Georgia Republicans are preparing for their contentious Senate primary to extend beyond Tuesday night.
Previously seen as a straightforward opportunity for the GOP to gain a seat, the race against Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff has stalled for months, with no candidate emerging as a clear leader and President Donald Trump remaining uninvolved.
Interviews with over half a dozen GOP strategists and campaign officials suggest the race is likely heading for a runoff. Rep. Mike Collins, currently leading, is expected to advance, but it remains uncertain whether he will face Rep. Buddy Carter or former football coach Derek Dooley, who has recently risen in the polls.
This continued battle for the GOP nomination, expected to last until June 16, allows Ossoff to strengthen his financial position and campaign strategies ahead of November. While Republicans believe Ossoff can be defeated, their chances diminish if their primary continues to be prolonged.
“The longer the party stays fractured … that harms the chances in the general election,” stated Jason Shepherd, former Cobb County GOP chair. “The beneficiary of all this is Jon Ossoff. All he has to do right now is continue to raise money.”
Cole Muzio, a conservative activist and president of the Frontline Policy Council who supports Collins, noted a significant portion of voters remain undecided, describing it as surprising for a race initially seen as highly competitive. “It is not a good scenario,” he said.
With Trump not yet intervening, candidates have been left to confront each other independently, revealing divisions over MAGA loyalty. Collins and Carter, both Trump allies, have primarily targeted each other to win over the far-right voters.
Collins, endorsed by the Club for Growth PAC, a leading conservative super PAC, attended a rally with Trump earlier this year. Carter, branding himself as a “trusted MAGA warrior,” has increased his campaign spending in recent weeks, but recent polling suggests Dooley is ahead of him for second place.
This is precisely where Dooley’s campaign aims to position him.
Backed by Gov. Brian Kemp, Dooley has gained momentum by positioning himself as a political outsider and highlighting his connection to a governor whose approval is nearly 20 points higher than Trump’s in Georgia.
Dooley’s surge represents another test of Kemp’s influence against the party’s hardline MAGA faction. Kemp has joined Dooley at numerous campaign events, and Hardworking Americans, a Kemp-aligned PAC, is running ads supporting Dooley.
“I’m totally fine with the timing of where we are, because really all we lost is the D.C. chattering class thinking that Derek didn’t have a chance. I’m more than happy to overperform expectations,” said a senior Dooley adviser, granted anonymity. “Traditionally, you want to be spending your money and peaking when people are voting or right before they’re voting, and that’s what we’ve been able to do.”
Dooley’s campaign declined to comment.
Collins spokesperson Corbin Keown remarked that despite being outspent 15-to-1 in advertising, Georgians have consistently supported Collins for his conservative track record. Carter expressed confidence in his voter support, stating, “Ossoff is desperate to face one of my primary opponents because he knows their baggage would distract from his terrible record.”
Republicans hope that Tuesday’s results — particularly if a runoff occurs — will pressure Trump to endorse a candidate, refocusing national attention on the Georgia Senate race.
Collins’ campaign plans to immediately seek Trump’s endorsement following the primary results.
“We are definitely going to make the case starting Wednesday that it’s clear he’s the best candidate for the general,” stated a Republican strategist close to Collins’ campaign.
Trump’s endorsements have significantly influenced Republican primaries, helping candidates succeed in various states. Despite meetings at the White House, none of the top GOP candidates in Georgia have secured Trump’s public support, leading other party entities, like the National Republican Senatorial Committee, to remain neutral.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
Some Republicans believe external funding will increase after the primary ends.
“Every race in Georgia will tighten between now and Sept. 1, and when it comes time to put resources together, Georgia will be in the fold,” said a GOP strategist close to Kemp. The Senate Leadership Fund, the leading Senate GOP super PAC, has pledged an initial $44 million in Georgia.
Meanwhile, the divided primary has put Republicans at a disadvantage while Ossoff continues fundraising. According to federal campaign finance reports, Ossoff ended the first quarter with $31 million, allowing him to focus on his campaign rather than his GOP challengers.
“[The race] will tighten, I think, but right now, it’s looking a little gloomier than what it normally would just because Ossoff is building a war chest and we’re infighting and all these things,” commented another Georgia-based Republican strategist, unaffiliated with a Senate campaign.
GOP Senate candidates face another challenge: capturing voter attention amidst the high-profile gubernatorial race.
Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and billionaire Rick Jackson, engaged in their own costly primary, have spent a combined $94 million, saturating the media with ads and mailers, making it tough for other candidates to gain visibility.
“The challenge for the Senate race is you’re not going to see a slowdown in spending in the governor’s race come the runoff,” Muzio noted. “Can any of these guys really elevate above the noise to make a clear message?”
