Cornyn did so well that Trump could finally endorse him

Sen. John Cornyn Surprises in Texas GOP Primary, Trump’s Support in Question

In a turn of events that has left many political analysts raising their eyebrows, Senator John Cornyn has delivered a performance in the Texas GOP primary that defies expectations. National Republican leaders are now cautiously optimistic, believing that his unexpectedly robust showing could pave the way for President Donald Trump to endorse the beleaguered incumbent.

According to a GOP strategist speaking on the condition of anonymity, Trump has hinted at his potential involvement in the Texas Senate race after months of turning down endorsement requests from both Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a long-time Trump ally. Party leaders had been particularly concerned that Trump might favor Paxton, especially if he had dominated the primary results—an outcome that was far from guaranteed.

However, the results revealed a tight race between Cornyn and Paxton, causing the strategist to suggest that it would now be “very surprising” if Trump chose to endorse Paxton.

The stakes for Republicans could not be higher, as they brace for a battle that could determine control of the Senate. The GOP had hoped to sideline state Representative James Talarico from the Democratic nomination, viewing him as a potential magnet for moderate Republican voters.

“Republicans should take him seriously,” remarked another Trump ally, who also requested anonymity to speak candidly. Talarico is seen as a “significant reason for Trump to back Cornyn and wrap this up,” particularly given the need to redirect substantial campaign funds to more competitive Senate races in states like Michigan and Georgia.

The financial outlay for Cornyn’s protection in the runoff is estimated to reach around $200 million. Yet, the GOP strategist dismissed concerns about the expense, stating matter-of-factly, “Look, it will probably cost some money. It’s just money; we have a lot of it.”

Tuesdays’ results epitomize the best-case scenario for establishment Republicans, who feared that Cornyn might fall significantly behind Paxton, complicating any potential endorsement from a president reluctant to support a losing candidate.

The Texas GOP Senate primary has morphed into a referendum on the Republican Party’s future, testing the resilience of the conservative grassroots against the more traditional establishment wing. While the MAGA base prevented the four-term senator—who nearly ascended to the role of Senate majority leader—from securing a majority of primary votes, the results suggest the establishment isn’t quite on its deathbed yet.

Cornyn’s narrow edge over Paxton was attributed to a balanced performance statewide. In counties where Paxton would have expected a stronghold, the incumbent senator held his ground. Across over 110 predominantly rural counties, where Trump clinched victories by at least 50 points in 2024, Paxton managed only a slim lead: 44 percent to just under 40 percent for Cornyn.

Meanwhile, Cornyn fortified his standing in the more traditional white-collar suburbs, racking up double-digit leads in areas such as Travis and Dallas counties as results continued to flow in.

Speaking to reporters on election night in Austin, Cornyn asserted that the Republican voters’ choice is “crystal clear.”

“I refuse to allow a flawed, self-centered, and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton risk everything we’ve built over these many years,” he declared. “There is simply too much at stake.”

Republicans are acutely aware that the overall control of the Senate hangs in the balance. Allies of Cornyn caution that Paxton’s scandal-ridden history could alienate general election voters, particularly if Talarico emerges as the Democratic candidate.

During his tenure as attorney general, Paxton has faced impeachment proceedings initiated by the GOP-controlled Texas House, ethics complaints, a federal securities fraud investigation, and a recent divorce fraught with allegations of infidelity.

Now, Paxton is set to endure another 12 weeks under the scrutiny and financial might of the Washington establishment.

“John Cornyn spent around $100 million trying to buy this seat,” Paxton asserted to supporters at a watch party following the race’s conclusion. “We spent around $5 million… We prove something they’ll never understand in Washington: Texas is not for sale.”

A lingering question remains: which candidate will voters who backed Rep. Wesley Hunt—who finished a distant third—support in the runoff, or will they turn out at all?

Lone Star Liberty, a super PAC backing Paxton, circulated a memo prior to Tuesday’s election, downplaying concerns that Cornyn would gain traction in the runoff by continuously attacking the attorney general over his scandals. They argued there was nothing new to offer.

“Cornyn’s talk of ‘unleashing’ new attacks in the runoff is bluster,” the memo stated. “The truth is that from day one, his forces fired every bullet they had. There are no new attacks left—only more of the same, at ever-greater cost and with ever-diminishing returns.”

Republican operatives, who anticipated a runoff yet remained uncertain about Cornyn’s performance against Paxton, expressed relief as the incumbent maintained a narrow lead throughout the night.

A Republican involved in Senate campaigns, also choosing to remain anonymous, remarked that Cornyn “proved to be formidable” on Tuesday, reinforcing the establishment GOP’s argument that he is “the most electable” candidate as the party prepares for a showdown against Talarico.

“Talarico’s lead reaffirms the need to have Cornyn as the nominee. We can’t risk this to Paxton,” the GOP operative added.

Nonetheless, some Republicans acknowledged that Cornyn faces a challenging path ahead. He must contend with the conservative primary voters who are integral to Paxton’s base.

“Runoffs are extremely unpredictable, and head-to-head, it could be anyone’s ballgame,” cautioned Republican strategist Jeff Burton.

Dasha Burns, Lisa Kashinsky, Alec Hernandez, Jessica Piper, and Erin Doherty contributed reporting.