Democrats Set Sights on Republican Strongholds in 2024 Elections
As the political landscape shifts, Democrats are gearing up to venture into traditionally Republican-dominated territories come November. The momentum from last Tuesday’s special elections has ignited a sense of possibility among the party’s strategists. In a week marked by significant Democratic victories in Wisconsin and unexpected overperformance in two deep-red districts of Florida, enthusiasm is bubbling among potential candidates.
“This changes the game. It’s a declaration that we’re not shying away from Trump-heavy districts; we’re ready to challenge them,” asserted Rep. Morgan McGarvey (D-Ky.), co-chair of the party’s recruitment efforts. “We’re witnessing a surge of interest from individuals across the nation eager to step up and serve.”
In Iowa, two state legislators are eyeing a challenge against Rep. Zach Nunn, whose district will likely feel the effects of tariff policies. Meanwhile, candidates in Pennsylvania and Michigan, who have been directly affected by the Trump administration’s policies, are motivated to share their stories on the campaign trail. Additionally, former representatives are contemplating comebacks in pivotal Rust Belt districts.
Democrats are particularly optimistic about at least two Virginia districts, currently held by GOP Reps. Rob Wittman and Jen Kiggans, which may be swayed by backlash against Elon Musk’s cost-cutting initiatives—both districts harbor significant military populations. Notably, Pamela Northam, Virginia’s former first lady, is reportedly being recruited to run for Kiggans’ seat in Hampton Roads, as confirmed by anonymous sources familiar with the discussions.
This renewed energy comes in the wake of a challenging week for Republicans, marked by a plummeting stock market following President Trump’s tariff announcements and ongoing scrutiny surrounding the “Signalgate” controversy. Democrats are keen to capitalize on this turmoil by rallying candidates who are newly emboldened to run for office.
“People are frustrated. If we can harness that energy and translate it into a robust campaign that resonates with voters, I believe we have a shot here in Iowa,” remarked J.D. Scholten, a Democrat contemplating a challenge to Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa). After last week’s elections, he’s now weighing his options in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2015.
Additionally, House Democratic operatives report increasing interest among prospective candidates from the Midwest, specifically Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has identified about 40 additional offensive targets in the House based on the recent electoral margins in Florida.
House Majority PAC, the Democrats’ leading organization focused on congressional races, noted a “tremendous amount of interest and enthusiasm from potential candidates” following last Tuesday’s elections. “In the last 48 hours, there has been a noticeable receptiveness among candidates in districts as red as R+7,” shared a House Democratic recruiter.
Formerly disheartened Democrats are now seriously contemplating their chances of winning back the House majority. Notable figures include former Rep. Andy Levin (D-Mich.), considering a run for the seat currently held by Republican Rep. John James, and Matt Cartwright, another former Democratic House member contemplating a return in his swing district in northeastern Pennsylvania.
Cartwright described the results from Wisconsin as “very heartening,” stating that House Republicans made a significant political miscalculation with a budget blueprint perceived as threatening Medicaid funding, a program crucial for 200,000 residents in his former district.
Among the potential new candidates are individuals with personal narratives shaped by the upheaval of the Trump administration. Ryan Crosswell, a former federal prosecutor who resigned after the Department of Justice moved to dismiss charges against New York Mayor Eric Adams, is considering a challenge against freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie in Pennsylvania. Andrew Lennox, a veteran recently laid off by Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, is contemplating a run for GOP Rep. Tom Barrett’s seat in Michigan, inspired by recent electoral events.
State Sen. Sarah Anthony is also a potential contender against Barrett, while in Des Moines, state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott, an ordained minister, and state Rep. Jennifer Konfrst are both mulling over runs against Nunn. In the Philadelphia suburbs, county commissioner Bob Harvie has launched a bid against Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) following discussions with the DCCC.
While Susan Wild, a former Democratic House member from Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley, has opted out of a run in 2026, she is actively working to ensure a solid Democratic nominee for her old seat. “This week’s election results should spark more interest,” she noted, emphasizing that the political environment is becoming more favorable for Democrats due to factors like Trump’s tariffs. “Candidates are starting to believe that even in tough districts, we can flip seats.”
However, Wild cautioned against overreaching, warning that districts with a Republican plus-10 margin are particularly challenging and should only be pursued under special circumstances. “Getting ahead of ourselves could jeopardize our vulnerable incumbents,” she advised.
In New Jersey, Democrats are eager to oust Republican Rep. Jeff Van Drew, a former Democrat who switched parties in 2019, but they remain focused on securing easier victories first. Michael Suleiman, chair of the Atlantic County Democrats, acknowledged that while Van Drew’s district could be competitive, the party’s top priorities for 2026 lie in protecting freshman Rep. Nellie Pou and defeating GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr., both in very close districts.
Democrats are also assessing the implications of a shift among minority voters towards Trump in the upcoming 2024 election. Latino-majority districts, in particular, have shown Republican gains at the presidential level, even as those voters continued to support Democratic congressional candidates in the recent elections. Democrats are banking on this shift being largely tied to Trump’s personal appeal, while Republicans are optimistic about expanding their influence with Latino voters in down-ballot races.
“Democrats are flailing with no vision, no leader, no message. This is just another desperate attempt from a party in freefall,” commented Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for the House GOP campaign arm. “While they chase fantasies, we’ll continue to expose their disconnect and dominate again in 2026.”
Nonetheless, Democrats involved in the 2018 wave election recall that strong candidates in tough districts were essential to their success. Prominent Democratic nominees like Kendra Horn in Oklahoma and Joe Cunningham in South Carolina managed to turn a favorable political climate into wins in deep-red areas.
Veterans of that cycle assert that recruiting in longshot seats can yield significant dividends. “I’d venture as deep as R-plus-10 at least,” advised Meredith Kelly, the DCCC’s top spokesperson during the 2018 cycle. “Put the surfboards in the water; you never know what the tide might bring.”
Contributions from Madison Fernandez and Elena Schneider were instrumental in this report.
