Democrats Eye New Opportunity in Texas Amid GOP Turmoil
In the heart of Texas, Democrats perceive a golden opportunity emerging from the ashes of Republican mismanagement, where the resolution of one scandal may have unwittingly ignited another.
Rep. Tony Gonzales’ abrupt exit from the reelection race—prompted by a scandal surrounding infidelity—has catapulted Brandon Herrera, a polarizing social media persona better known as “TheAKGuy,” into the spotlight as the Republican nominee for Texas’ 23rd Congressional District.
Democrats are optimistic that the convergence of scandal, a GOP candidate with a penchant for controversy, a resurgence of Latino voters in Texas, and an intensely competitive Senate race could collectively elevate Democratic turnout sufficient to flip this district for the first time in a decade.
“It’s definitely more competitive than it’s ever been,” remarked former Rep. Pete Gallego (D-Texas), who previously held the seat until 2014.
The primary catalyst for increased competitiveness appears to be Herrera himself. The YouTuber, gun manufacturer, and Second Amendment advocate boasts millions of online followers and a history of questionable, edgy humor that lends itself well to campaign attack ads. His track record includes a troubling history of posting Nazi-themed imagery and affiliation with the Sons of Confederate Veterans. His infamous quip, “I often think about putting a gun in my mouth. So, I’m basically an honorary veteran,” ignited significant backlash during his 2024 primary against Gonzales.
Requests for comment from Herrera went unanswered.
Following Gonzales’ withdrawal from the race on Thursday night, the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC wasted no time unleashing a torrent of Herrera’s previous podcast appearances, including one where he is depicted marching while firing a gun to the tune of the German song “Erika,” evocative of Nazi Germany.
Moreover, Democrats are buoyed by the national and local political climate, which appears to be shifting against the GOP.
Texas Republicans, typically a dominant force in statewide politics, have started the 2026 midterms on shaky ground. Sen. John Cornyn, a stalwart of Lone Star conservatism, finds himself embroiled in a contentious runoff election against MAGA-aligned Attorney General Ken Paxton. This unfolding drama could potentially create an opening for Democrats in the Senate race. Furthermore, Latino voters demonstrated considerable turnout in recent Democratic primaries, suggesting a possible pendulum swing back to Democratic alignment among Texas Hispanics after a period of rightward movement.
However, it remains uncertain whether national Democrats will commit resources to this sprawling district.
Covering a heavily Hispanic region that stretches from suburban San Antonio to the outskirts of El Paso, the district presents a formidable challenge for Democrats—though not an insurmountable one. Under the newly gerrymandered Texas map, this district stands as the least Republican-leaning seat currently held by a GOP member in Texas. While President Donald Trump won this district by 17 points in 2024, Hillary Clinton narrowly carried it in 2016.
As of now, neither the House Democratic campaign committee nor its principal aligned super PAC have publicly declared intentions to invest in flipping the seat.
Although the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is not currently designating the district as a target, it is closely monitoring the race, according to a source familiar with the national Democrats’ strategy, who requested anonymity for candid discussion. The group quickly amplified Herrera’s nomination in a recent statement.
“Nothing is off the table” regarding potential spending in the district, stated a spokesperson for the House Majority PAC, CJ Warnke.
Previously, Herrera was already engaged in a challenging primary race against Gonzales. However, the congressman’s scandalous revelations consumed his campaign and ultimately forced him to withdraw from reelection. Text messages published by the San Antonio Express-News and other outlets last month revealed new evidence of an affair between the congressman and a staffer, who later tragically took her own life. POLITICO has not independently verified the messages.
Gonzales eventually acknowledged the affair with former staffer Regina Santos-Aviles, and on Thursday night, he opted to end his reelection bid amid mounting pressure from Republican leadership to step aside.
Democrats posit that Herrera comes with his own significant baggage that may prove detrimental to his campaign.
“Maybe I’m just an old-fashioned East Texas farm kid, but I tend to be anti-Nazi, and I have a feeling that people on the western side of the state feel a similar way,” remarked Kendall Scudder, chair of the Texas Democratic Party.
“So, you know, go ahead and nominate the adulterer, sexual predator, or nominate the actual Nazi. Regardless, we outvoted them, and we’re going to do it again in November,” he added, pointing to strong Democratic turnout in recent primaries.
With Herrera as the GOP nominee, local attorney and the Democratic nominee Katy Padilla Stout noted, “this makes for a little bit of an easier campaign because he’s not as well known as Gonzales.”
National Republicans, however, were quick to downplay their opponents’ aspirations to expand the battleground House map into West Texas.
“Texas’ 23rd District is deep red, and Democrats know it,” asserted Christian Martinez, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “While they talk a big game in Washington, they don’t even have a credible recruit and are too busy defending their own vulnerable members across Texas to compete here.”
Despite the district’s design favoring the GOP, former Congressman Gallego pointed out that it is “pretty moderate and they’re practical people.” He added that the northern side of San Antonio, at the far eastern end of the district map, “is not a monolithic Republican stronghold anymore,” providing Democrats with more leeway to navigate around Herrera, a staunch conservative.
After Gonzales concluded his bid, Padilla Stout recalled thinking, “I thought for sure it would be the Dems that would be blowing me up.” Contrary to her expectations, it was predominantly Republicans who reached out to her, eager for involvement: “We’re ready, give me a sign. Where do I sign up?”
