China’s Singles Day, also known as Double 11, is the biggest shopping event of the year in the country. This year, the event started on Oct. 14, more than a week earlier than in previous years, as e-commerce giants Alibaba and JD.com anticipate modest growth in overall sales due to tepid consumer spending.
According to Jacob Cooke, co-founder and CEO of WPIC Marketing + Technologies, early indicators suggest that there will be slightly better growth in gross merchandise value (GMV) compared to last year. GMV is a key industry metric that measures sales over time. In 2021, Alibaba reported an 8% increase in GMV while JD.com saw a 28% increase, totaling over $139 billion. This year, Singles Day GMV reached 845 billion yuan ($119.1 billion) as of Oct. 30, with around 80% of sales coming from major e-commerce platforms like Alibaba, JD.com, and PDD.
Cooke predicts about 15% growth in GMV this year, driven by categories that offer experiential-based products rather than luxury items. He notes that consumer habits have shifted, leading to a focus on products like lululemon over high-end luxury brands.
One factor contributing to the boost in sales this year is China’s subsidies for trade-ins of home appliances, which were introduced in late July. The government’s stimulus efforts, including rate cuts on existing mortgages, have further supported sales in the home appliance category. Analysts at UOB Kay Hian predict 4-5% growth in Singles Day GMV, with the home appliance category benefiting from the trade-in program.
In addition to home appliances, categories like toys and collectibles have seen a surge in demand this year. International brands are vying for licenses to tap into this trend, with products based on popular games and animated series flying off the shelves. More than 100,000 products based on licenses for over 1,000 characters were launched on Alibaba’s Tmall platform for Singles Day, including collectible cards, figurines, and clothes.
Despite pockets of growth in certain categories, the overall sentiment around Singles Day this year is described as “much calmer” by industry experts. Chinese consumers are focusing on purchasing products they actually need rather than getting caught up in a buying frenzy for the sake of lower prices. This shift in consumer behavior is expected to drive sales in different categories compared to previous years.
As the shopping promotions officially wrap up on Nov. 11, all eyes will be on the final sales figures and the impact of this year’s Singles Day on China’s retail landscape. James Yang, who leads the Greater China retail division at Bain & Company, has expressed caution when it comes to expectations for this year’s Singles Day sales event. According to Yang, the consultancy firm is not anticipating a significant increase in sales compared to the previous two years.
Both JD and Alibaba, two of the biggest players in the Chinese e-commerce market, are gearing up to release their quarterly financial results. JD’s results are expected to be made public on November 14, while Alibaba will follow suit on November 15.
Singles Day, also known as 11.11, is an annual shopping extravaganza in China that has become the world’s largest online sales event. However, recent years have seen a slowdown in the growth of sales during this event, prompting analysts like Yang to temper their expectations.
Despite the muted outlook, both JD and Alibaba are expected to showcase strong performances in their upcoming earnings reports. Investors and industry experts will be closely watching these results to gauge the health of the Chinese e-commerce sector and the overall consumer sentiment in the country.
The Chinese retail market has been facing challenges in recent years, including economic uncertainties and changing consumer preferences. As such, the performance of JD and Alibaba during Singles Day will provide valuable insights into the current state of the market and the strategies that these companies are employing to stay competitive.
Overall, while expectations may be subdued for this year’s Singles Day event, the upcoming earnings releases from JD and Alibaba are sure to shed light on the ongoing dynamics of the Chinese e-commerce industry. Stay tuned for more updates on the performance of these retail giants in the coming days.
