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American Focus > Blog > Environment > COP30’s biofuel gamble could cost the global food supply — and the planet
Environment

COP30’s biofuel gamble could cost the global food supply — and the planet

Last updated: November 21, 2025 4:30 pm
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COP30’s biofuel gamble could cost the global food supply — and the planet
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The process of creating biofuels involves several steps, starting with the harvesting, shredding, and crushing of plant stalks. The juice extracted from this process is then combined with bacteria and yeast in large bioreactors, where sugars are metabolized and converted into ethanol and carbon dioxide. Afterward, the liquid is typically distilled to increase ethanol concentration before being blended with gasoline.

Biofuels, primarily made from food crops like sugarcane and corn, have gained popularity as greener, more sustainable alternatives to traditional petrol. However, the debate over their environmental impact and food accessibility continues to be a topic of contention. Despite this, the governments of Brazil, Italy, Japan, and India are leading a new pledge at COP30 in Belem, Brazil, advocating for the global expansion of biofuels to decarbonize transportation energy.

The pledge aims to quadruple the use of sustainable fuels by 2035, covering 10 percent of global road transport demand, 15 percent of aviation demand, and 35 percent of shipping fuel demand. As of now, at least 23 countries have joined the pledge, with Brazilian delegates actively promoting biofuels in the summit discussions.

While biofuels have the potential to reduce carbon emissions, there are concerns about their environmental impact. The production of biofuels often leads to deforestation, as farmers clear land to grow crops for fuel production. This deforestation can release more carbon into the atmosphere than burning biofuels saves. Researchers and activists question the sustainability of scaling up biofuel production, as it requires vast amounts of land, water, and energy.

A recent analysis found that biofuels globally emit 16 percent more CO2 than the fossil fuels they replace, due to indirect impacts on farming and land use. By 2030, biofuel crops could require land equivalent to the size of France, raising concerns about ecosystem loss and deforestation. Issues such as water pollution, air pollution, and soil erosion are also associated with converting food crops into biofuels.

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As countries transition away from fossil fuels, it is crucial to consider the environmental consequences of expanding biofuel production. Without proper safeguards in place, the rapid growth of biofuels could have detrimental effects on the world’s land and ecosystems. It is essential to balance the benefits of biofuels with their potential environmental impacts to ensure a sustainable energy future.

The consequences of prioritizing biofuel production are clear: it requires more energy input than it creates, leading to a net loss in energy efficiency. This means that the environmental benefits of using biofuels as a renewable energy source are not as significant as previously thought. The study conducted a decade ago shed light on the hidden costs of biofuel production, emphasizing the need for a more comprehensive approach to assessing the sustainability of alternative fuel sources.

Brazil’s ambitious goals for increasing biofuel production may have unintended consequences, especially when it comes to land use and food security. As biofuel production expands, it can lead to intensification of agriculture on existing cropland or the conversion of natural habitats into agricultural land. Both scenarios have negative environmental impacts, including deforestation, habitat loss, and increased greenhouse gas emissions.

The reliance on biofuels as a solution to reducing carbon emissions may not be the most effective strategy. Instead, a holistic approach that considers the full life cycle of biofuel production, from cultivation to consumption, is necessary to accurately assess its environmental impact. This includes accounting for all direct and indirect emissions associated with biofuel production and distribution.

In conclusion, while biofuels have been touted as a cleaner alternative to fossil fuels, the reality is more complex. The energy input required to produce biofuels often outweighs the energy output, making them less efficient than originally believed. As countries like Brazil push for increased biofuel production, it is essential to consider the broader environmental and social implications of this shift towards renewable energy sources.

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The carbon intensity of corn ethanol produced under the mandate has ended up at least equaling the planet-polluting effects of gasoline, according to recent research. This finding raises concerns about the environmental impact of biofuel mandates and their potential consequences on food production and prices.

Ginni Braich, a data scientist at the University of Colorado Boulder and a senior advisor to government clean technology programs, highlights the detrimental effects of biofuel mandates on food crops. These mandates create a baseline demand for biofuels, which can lead to increased competition for feedstocks and drive up the prices of food, feed, and farming inputs. In times of crop failures or adverse weather conditions, the inelastic demand for biofuels must still be met, even if it means depleting food stocks.

The supply-demand dynamics of biofuel mandates also have implications for food accessibility and dietary diversity. As more land is dedicated to growing biofuel feedstocks, less area is available for food crops, leading to supply shortages and higher prices for essential food items. This shift in cropping patterns can affect dietary diversity and nutritional intake, further exacerbating food insecurity.

Braich warns that the Belém pledge, which advocates for the expansion of the biofuels market, may have adverse effects on both food production and the environment. Brazil’s efforts to promote biofuels as a sustainable energy source while also being a protector of forests raise questions about the true motives behind these initiatives. While biofuels may offer some benefits in terms of decarbonization and reducing reliance on fossil fuels, the potential negative impacts on food security and environmental sustainability cannot be overlooked.

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In conclusion, the carbon intensity of corn ethanol produced under biofuel mandates raises concerns about the overall sustainability of such policies. Balancing the need for renewable energy sources with the potential consequences on food production, prices, and environmental degradation is crucial for ensuring a more sustainable future. It is essential to consider the long-term implications of biofuel mandates and prioritize solutions that promote both environmental protection and food security.

TAGGED:BiofuelCOP30sCostFoodgambleglobalPlanetSupply
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