For more than two decades, efforts to restore Chinook salmon populations have included setting recovery targets, closing fishing seasons, and limiting tribal catches to a few ceremonial fish. Despite these measures, ocean fleets near British Columbia and Alaska were capturing significantly more salmon each year than official records indicated.
Recently updated figures from Canada, provided via the Pacific Salmon Commission, reveal that ocean fisheries, particularly the recreational sector in British Columbia, caught many more Endangered Species Act-listed Puget Sound Chinook than previously thought. This under-reporting spans two decades and serves as a stark reminder of the precarious state of Chinook populations, described as “in crisis” by the Washington State Recreation and Conservation Office. The treaty governing these fisheries is currently under renegotiation because Southern Resident orcas, which rely on salmon, are also at historically low numbers.
Dr. Nick Gayeski, a Senior Ecologist at Wild Fish Conservancy, stated, “We already knew Puget Sound Chinook and Southern Resident killer whales were in crisis. Canada’s underestimate of recreational Chinook harvest shows that ocean interceptions were substantially higher than previously understood during a critical period for Chinook and killer whale recovery.”
A 60% Toll Before the Fish Reached Home
New estimates indicate that fisheries in Alaska and British Columbia intercepted over 60% of returning adult Chinook in Central and North Puget Sound watersheds, such as the Nooksack, Skagit, and Stillaguamish rivers, before they reached Puget Sound. Distant ocean fleets were catching four to six times more Chinook from these rivers than all Puget Sound tribal, commercial, and recreational fisheries combined.
The local impact is profound. In 2025, the Stillaguamish Tribe in Arlington, Washington, reported a ceremonial harvest of only 26 Chinook from a river their people have fished for generations.
The revised data results from a change in British Columbia’s accounting method, used for approximately 20 years, to estimate catches in “mixed-stock” ocean fisheries. This method had underestimated salmon losses during that time, and Wild Fish Conservancy highlights this issue as a matter of transparency rather than a mere technical detail.
What the Orcas Lost
Southern Resident killer whales primarily consume Chinook, and their decline reflects the long-term loss of these fish. The latest annual census in July 2025 recorded just 74 whales, while the Wild Fish Conservancy counted 76 by mid-2026. Regardless, the population has diminished by about a sixth over two decades, with NOAA scientists identifying the scarcity of large Chinook as the main cause.
Recent research in Communications Earth & Environment suggests that reducing ocean interceptions before the fish reach orca feeding areas could increase Chinook numbers in critical whale habitats by up to 25%, replenishing prey that was being lost at sea while the fishing community expected it to survive and spawn.
What the Models Say Comes Next
Long-term forecasts are concerning if current conditions persist. A 2025 population model predicted that orca numbers could decrease by another 10.6% by 2150 if conditions remain at 2010–2020 levels. The same model showed that the population could grow by 17.6% if Chinook productivity doubled and could more than double if specific runs, like four-year-old Fraser River summer Chinook, rebounded significantly. Essentially, the future of the whales largely depends on the survival of adult salmon.
A study in Scientific Reports highlights a related issue. Ocean fisheries often catch Chinook before they mature—immature fish can make up to 60% of the ocean catch—contributing to reduced body size and reproductive output in future runs. Larger, older females produce more and larger eggs and can reach spawning habitats that smaller fish cannot. Researchers found that when fisheries closer to the rivers allow large adults to pass through, they can achieve greater total weight from fewer fish.
Puget Sound once witnessed 690,000 Chinook returning in a single year. Restoring anything close to that level won’t be achieved by simply adjusting a spreadsheet. However, timing is crucial: the U.S. and Canada are currently renegotiating the Pacific Salmon Treaty, which governs these ocean fisheries. This negotiation window, which opens approximately once a decade, offers the best opportunity to influence the numbers that determine whether salmon and orcas can recover together.
What You Can Do
The most impactful actions individuals can take are collective rather than individual:
- Track the Pacific Salmon Treaty. Public comment periods and stakeholder meetings influence where, when, and how ocean harvests occur. Reforms that shift catch toward rivers and estuaries are the changes researchers say are most important.
- Support in-river fisheries and tribal co-managers. Catching fewer, fully-grown fish closer to home preserves both salmon size and the treaty-reserved rights of Puget Sound tribes.
- Ask where and how your salmon was caught. When shopping or dining, choose river- or terminal-caught Pacific salmon over mixed-stock ocean-troll products when possible. It’s a small step, but it encourages demand for more selective fishing.
- Back habitat restoration in Puget Sound watersheds. Even perfectly counted harvests won’t lead to Chinook recovery without cold, clean, and connected rivers for them to return to.
