Democrats spy rare opening in rural America

Democrats have long been accustomed to the sting of defeat in rural America, especially in the face of Donald Trump’s overwhelming support. However, as they prepare for next year’s midterms, they are betting that the very policies Trump championed could provide them the leverage they need to reclaim some ground.

The party is confronted with significant hurdles in agricultural regions that have historically leaned Republican and have shown up in large numbers to support Trump during three election cycles. Over the past year, however, these communities have felt the sharp impact of his tariff strategies, the closure of health care facilities, ongoing inflation, and cuts to public lands programs.

While Trump touts an “A++++++” economy, recent polling from POLITICO and Public First reveals a different sentiment among both Republican and Democratic voters, who largely attribute rising grocery and housing prices to his administration’s decisions.

Rebuilding trust with rural voters is no small task for Democrats. Yet, discussions with over a dozen current and former lawmakers, party officials, and strategists indicate a growing urgency to harness the discontent stemming from Trump’s policies.

The party is shifting from a strategy of wishful thinking to a more grassroots approach in rural areas where they have historically lacked visibility. They are also utilizing dissatisfied farmers in their media campaigns. To retake Congress in the midterms or even contend for the White House in 2028, Democrats don’t necessarily need to dominate rural counties; they merely need to chip away at the margins where Trump has secured vote shares exceeding 80 percent.

“We have a unique opening because of all that’s happening with this administration,” said Rep. Nikki Budzinski (D-Ill.), whose district encompasses significant rural and farming interests. She believes that farmers and rural voters “might be listening in a more unique way than they maybe have ever in the past. And we need to walk through that door.”

Traditionally, Democrats have allocated relatively meager resources—be it in funding, staffing, or advertising—to rural counties outside of swing states. However, after a string of off-year victories last month, House Democrats are launching their first-ever rural outreach initiative, an eight-figure campaign designed to bolster candidate staffing, mobilize voters, and run advertisements focused on the high cost of living.

Even some Republicans acknowledge that the GOP cannot afford to take rural communities for granted. “Right now, the farm community is with [Trump]. I think the thing that Republicans should worry about is enthusiasm, in getting out and actually voting,” remarked Senate Agriculture Committee Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.). “It’s one thing to be supportive; it’s another thing to actually go vote on Election Day.”

Joe Manchin, a former Democratic senator and governor, who successfully won six statewide races in staunchly Republican West Virginia, emphasized the importance of candidates that resonate with rural Americans by addressing key issues—“common sense stuff,” as he put it, like fiscal responsibility and affordability.

For instance, candidates such as Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill secured their gubernatorial victories last month by distancing themselves from the Democratic brand and honing in on rising prices.

“They’re the kind of centrist Democrats you need,” Manchin said. “They’re the only ones who are going to win in these tough areas.”

The Tariff Play

The political schism between urban and rural voters began to take shape in the late 1980s, as post-Carter Democrats adopted policies perceived as harmful to the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. This created fertile ground for Trump’s brand of economic populism, which saw him win a staggering 64 percent of the rural vote in 2024—the highest percentage for any presidential candidate in decades, eclipsing even his own performance in 2016.

“One of the reasons we were in such a negative place with rural voters is we sort of ceded that ground, stopped showing up, stopped talking to these folks, and really relied on the urban centers,” explained Libby Schneider, deputy executive director of the Democratic National Committee. “And we saw how that gamble failed in 2024 when folks in urban centers stayed home.”

Then came April and Trump’s chaotic tariff rollout.

Initially, farmers had tolerated Trump’s tariffs during his first term and even voted for him in 2024. However, with their economic circumstances now more precarious, the tariffs have become increasingly burdensome and widespread. Farmers and businesses have faced significant uncertainty as tariff deadlines came and went, leading to confusion throughout the food supply chain regarding their potential impacts. Rising costs for fertilizer and fuel, combined with dwindling markets for exports like soybeans, have left many farmers disillusioned. Some, including cattle ranchers traditionally aligned with Trump, have publicly distanced themselves from his trade policies, particularly when he suggested importing Argentinian beef to lower food prices.

Although most rural voters are not farmers, agriculture plays a crucial role in the rural economy, making farm policy a primary avenue through which federal policymaking affects these communities. While some voters may support tariffs in theory as a means to revitalize the labor market and secure fairer trade terms for agricultural products, polling indicates that they perceive Trump’s plans as arbitrary and unlikely to fulfill those aims.

A majority of respondents in an October POLITICO poll (53 percent) expressed that they would prefer avoiding tariffs on imports if it meant lower costs for consumers.

Spanberger, the newly elected governor of Virginia, partly attributed her victory to her focus on tariffs and the economic hardships voters were facing, directly linking them to Trump and the Republican Party. She notably outperformed Kamala Harris in 48 of Virginia’s 52 rural localities.

Pumped by Spanberger’s success, national Democrats are making their own strategic moves: Beyond the DCCC’s eight-figure investment aimed at rural voters and voters of color, a caucus of over 100 moderate Democratic lawmakers recently unveiled a policy agenda that includes passing a farm bill, enhancing rural broadband funding, and securing federal support for local food purchases.

White House spokesperson Kush Desai defended the Trump administration’s policies, asserting that “supporting rural Americans has been a key focus,” which is why the administration has sought to leverage tariffs to create new export opportunities for farmers.

The Republican National Committee remains unfazed.

“Rural America won’t suddenly be tricked into thinking elite Democrats stand for their beliefs and values. The DNC spending a few bucks won’t fool rural Americans into thinking Democrats have touched grass,” RNC spokesperson Delanie Bomar remarked.

One Big Beautiful Mess

Trump’s signature tax-and-spending initiative also presents Democrats with another opportunity to contrast their platform against the Republicans. Rural health care centers across the nation have already closed in response to the law’s Medicaid cuts, which disproportionately affect communities where hospitals are scarce and often serve as primary employers. Low-income Americans are discovering they may no longer qualify for federal food assistance, even as the tax benefits heralded by the GOP primarily favor the wealthy.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, who chairs the Democratic Governors Association and represents a deeply conservative state, recently described the law as “a slap in the face to rural America.”

Furthermore, POLITICO’s November poll revealed that voters are increasingly inclined to trust Democrats when it comes to health care policy. More than 40 percent of those surveyed indicated they believed Democrats would be more effective at lowering health care costs for ordinary Americans, compared to just 33 percent who expressed confidence in the GOP.

The Democratic message is “wrapped up and with a nice, tidy bow on it in the Big, Beautiful Bill,” remarked Christopher Borick, a political science professor who runs the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion. “It’s cuts to your health care, it’s cuts to rural hospitals. It’s cuts to SNAP benefits, and it’s just so tidy and neat for Democrats to go there.”

This strategy appears to be gaining traction. In a heavily Republican congressional district in Tennessee, Democrat Aftyn Behn exceeded expectations and outperformed Harris’ 2024 margins in her campaign to unseat GOP Rep. Matt Van Epps this month.

Behn’s campaign ads predominantly addressed affordability and the repercussions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which she controversially dubbed the “one big BS bill.”

This tactic resonated with voters during an off-cycle election and is likely to gain momentum: Americans’ health care premiums are set to surge ahead of the 2026 midterms, following the Republicans’ decision not to extend Covid-era “enhanced” subsidies for Affordable Care Act plans in their recent legislation.

Will History Repeat Itself?

Nonetheless, some political analysts express skepticism about how much ground Democrats can realistically gain in rural America. While the president’s first-term tariff war similarly harmed farmers, their political allegiance to Republicans showed little sign of wavering at that time. In 2024, Democrats employed a strategy akin to the one they are now adopting, arguing that Trump’s proposed policies would elevate living costs and that his tariffs would act as a new tax on the middle class. Yet, they failed to make significant inroads with rural voters, allowing Republicans to maintain a trifecta.

Many voters remain apprehensive about Democrats’ historical support for free trade agreements over the past three decades, which have decimated rural job prospects and facilitated unchecked corporate power, noted Anthony Flaccavento, executive director of the Rural Urban Bridge initiative, a progressive rural organizing group.

“Both parties have really betrayed rural America, but the Republican Party got very, very good at seeing people and expressing solidarity and saying, ‘You’re right to be angry,’” he elaborated.

To regain trust, Democrats like Rep. Shontel Brown of Ohio are emphasizing the importance of showing up and listening. Brown, who comes from a predominantly urban district, embarked on a listening tour to engage directly with farmers across her state and in Florida.

“We’ve lost a lot of trust in rural America, so showing up and listening is half the battle, but then we have to be able to present an alternative,” she stated in a recent interview. “We as Democrats have a real opportunity to make the case for policies that lower costs and make it easier for farmers, families, and the entire food supply chain.”