CNN’s senior political data reporter Harry Enten recently discussed the potential for pollsters to once again underestimate Republican candidate Donald Trump’s chances in the 2024 election, as they did in 2016 and 2020. In an interview with “News Central” anchor John Berman, Enten emphasized the historical improbability of a party consistently outperforming polls in three consecutive presidential election cycles, especially in key battleground states. According to Enten, such a scenario has never occurred since 1972.
Despite acknowledging Trump’s unconventional political trajectory, Enten pointed out that pollsters typically adjust their methodologies to account for any discrepancies in the electorate’s behavior, thereby minimizing the likelihood of repeated underestimations of the same party. This adaptability, he argued, has prevented a situation where a party is consistently undervalued in presidential elections over the past five decades.
For those interested in learning more about Enten’s analysis, the video of his discussion can be viewed above.
