Electric vehicle (EV) sales in China and Europe have hit a significant milestone, marking an irreversible move away from petrol and diesel-powered vehicles.
Researchers examined global sales data from 2016 to 2023, noting a rapid rise in EV sales across 32 countries, with the worldwide fleet of electric and hybrid vehicles doubling every 1.5 years.
The majority of these sales occurred in key markets such as the EU, China, and the US, where sales have doubled every 1.3, 1.0, and 1.7 years, respectively. Conversely, traditional car sales have steadily declined since around 2019, a trend exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Volatility
As economies rebounded post-pandemic, sales of fossil fuel vehicles continued to decrease, while EV and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) sales remained robust.
The researchers point to the swift increase in EV market share, the sharp drop in combustion vehicle sales, and the waning resilience of fossil-fuel vehicle markets as key indicators of a positive tipping point. Additionally, the expanding variety of electric vehicles and the shrinking diversity of traditional vehicles further support this trend.
Price parity is another crucial indicator, with advanced models forecasting that Europe and China will reach this point between 2025 and 2028. The US, Canada, and South Korea are expected to follow between 2026 and 2030, with the rest of the world achieving it between 2030 and 2035.
These critical indicators were identified by examining the volatility of market shares of conventional vehicles in the years before the COVID pandemic, where fluctuations became increasingly intense yet slower.
Self-propelling
According to the researchers, this pattern mirrors the classic signs of a tipping point, often seen in climatological data.
Professor Tim Lenton from the University of Exeter stated, “We show for the first time in market data, early opportunity signals before a positive tipping point where uptake of EVs (and decline of fossil-fuelled cars) becomes self-propelling.
“For markets that haven’t tipped yet, governments and investors can use this signal to indicate where policy efforts and investment can have the biggest bang for their buck. For manufacturers, it provides a strong steer to shift their investment and production lines from fossil fuelled cars to EVs, or risk getting left behind.”
Despite the self-propelling nature of EV adoption in China and Europe, the pace is insufficient to meet existing climate goals, which aim to eliminate transport emissions by 2050 in Europe and 2060 in China.
Policymakers
Researchers suggest that intensifying policy efforts in these leading markets could quicken the tipping point, aligning with climate objectives and reducing EV costs globally. This would enable other countries to join the EV transition more promptly.
