El Niño events led to crop failures in some parts of Europe and raised grain prices elsewhere
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The El Niño weather phenomenon, known for influencing climate and economies in regions around the Pacific Ocean, has also been linked to famines in Europe during the period from 1500 to 1800.
El Niño occurs when ocean waters in the central and eastern Pacific become warmer, disrupting trade winds and altering rainfall patterns globally. Its counterpart, La Niña, occurs when these waters cool, collectively known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
While El Niño primarily impacts tropical and subtropical regions, such as Australasia and the Americas, a recent study by Emile Esmaili and colleagues from Columbia University reveals its significant effects on Europe during the early modern period.
The researchers analyzed 160 European famines and correlated them with El Niño and La Niña occurrences based on tree ring data. They found that over 40% of famine onsets in central Europe during this era were associated with El Niño events.
El Niño’s influence on European climate led to increased rainfall, potentially causing soil moisture imbalances and subsequent crop failures. Additionally, El Niño events raised food prices across the continent, contributing to prolonged periods of famine.
David Ubilava from the University of Sydney notes that while ENSO events can still impact food security in regions like South Asia and Africa today, Europe’s improved agricultural practices, advanced forecasting technologies, and integrated markets mitigate the severe effects seen in the past.
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