Global temperatures are on track to rise more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in the next five years, according to a recent warning from scientists. In 2024, the temperature record broke the 1.5C threshold that countries have agreed to limit global warming to in order to avoid the most dangerous impacts of climate change. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the UK’s Met Office have found an 86 per cent chance that another year in the next five will exceed this threshold.
There is a 70 per cent chance that the five-year global temperature average will be more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. Additionally, there is an 80 per cent chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will set a new record for global temperatures. While there is a possibility that the global average temperature could exceed 2C above pre-industrial levels before 2030, scientists believe this outcome is “exceptionally unlikely”, with only a 1% chance of it occurring.
The analysis also predicts that northern Europe may experience very wet winters over the next five years, increasing the risk of flooding in the region. These findings underscore the urgent need for countries to take action to curb global warming and mitigate the impacts of climate change.
The Paris climate treaty, which aims to limit global warming well below 2C above pre-industrial levels, also includes efforts to limit temperature increases to 1.5C to avoid the worst consequences of climate change. In 2024, the world’s average temperature exceeded 1.5C above the 1850-1900 average due to a combination of human-caused global warming and an El Nino climate phenomenon in the tropical Pacific.
While the likelihood of the next five years surpassing the 1.5C threshold is concerning, long-term warming trends are averaged over 20 years, so this does not indicate a permanent breach of the threshold. However, scientists estimate that current warming levels are around 1.4C above pre-industrial levels, measured from a baseline of 1850-1900.
Professor Adam Scaife from the Met Office stated that the frequency of 1.5C years is increasing and that there is a chance, albeit slim, of a 2C year within the next five years. This would be unprecedented and highlights the urgent need for climate action to prevent such extreme warming scenarios.
The annual global climate update from the WMO and the Met Office also predicts wetter rain patterns for certain regions, such as the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia, and drier conditions over the Amazon. Arctic warming is expected to continue exceeding the global average, with significant impacts on wildlife and communities in the region.
WMO deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett emphasized the urgency of addressing climate change, noting that the past decade has been the warmest on record. The report indicates that there will be no respite from rising temperatures in the coming years, leading to negative impacts on economies, ecosystems, and daily life.
In conclusion, the findings from the WMO and the Met Office underscore the need for immediate action to mitigate the impacts of climate change and prevent further warming of the planet. Emily Beament is a PA environment correspondent.
