However, what I’m trying to show in my book is that climate change can act as a kind of confounding factor that makes it harder for people to make clear-headed decisions. In the Sahel, for example, where the distinction between herders and farmers has been a somewhat artificial one for centuries, the fact that the Sahara is slowly but surely encroaching on the arable lands that these communities have relied on has led to a kind of existential crisis. Suddenly, the pasturelands that have sustained generations of animals are disappearing, and farmers are having to compete for ever-diminishing resources. In this context, it’s easy for old tensions to flare up and for disputes to escalate into violence.
Do you see a potential for climate-change-related violence to spread to wealthier, Western countries?
Absolutely. In fact, I would argue that we’re already seeing the effects of climate change on violence in wealthier countries. Take the recent wildfires in California, for example. The increasing frequency and intensity of these fires can be directly linked to climate change, and the destruction they cause can lead to all kinds of conflict—whether it’s disputes over insurance payouts, fights over resources, or even violence within communities. And let’s not forget the impact of climate change on migration patterns. As sea levels rise and extreme weather events become more common, we can expect to see more and more people displaced from their homes. This kind of forced migration can easily lead to tension and conflict, even in countries that have traditionally been seen as stable and prosperous.
Ultimately, what I hope to show in my book is that climate change is not just an environmental issue—it’s a human issue, a political issue, and a security issue. If we don’t start taking it seriously and addressing its root causes, we could be facing a future filled with even more violence, conflict, and suffering.
As I return to the villages and speak to the friends and relatives of those affected by climate change, I can’t help but feel that there is some truth to their stories. The idea that small conflicts can escalate and have far-reaching consequences is a central theme in the book. This is not surprising given the interconnected nature of our world. Climate change affects agricultural professions the most, leading to instability in rural areas. However, this instability does not remain contained in these areas, as migration to urban centers can exacerbate the crisis.
On an international level, the actions of one country in response to climate change can have negative repercussions on another, leading to poverty and conflict. While it may seem logical to focus on poorer countries in Africa that bear the brunt of climate change, it is important to consider how climate-related violence can also manifest in wealthier countries like those in North America and Europe.
In Western countries, extreme heat has been linked to an increase in various forms of crime and violence. For example, in Athens, Greece, organizations have reported a significant rise in domestic violence during the summer months. Similarly, the frequency of shootings in the U.S. tends to increase during less hospitable climate conditions. Moreover, violence against migrants in Europe can be seen as a response to how governments handle climate-related challenges across borders.
In addition to climate-related instability, other factors contribute to conflict, such as inequality. Areas where affluence meets deprivation often experience heightened levels of crime and tension. Instances of private firefighting units in California or wealthy communities redirecting coastal erosion towards poorer communities highlight the potential for future conflicts based on disparities in resources and responses.
Despite the grim outlook, there is hope in environmental peacebuilding. This approach uses climate concerns as a way to foster conflict resolution and collaboration. While some may view this as a last resort due to the failure of traditional peacebuilding methods, there is genuine excitement around the potential of environmental peacebuilding on a local level. By recognizing that environmental issues require cooperation and are not zero-sum, there is a chance to prevent and mitigate violence. It is a promising prospect that is worth keeping an eye on in the future.
