Could the Carrington Event happen again?

The Carrington Event of 1859: A Solar Storm for the Ages

On a hot and humid Florida night in late August 1859, the sky suddenly lit up. But it was not from fireflies or a fireswamp. Instead, it was the Northern Lights–or aurora borealis. The aurora is usually seen in far more northern latitudes, but it had somehow reached the subtropics and danced across the night sky. Reports of the aurora came in from as far south as Central America and some in the Rocky Mountains even believed it was morning because the sky was so bright.

Across the Atlantic Ocean in England, a wealthy amateur astronomer named Richard Carrington was also watching the cosmos. However, Carrington had his eyes on the Sun and its various sunspots and solar flares.

“Sunspots are there all the time, almost. You can see them with a small telescope,” University of Glasgow astrophysicist Hugh Hudson tells Popular Science. “Carrington was sketching the spots’ areas and recording them. He noticed at a certain point that there were two bright patches of light that appeared in the sunspot group, which ought not to have been there.”

What Carrington and the awestruck people of the subtropical Atlantic saw were related. The aurora was a result of the most intense solar storm in recorded history, now called the Carrington Event. These solar storms can send out large clouds of electrified gas and dust at up to two million miles per hour. If and when these particles reach Earth, it can disrupt and distort Earth’s magnetic field.

The Carrington Event was so large that these particles interacting with Earth’s magnetic field impacted telecommunications.

“There were sparks that were so intense that the wires caught fire, in some places,” says Hudson. “Some of the telegraph operators were shocked and burnt. When you connect the long wires together for power distribution, you’re asking for trouble when surges like that happen.”

Engineers have since learned a great deal about how to handle those large wires since the Carrington Event. However, our reliance on electricity has only grown exponentially. A flare of similar–or even greater like Miyake Events–magnitude still could happen and the effects are of major interest to sci-fi aficionados and scientists alike. With so much more technology at risk than just the telegraph wires of the Nineteenth Century, the effects could be catastrophic.

“In a world that is now so dependent on electricity and electronics, a similar event has the potential to cause widespread disruptions and damage to the electronics aboard Earth-orbiting satellites, ground-based electronics, and the power grid,” Alex Gianninas, an astrophysicist at Connecticut College tells Popular Science.

Our in-space infrastructure, such as, telecommunication satellites are also particularly vulnerable to the Sun’s coronal mass ejections (CME). CMEs are large eruptions at the surface of the Sun that shoot charge particles out into space. All of that energy from the particles can degrade solar panels, damage navigation systems, and alter orbital paths, potentially causing mass collisions and excess space debris.

While there is constant activity happening on the surface of the Sun, there are generally more low intensity flares than higher intensity ones. The sunspot activity that creates these storms and flares also rises and falls on a roughly 11-year cycle. This year, we are heading into the maximum level of this cycle. Solar storms are a natural occurrence that can have significant impacts on Earth’s technological infrastructure. These storms are most likely to occur during solar maximum, which is a period of heightened solar activity. During this time, there can be several solar storms per day, caused by events such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the sun.

As we currently find ourselves in Solar Cycle 25, experts predict that the maximum of solar activity will occur in the upcoming summer, likely in July. This means that we can expect an increase in the frequency and intensity of geomagnetic storms, which are caused by CMEs. These storms can disrupt satellite communications, power grids, and navigation systems on Earth.

While the chances of a solar storm of the magnitude of the Carrington Event happening in the next century are estimated to be relatively low, at 12 percent or less, it is still a threat that needs to be taken seriously. To monitor solar activity, a network of satellites, including the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), constantly observe the sun and provide valuable data and images.

It can take several hours to a few days for the particles from a CME to reach Earth, giving us some advance warning of an impending solar storm. Organizations like NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center track this activity and provide information on where and when the aurora, a visible effect of solar storms, might be visible. This information is crucial for utility companies, satellite operators, and even the crew aboard the International Space Station to prepare their systems for potential impacts.

For the general public, preparing for a solar storm involves simple steps like charging up devices and ensuring emergency supplies are readily available. Scientists and citizen scientists find studying solar activity fascinating due to the potential implications for understanding the origins of life and the universe. The combination of potential threats and the mysteries of the cosmos make solar storms a captivating subject for researchers and enthusiasts alike. The world of technology is constantly evolving, with new innovations and advancements being made every day. From smartphones to self-driving cars, the possibilities seem endless. One of the most exciting developments in recent years is the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning.

AI and machine learning have the potential to revolutionize the way we live and work. These technologies can analyze vast amounts of data and make predictions and decisions based on that data. This has the potential to greatly improve efficiency and productivity in a wide range of industries.

One of the most promising applications of AI and machine learning is in the field of healthcare. These technologies can be used to analyze patient data and make diagnoses more accurately and quickly than ever before. They can also help doctors and healthcare providers identify patterns and trends in patient data that may not be immediately apparent to the human eye.

In addition to healthcare, AI and machine learning are also being used in fields such as finance, marketing, and transportation. In finance, for example, these technologies can be used to analyze market trends and make investment decisions. In marketing, they can be used to analyze customer data and tailor marketing campaigns to specific demographics. And in transportation, they can be used to improve the efficiency of logistics and supply chain management.

While the potential benefits of AI and machine learning are vast, there are also concerns about the ethical implications of these technologies. For example, there are concerns about the potential for bias in AI algorithms, as well as the potential for these technologies to replace human workers in certain industries.

Overall, the rise of AI and machine learning represents a new frontier in technology. These technologies have the potential to transform the way we live and work, but they also raise important ethical questions that must be addressed. As we continue to explore the possibilities of AI and machine learning, it will be important to proceed with caution and consider the potential implications of these technologies on society as a whole.