However, the party’s progressive and activist factions are not simply stepping aside. Populist icon Bernie Sanders is drawing substantial crowds in the Midwest, liberal activists are rallying against significant budget cuts, and progressives are threatening primary challenges against figures like Schumer.
Yet, the centrist movement is showing signs of quiet but significant progress. Far from the political chaos of Washington, moderate Democrats are gaining traction in state-level elections, particularly in districts that were recently captured by Trump.
In a recent Iowa state House special election, the Democratic candidate, despite ultimately losing, outperformed Kamala Harris by an impressive 24 points. This strong showing by Nannette Griffin followed the party’s success in flipping a state Senate seat in Iowa and reinforcing legislative majorities in Virginia. Such victories bolster the argument among centrists that, in the Trump era, Democrats can engage voters with straightforward messaging focused on everyday economic concerns.
The Iowa results are part of a broader trend, as Democrats experience a series of successes in state legislative special elections this year, which the party is highlighting as indicators of enthusiasm ahead of the midterms.
“There’s a renewed energy within the Democrats across the state,” noted Senator Mike Zimmer, who recently secured a GOP seat in rural Eastern Iowa that Trump had won by 21 points. “If we unite and have a solid plan, we can be far more competitive.”
This trend isn’t limited to Iowa. Democrats are capitalizing on federal job losses as a campaign issue in upcoming Pennsylvania special elections, emphasizing a more economically focused message rather than an ideological one.
In one state Senate district, where federal workers have faced furloughs, local sentiments reflect frustration over how the situation is being handled. “Many feel it’s not being managed well, and there’s a sense of chaos,” said James Malone, the Democratic mayor of East Petersburg, Pennsylvania, who aims to flip a GOP district.
“As chaos reigns in Washington, Democrats have significant opportunities to counter the MAGA agenda through state legislative special elections,” stated Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which is dedicated to electing Democrats to state legislatures.
The political ramifications for leaders like Schumer or Newsom remain uncertain. Furthermore, the outcomes of a few special elections do not necessarily predict a Democratic resurgence in Iowa, where historically, the party has enjoyed success in areas populated by blue-collar workers. Nevertheless, Republicans continue to hold a strong grip on power in the state.
“These special elections can often be misleading and don’t always serve as reliable indicators that some might hope for,” cautioned GOP strategist Tyler Campbell.
Even so, Democrats seem poised for a comeback, convinced that a focus on economic messaging, coupled with a critique of Elon Musk’s aggressive government cuts, might resonate across the nation.
“The energy is palpable,” asserted Iowa State Representative JD Scholten. “Our base is fired up because we’re outraged by what’s happening. We perceive this as a national trend – people are fed up with the chaos in D.C. and are eager to take action.”
In Washington, Schumer has notably shifted leftward since his days as an “angry centrist,” facing criticism not only from progressives but from various factions within the party. His recent vote represented a clear rejection of the protest politics favored by the party’s activist base.
“We must confront the reality that young people, working-class individuals, and people of color — the backbone of the Democratic Party — are drifting away,” commented Stevie O’Hanlon, political director of the Sunrise Movement.
O’Hanlon added, “I believe Chuck Schumer is part of that problem.”
Yet, for some within the party, provoking the left may be part of the strategy. By challenging party orthodoxy on issues like trans rights, Newsom aligns himself with Emanuel in a move toward moderation, declaring he is “done with discussions about locker rooms” and “done with bathroom debates,” and instead wants to focus on “conversations about the classroom.”
This shift aligns with a broader cultural retrenchment that pragmatic voices within the party are fervently advocating.
“There has been a significant cultural and political shift, some of which has been beneficial, but some may have gone too far,” said Bennett from Third Way. “What we witnessed in 2024 was voters expressing concern that the Democratic Party’s leftward trajectory was not appropriately calibrated and had overstepped in numerous areas.”
Emily Ngo contributed to this report.
