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American Focus > Blog > Politics > China Uses Tariff War as a Smokescreen to Make Its Move in the Civil Airline Market |
Politics

China Uses Tariff War as a Smokescreen to Make Its Move in the Civil Airline Market |

Last updated: May 20, 2025 6:51 am
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China Uses Tariff War as a Smokescreen to Make Its Move in the Civil Airline Market |
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Aviation Week has reported on an intriguing development: the first of the Boeing 737 MAX jets has made its way back to China, adorned in the colors of Xiamen Airlines, landing in Seattle on April 20. Another aircraft is also being readied for the same airline. This move comes at a time when the top three Chinese carriers—Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines—are poised to receive a total of 179 Boeing planes from 2025 to 2027. The backdrop of this situation includes U.S. tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump, ostensibly to counterbalance international tariffs on U.S. products, which many analysts argue have influenced China’s sudden shift in dealings with Boeing.

Tariffs: The Catalyst for China’s Aircraft Ambitions

However, this pivot seems less like a spontaneous decision and more like a meticulously orchestrated act of brinksmanship. China’s actions have been a long time brewing, as it seeks to unveil its ambitious plans for a substantial entry into the aircraft market, aiming to challenge the Boeing-Airbus duopoly.

In July 2024, The Epoch Times highlighted that Boeing and Airbus find themselves squarely in the sights of China’s economic takeover strategy. Dubai Aerospace Enterprise, the world’s second-largest aircraft lessor, anticipates that 2024 will mark a significant milestone for the Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China (Comac). For years, Comac has been refining its offerings to compete directly with Boeing’s 737 and Airbus’s A320. It has secured two substantial orders totaling 200 aircraft from Chinese airlines, slated for delivery over the next several years, culminating in 2031. While multiple Boeing and Airbus aircraft remain on backorder, these recent orders signify an important first for Comac.

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A critical note of caution has been sounded by the U.S. Department of Defense, which has officially classified Comac as a Chinese military entity. This designation suggests that Comac operates under a “civil-military fusion” model, effectively serving the strategic objectives of the Chinese Communist Party.
Interestingly, even prior to the recent tariff tensions, the South China Morning Post reported on March 25 that Comac was already ramping up its production capabilities. The article noted that Comac intended to boost its output of the C919—China’s first domestically produced narrowbody jet—by 50% this year. According to information shared at a conference in Xian, Comac plans to increase its production capacity to 75 aircraft, up from the previously announced 50.

Clearly, China has been preparing its entry into the competitive aviation arena long before the current tariff disputes.

The Certification Challenge: A Hurdle for Comac

A significant obstacle for Comac remains the arduous process of obtaining certification from Western authorities. The required transparency and oversight in the certification process, which Comac may be reluctant to fully embrace, has led to delays in the evaluation of the C919 and other models by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). Steven Udvar-Hazy, executive chairman of Air Lease, has publicly expressed skepticism about the C919’s prospects, stating that he doubts the FAA and EASA will certify it in its current form for export.

Complicating matters is the intricate web of relationships involving Comac and Boeing. For instance, the Alenia facility near Naples, Italy, contributes approximately “14% of the 787’s airframe,” and interestingly, this facility is linked to both Chinese and Russian interests, creating an uneasy intersection with Boeing’s operations.
In a move emblematic of their collaboration, on October 26, 2018, Comac signed a deal with Leonardo (the parent company of Alenia) to develop the CR929, effectively a counterpart to the Boeing 737. However, this project has also seen Comac enter into a joint venture with Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation, complicating the narrative further, as the CR929 is essentially a product of the China-Russia Commercial Aircraft International Corporation (CRAIC). Given the current geopolitical climate, the intertwining interests of Boeing, Alenia, Comac, and CRAIC raise significant concerns.

Can Comac Thrive in a BRICS-Dominated Market?

Ultimately, Comac’s path to success in the Western markets appears fraught with challenges, particularly regarding certification. The pressing question now is whether there is enough demand within countries aligned with China—such as Russia, North Korea, Iran, Venezuela, and South Africa—to sustain and legitimize Comac’s challenge to the established giants of Boeing and Airbus. Perhaps.

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Airbus and Boeing’s current success is nothing short of remarkable. There exists an almost 11-year wait time for Airbus and Boeing aircraft, with Airbus holding orders for approximately 8,700 aircraft and Boeing for around 6,300. Although Boeing has encountered its share of hurdles, it appears to be on a recovery trajectory. Thus, the loss of Chinese orders may not significantly impact the overall backlog.

This success could incentivize nations aligned with China to consider the non-Western certified Comac aircraft. While these planes may be relegated to flights between China-aligned nations, for countries that choose to ally with China, this may indeed suffice.

All viewpoints expressed are personal and do not reflect the viewpoints of any organization.

TAGGED:airlineChinaCivilmarketMoveSmokescreenTariffWar
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