Even the media is acknowledging that the U.S. economy is “regaining its swagger” under President Donald J. Trump, and recent economic developments from the past week serve as a testament to this claim.
- For the fifth consecutive month, core inflation has outperformed market expectations—every full month since President Trump took office.
- Since the commencement of Trump’s presidency, core inflation has averaged a mere 2.1%, a rate reminiscent of the first Trump administration, when price stability was the norm and aligned with the Federal Reserve’s target.
- Wholesale prices remained static, falling below market forecasts and highlighting the significant strides made in addressing the inflation challenges that emerged during the Biden administration.
- Industrial production exceeded expectations with a notable increase, indicating a decline in inflation alongside a surge in domestic production.
- Manufacturing output has risen by 1.8% in the first five months of President Trump’s second term, contrasting sharply with a -0.7% contraction in the final five months before his inauguration.
- Since President Trump took office, customs and tariff revenues have reached an impressive $120 billion—marking the first time these collections have surpassed $100 billion in a fiscal year. This includes $7 billion collected in just the last week, contributing to the first budget surplus in June in nearly a decade, as reported here.
- Advance retail sales exceeded expectations in June, reflecting robust consumer confidence and spending, fueled by low inflation and rising wages.
- Consumer sentiment surged in July, once again surpassing market expectations as inflation expectations for the upcoming year dropped significantly.
- Initial claims for unemployment benefits declined for the fifth week in a row, reinforcing the strength of the labor market as indicated by a favorable jobs report.
- In June, both housing starts and permits for new construction increased beyond market expectations, signaling confidence in the housing sector.
