Highlights
The FBI has identified a notable decline in both violent and property crimes.
This article delves into potential explanations and context not typically covered by mainstream media.
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Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Previously served as Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention and Statistics for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Also directed Information Services at the National Crime Prevention Council, taught Criminology and Public Affairs at the University of Maryland, University College, and worked as a police officer. Retired as a senior spokesperson at the federal level.
Advised on presidential and gubernatorial campaigns and contributed to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Produced successful state anti-crime media initiatives.
With 35 years of experience directing award-winning public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies, he has been interviewed thousands of times by major news outlets, often focusing on crime statistics and research. He pioneered the first state and federal podcasting series and developed a unique style of proactive government public relations.
Holds a Certificate of Advanced Study from The Johns Hopkins University.
Author of “Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization,” available on Amazon and other bookstores.
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A detailed overview of crime in recent years is available at “Violent and Property Crime Rates In The U.S.”
Note
Much of the data below is documented in Violent and Property Crime Rates In The U.S.
Article
The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program reports the largest year-to-year decline in violent crime rates from 2024 to 2025 since FBI estimations began in 1936.
Following a May announcement of a 9.3% decrease in violent crime from 2024 to 2025, the FBI published detailed data tables encompassing more than 13 million criminal offenses reported in 2025, supporting the previously released trends:
- Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter offenses fell by an estimated 18.1%.
- Rape offenses saw an estimated 7.6% decrease.
- Aggravated assault figures dropped by an estimated 7.2%.
- Robbery offenses decreased by an estimated 18.5%.
The murder rate in 2025, at 4.1 per 100,000 inhabitants, matches the lowest rates recorded in 1955 and 1956.
Both property and hate crimes also saw a decline in 2025. Reports from law enforcement agencies included 10,881 hate crime incidents and 13,026 related offenses motivated by bias toward race/ethnicity/ancestry, religion, sexual orientation, disability, gender, and gender identity.
This data set reveals a 7.0% reduction in reported hate crime incidents, from 11,404 in 2024 to 10,606 in 2025.
More than 17,000 agencies from state, county, city, tribal, and university and college levels contributed data to the UCR Program, covering 96.2% of the population. Nearly 17,000 (16,791) agencies participated in the Hate Crime Data Collection, with 95.3% of the population covered.
The full analysis is available on the FBI’s Crime Data Explorer.
Why? Context And Background
There is no single reason for the fluctuations in crime rates. Previously, a 20-year decline in reported crimes ended around 2014, leaving criminologists unable to specify why crime decreased during that time. Crime trends do not change uniformly across all categories and measures. Different crime categories and data systems exhibit varying patterns.
The FBI reports are based on REPORTED crimes. Understanding FBI crime data involves recognizing that a significant portion of crime in the US goes unreported. According to the USDOJ’s National Crime Victimization Survey, about 30% of property crimes (comprising 80% of all crime) and approximately half of violent crimes are reported.
The FBI’s new National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) can record up to 10 offenses per incident, offering more detail than the older Summary Reporting System. However, national crime estimates have traditionally used SRS-style counting rules, focusing on the most severe offense in an incident. The FBI and BJS have developed NIBRS-based estimation methods to provide nationally representative estimates. Many additional crimes recorded by the FBI are available to the public only through special reports.
Even with most crimes unreported, the USDOJ’s National Crime Victimization Survey indicates significant increases in violent crime rates, rising by 44% in recent years (2022-2023-2024). This is reportedly the largest increase in violent crime rates ever recorded. The updated National Crime Victimization Survey for 2025 will be released soon.
According to Gallup, fraud and identity theft exceed all FBI-reported crimes combined.
The Major Cities Chiefs Association reports that homicides rose by 50% and aggravated assaults increased by 36% shortly after the pandemic. While a regression towards the mean suggests crime was bound to decrease, this alone cannot account for the magnitude or persistence of the decline.
Gallup also noted a recent surge in Americans expressing fear of crime. Although this has since declined, a large majority continue to express concern.
Why-Reasons
CBS News proposed that in the digital age, fewer people are active in their communities, an idea unfamiliar to me despite following crime news regularly. The CBS crime reporter emphasized societal shifts, particularly people staying home more often.
The New York Times suggested the Trump Effect might have influenced crime rates, although crime was already declining before his presidency. Some pundits argue that the President’s actions in cities like Memphis and Washington, D.C., along with border and immigration efforts, contributed to the decline by prioritizing crime reduction and supporting law enforcement.
Numerous research reports explore crime reduction efforts, most showing limited to no impact. The National Academies of Sciences reported that proactive policing is one approach that appears effective.
If Reported Crime Is Decreasing, There May Be Reasons We Haven’t Considered.
Encouragingly, alcohol consumption, which is closely linked to violence, seems to be on the decline.
The declining rate of younger people in America is noteworthy, as criminology suggests a connection between crime and the number of young individuals in society.
Mental health issues and drug and alcohol use among younger people are decreasing.
Another potential explanation for fewer reported crimes is the high mortality rate from overdoses among chronic substance users, which could have impacted crime statistics by removing enough high-rate offenders from communities. However, this theory has not been extensively studied.
A study in the Journal of Criminology examined whether GLP-1 use is linked to violent crime. It reviewed health records of over two million diabetes patients on GLP-1 receptor agonists, like Ozempic. Findings showed these patients were less likely to develop conditions such as:
- Alcohol use disorders.
- Drug use disorders.
- Suicidal thoughts and self-harm.
- Some neurological and psychiatric conditions include impulse control.
- For decades, criminologists have found that poor impulse control is one of the strongest predictors of violent offending.
Crime trends may be shifting. Reports of fraud and identity theft are rising sharply, according to Gallup and the USDOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics. Criminals might prefer online fraud over risky street robberies, as it is less dangerous and more profitable.
Proponents of gun rights argue that the approximately 300 million privately owned firearms in the US deter criminals.
Property Crimes
The data below reflects these shifts in crime. Note that the FBI’s methodology (or the National Crime Victimization Survey) differs from the reports below. Not all reports are from 2025.
The Street: “Amazon and Walmart hit by $12.8 billion theft surge.” Package theft, or porch piracy, has become a growing problem, according to the latest report issued by Omnisend. “Combining its original research with FBI crime data, the report found that Americans have suffered a loss of roughly $12.8 billion as a result of about 228 million stolen parcels last year alone,” the study showed. Porch piracy is effectively becoming a hidden cost center of e-commerce logistics.
Per Slate and The National Retail Federation, there had been a 93 percent increase in the average number of shoplifting incidents per year compared to before the pandemic, and a 90 percent increase in dollar loss.
Per Gallup, Americans are most likely to have experienced theft, with 14% saying money or property was stolen from them or another household member in the past year. Vandalism, at 12%, is also one of the more common crimes.
According to Gallup, identity theft and scams are almost two to three times the number of total crimes reported by the FBI.
According to Pew, about a third of Americans report having experienced an online shopping scam.
Overall, adults 60 and older reported losing $2.4 billion to fraud, including money lost to investment scams, according to the FTC’s annual report to Congress. That’s up 26.3% from $1.9 billion in 2023.
Retail shrinkage (shoplifting, organized attacks, and employee theft) hit $94.5 billion, CNN. Data from a variety of sources suggest that shoplifting losses continue to increase.
There are 120 million porch package thefts in the US. Searches for “stolen package” spike every December, according to Google Trends. The survey indicated that there are far more porch pirate thefts than total reported property crimes to the FBI. The financial toll of these thefts is $16 billion.
The Hill (newspaper of Congress) addresses cargo theft. The numbers we do know are concerning. The average value of each cargo theft is more than $200,000, and according to the National Insurance Crime Bureau, there has been a 1,500 percent increase in cargo theft incidents since 2021. Total cargo theft losses increased by 27 percent in 2024 and are projected to rise another 22 percent in 2025.
Check fraud. “This is far from an isolated incident. A recent report from the FBI and the United States Postal Inspection Service (USPIS) shows that cases of check fraud nearly doubled.
Mail Theft. “Letter carrier robberies surged by 845 percent nationwide between fiscal 2019 and 2023, from 64 robberies per year to more than 600. High-volume mail theft has skyrocketed 2,500 percent since 2010, with more than 52,000 reported cases in fiscal 2024, according to federal data obtained by the Postal Police Officers Association.
The data from agencies above includes various dates, suggesting increases. Those increases are obviously not making it into FBI property crime statistics.
Conclusions
Crime was expected to decline after pandemic-related surges, irrespective of local politicians claiming credit. The reasons for crime fluctuations remain uncertain, and there is no consensus.
FBI crime data has numerous pitfalls, such as the majority of unreported crimes, as per the U.S. Department of Justice’s National Crime Victimization Survey. Media reports suggest some police agencies have difficulty accurately recording crime.
The USDOJ’s 50-year-old National Crime Victimization Survey, which indicates a 44% increase in violent crime rates from 2022-2024, provides a logical counterpoint to FBI-reported crimes. However, few reporters or the public understand its contents. The criminological community and federal agencies consider it a more accurate crime measure than FBI data, though they measure differently.
Ultimately, the FBI’s reported crime reductions for 2025 are positive news and seem to mark a turning point following previous significant crime increases.
